Analysis of the current situation

By Michelle Grattan

The Conversation

Topic: Government and Politics

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will focus on intergenerational equity in the May 12 budget

It's a bad time for baby boomers politically

Intergenerational equity is now a priority for Labor

The government knows many people aged 25-45 resent baby boomers for having more opportunities

The government will stop a private health insurance subsidy for people over 65

This subsidy is unfair between generations, says Health Minister Mark Butler

Removing this subsidy will save $3 billion, which will be used for aged care

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will make intergenerational equity a major part of the budget

Housing unaffordability is a big issue among voters, and the government may change tax rules

Other changes may happen in the tax or housing areas, with a focus on intergenerational equity

First target: the National Disability Insurance Scheme

The government is under pressure not to spend too much, but the NDIS changes will give them some money to use

The NDIS overhaul could save $22 billion over four years

The government is right to fix the NDIS's problems, but it won't be easy

Achieving the projected savings will be very difficult, with many challenges ahead

Much of the pain will be delayed, and the NDIS announcement is out before the budget

The opposition may support the NDIS changes, despite previously criticizing them

The government is preparing the budget, with the prime minister focusing on resilience

Gas is under pressure due to the Middle East conflict

The government is considering a new tax on gas exports, with community support

A Senate inquiry, led by the Greens, is discussing the tax, with Ken Henry arguing for it

Henry says the tax could be used for public debt management, nature repair, and productivity

The revenue from the tax could be invested in a sovereign wealth fund for future generations

While this idea fits with the government's goals, there are warnings about potential downsides

The government may not impose the tax, despite the arguments in favor

In his recent trips, Anthony Albanese emphasized that Australia is a reliable supplier of LNG

Albanese rejected the idea that gas companies pay little tax, citing the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

The government looks at all measures in the budget, but honors contracts and arrangements

Resources Minister Madeleine King is cautious about the tax, while Western Australian Premier Roger Cook opposes it

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Australia, likely to get reassurance about the tax

Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and chief political correspondent

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