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Why The UAE Walked Away From OPEC - Video học tiếng Anh
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Why The UAE Walked Away From OPEC
Why The UAE Walked Away From OPEC
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0:01
This is a shocker.
0:02
A bombshell announcement.
0:03
Shock waves through energy markets.
0:05
Some major news in the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates announced today,
0:09
pay attention to this, that it will officially leave OPEC.
0:12
It's a big moment in geopolitics. It’s a big moment in the world's economy.
0:16
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced that after nearly 60 years,
0:23
it was leaving one of the world’s most powerful alliances of oil-producing countries.
0:28
This was a seismic split. But for the seasoned OPEC watchers though,
0:33
this is something that has been rumored for some time now.
0:36
They are saying it's purely an economic decision. They're saying they've got
0:39
different priorities now, but some people are saying it's maybe a bit of a schism,
0:44
a bit of a split between them and the Saudis.
0:46
Within OPEC - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries – Saudi
0:51
Arabia has long been the largest producer and is the de facto leader. That gives it
0:56
significant influence over how much oil OPEC puts into the market, and indirectly, over oil prices.
1:02
But the UAE’s exit isn’t just about oil and who controls it. The war in Iran and
1:08
the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit sea lane,
1:13
have made it clear that this is also about power, politics and shifting alliances in the Gulf.
1:18
The UAE’s departure isn't necessarily a reaction to a single grievance. The UAE has
1:24
a different future in mind, and it doesn't want to wait for consensus to catch up.
1:29
So, why did the UAE really leave OPEC? And what
1:32
does that decision reveal about the country’s post-oil strategy?
1:47
Let's go back to 1960, a very different world. Post 1945, post the war, oil was dominated by
1:56
seven big players, but none of them were countries. They were all oil companies.
2:01
Together, the so-called Seven Sisters controlled around 85% of the world’s petroleum reserves.
2:08
So, the countries thought, hang on a second, we want to take back control, so that's why,
2:12
1960, five countries, four out of the Middle East, plus Venezuela, started OPEC to wrest
2:18
control away from those Western oil companies and gain control of their immense reserves.
2:23
The Emirate of Abu Dhabi joined in 1967 – four years before the formation of
2:27
the United Arab Emirates. Over time, the UAE became one of OPEC’s most important members,
2:33
with the group’s second-largest spare production capacity after Saudi Arabia.
2:38
For decades, OPEC has used production quotas to limit supply and help stabilize oil
2:43
markets. But those quotas have also been a recurring source of tension,
2:48
especially for countries that want to pump more.
2:50
Angola’s exit, for example, followed a dispute over its production quota. Ecuador
2:55
also left after arguing that membership no longer served its economic interests.
3:00
Consider the UAE’s oil production capacity. As of 2025, the country could extract 4.85
3:06
million barrels per day. But under OPEC’s limits, its quota was just under 3.5 million
3:11
barrels per day, leaving roughly 1.3 million barrels a day of potential output unused.
3:17
The quotas were becoming a bit of an irritant for Abu Dhabi, and when I've spoken to senior
3:22
Emirati officials over the years, you could really hear that frustration beneath the
3:27
diplomatic language. OPEC's framework made perfect sense for the small oil independent
3:32
state that the UAE once was. But this economy is increasingly sophisticated.
3:38
And OPEC’s grip on the market has been weakening.
3:41
OPEC+ still produces a large share of the world’s crude. But its share has fallen,
3:46
from just over half of global production in 2016 to less than half by 2023.
3:51
That’s partly because more of the growth is now coming from outside the alliance,
3:55
in countries such as the U.S., Canada and Brazil.
3:59
OPEC really underestimated non-OPEC, the Canadians with their oil sands,
4:03
the Americans with their shale and other producers out there,
4:06
including the likes of the Chinese and one or two European players.
4:09
The feeling is that some of these producers want to capitalize on
4:13
these immense reserves before the world moves on to other products. When you're
4:19
sitting on over 100 billion barrels in the ground, you're thinking, "Well, are we ever
4:24
going to get this stuff out the ground? Are we ever going to be able to monetize it?"
4:27
Capitalizing on its reserves has become more urgent for the UAE and other oil producers.
4:32
The strategy now is to use oil to become a post-oil economy. Some of the fastest growing
4:38
sectors of the economy here are in areas like tourism and aviation and logistics and advanced
4:45
manufacturing, for example, even life sciences. Oil now represents about 25% of UAE’s GDP,
4:51
and that's down from over 30% in 2013. That is a structural transformation.
4:57
Following the country’s OPEC exit in May 2026, ADNOC – the Abu Dhabi National Oil
5:02
Company – announced $55 billion in project awards through 2028,
5:07
aimed at expanding oil and gas capacity, industrial capacity and local manufacturing.
5:12
The UAE also plans to fast-track a new West-East pipeline,
5:16
designed to bypass chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
5:19
Just days after the UAE’s announcement, OPEC+ — the wider producer alliance that
5:24
includes Russia — announced a modest oil output increase.
5:27
I don't think it's about quotas, because I do believe pretty much
5:31
every OPEC member will probably raise production above quotas initially for
5:36
a few months to make up for the lost production right now.
5:40
Which raises the question: if OPEC was already preparing to let members pump more, why leave now?
5:46
Iran attacking eight Gulf states, retaliating against U.S. and Israeli strikes Saturday.
5:52
The Iran war basically changed everything about how the UAE views its regional relationships.
5:57
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched wide-scale,
6:01
coordinated airstrikes on Iranian targets, triggering a wider regional conflict.
6:06
Iran targeted Emirati territory directly. They sent smoke over Dubai's skyline.
6:12
Abu Dhabi really absorbed those attacks largely alone.
6:16
The attacks included energy infrastructure in Fujairah, one of the UAE’s key oil hubs.
6:22
Sitting over the table with Iran in OPEC, perhaps they're finding that more and more difficult.
6:27
For the Middle East, across the board, the damage to infrastructure should not
6:32
be underestimated. And this is not just about oil, right? Some of the countries have openly
6:36
come out and said the damage that has been done to upstream gas infrastructure. And remember,
6:40
a lot of this gas is associated gas, and if the gas can't flow, the oil can't flow either.
6:46
The war also changed the mood inside OPEC.
6:49
In my history, there's always been angst with Iran and some of the other GCC nations as well,
6:55
but they've always said at OPEC, we leave the politics at the door,
6:58
and it's purely about price and oil. The recent conflict has really tested that.
7:02
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the standard setters for Gulf foreign policy. These are
7:07
countries that are brothers and partners, but it's also fair to say, like most families,
7:12
they have their differences. What really looked like an unbreakable alliance a decade
7:16
ago has developed some fault lines. More recently, these countries are
7:20
on the opposite sides of a growing list of pressure points, including Sudan and Yemen.
7:26
The GCC countries, the Gulf Cooperation countries, have had a really good
7:30
relationship over the years as well, but rivalry over financial services, over trade, over tourism,
7:34
over a whole host of issues as well, certainly appears to be coming to the fore as well.
7:39
The UAE aligned very closely with the U.S. and Israel at the onset of the war,
7:44
while Saudi Arabia has worked more quiet diplomatic channels and Riyadh
7:49
has also come to view elements of that UAE alignment in poor light.
7:54
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the U.S. in 2020,
7:58
normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states,
8:02
including the UAE. But after the Iran war, those ties took on greater strategic significance.
8:08
The UAE was already a major U.S. security partner,
8:11
and the two countries have deepened cooperation in defense innovation, AI and advanced technology.
8:16
The UAE is going to use higher hydrocarbon revenues now to fund everything from AI
8:21
investments with the most sophisticated American technology partners to deepening its $1.4 trillion
8:28
investment relationship with the United States. The map is genuinely being redrawn. The UAE might
8:33
actually reconsider other regional memberships beyond OPEC, as Abu Dhabi maps out its post war
8:40
future. The UAE’s bet now is that its future belongs in Washington's orbit, in the Abraham
8:46
Accords framework, and of course, at the table of global tech and finance, not at the table of OPEC.
8:52
Ultimately, it's a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down,
8:58
getting everything down. They have it all. He's a great leader actually. So, no,
9:03
I'm okay. They're having some problems in OPEC.
9:07
For the U.S., a weaker OPEC may sound like good news, with more supply and lower oil prices.
9:12
But while many are focused on what the move means for oil prices today, the bigger question
9:17
is what it means for the system that has helped manage oil supply for more than half a century.
9:22
We could see other countries leaving. We could even see a fraying of the OPEC+. What I really
9:27
am interested in is what the relationship between Russia and Saudi will look like going forward.
9:33
But even if countries don't go, what is the adherence to production quotas going to look like?
9:38
I think the market tends to want to write the obituary for OPEC
9:43
all the time, but it's actually been proven wrong time and time again. The
9:46
job of OPEC is to make sure that prices are stable for both consumers and producers.
9:51
I don't think UAE leaving is beneficial or, you know, non-beneficial for anyone.
9:57
This might not even be good for the U.S., because if it does induce volatility, if it does induce
10:02
price declines, then this much lauded U.S. energy independence, that will be under threat.
10:07
And if more producers start prioritizing their own capacity, their own revenues
10:11
and their own national strategies, the market becomes harder to coordinate.
10:15
None of them want a price war, but what they do want is market share. We have to
10:19
put the premise in that these wars will end. Then you're going to have an awful
10:23
lot of production out there. The Russians are going to want to rebuild the economy.
10:26
The Iranians are going to want to rebuild their economy. The Americans, of course,
10:29
are going to want to carry on with their energy independence and enjoying this position they've
10:33
got because they're exporting more U.S. oil product than they have done in decades.
10:38
We very much believe that the world is in a deficit right now. We are losing over a
10:44
billion barrels of oil and it’s going to be needed, more production is going to be
10:47
needed down the line to refill the depleted stocks, to refill new tanks that come up.
10:52
The UAE's exit alone could probably add around 2 million barrels per day
10:56
to global supply. That's going to be really meaningful relief for the
11:00
energy-importing economies and a real headache for the higher-cost producers.
11:05
Looking long-term though, a major producer going fully independent really introduces
11:09
a new competitive dynamic into the global oil markets. Of course, the OPEC group will adapt,
11:14
but it's going to need to become leaner and more flexible to stay relevant in a world where one
11:19
of its most capable members just decided that it no longer needs to be in the room.
