Australian Share Market Experiences Decline Following Losses on Wall Street

The Australian stock market has started the day with a decrease in value due to the losses experienced on Wall Street, with ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East being a contributing factor.

The prices of precious metals have increased after initially dropping, indicating a shift in investor sentiment.

Our team of business reporters will be providing updates and insights on the day's financial news, which can be found on our live blog.

It is essential to note that the information provided in this blog is not intended to serve as investment advice.

Key events and live updates will be shared throughout the day, with contributions from our specialist business reporters.

The blog will be led by Adelaide Miller and Emilia Terzon, who will provide updates and analysis on the market's performance.

As of 10:05 am AEDT, the current market price is being closely monitored.

Emilia Terzon reports that the ASX 200 is currently trading at a 0.5% decrease, which is a slight improvement from the morning's performance.

Nine out of eleven sectors are experiencing a decline, with the energy sector being one of the few exceptions due to high oil and gas prices.

The local share market is down today, following the losses on Wall Street overnight, as concerns about the war's impact continue to grow.

The federal government's goal of building 1.2 million homes is becoming increasingly challenging to achieve.

According to Master Builders' forecasts, the 5-year target is currently 73,000 homes behind schedule and is expected to fall short by over 200,000 properties by the deadline in 2029.

The building industry is facing renewed challenges due to the war in the Middle East, including supply issues with plumbing materials and fuel surcharges on construction materials.

Additionally, with inflation expected to rise, interest rates may also increase, affecting people's ability to borrow money for building projects.

Master Builders stated that higher interest rates and ongoing supply constraints make it more difficult to achieve the National Housing Accord.

Housing Minister Clare O'Neil recently discussed Australia's 5-year housing target, describing it as an aspirational goal that requires building more houses than Australia has built in a single year for five consecutive years.

More information on the challenges facing residential building can be found in a previous article.

In other news, the US Treasury has announced that Donald Trump's signature will appear on US paper currency, commemorating the United States' 250th birthday.

This change will be made for the first time since 1861, with Trump's signature replacing the treasurer's.

The president has been known to put his name on various government properties in recent months.

The Kennedy Performing Arts Centre faced backlash after being renamed to include Trump's name.

Westpac economist Luci Ellis believes that the Middle East conflict and fuel crisis are distinct from previous crises and do not require COVID-style policy responses.

Ellis stated that a May rate hike is still possible due to pre-existing domestic reasons, but it is uncertain whether further hikes will be necessary.

She also mentioned that the RBA is unlikely to make an out-of-cycle decision, as the situation does not require it.

By May, the conflict may have de-escalated or escalated, with either scenario having different implications for inflation and growth.

Ellis emphasized that this situation is not comparable to COVID, and policymakers should not respond in the same way.

Renowned economist Bob Gregory believes that Australia is heading towards 'stagflation', characterized by high inflation, rising unemployment, and stagnant growth.

Gregory lived through stagflation in Australia in the 1970s and was a member of the Reserve Bank Board when interest rates were raised above 17% in the early 1990s.

He recently appeared on a podcast, where he discussed the possibility of stagflation occurring in Australia today.

Gregory thinks that stagflation is guaranteed, with inflation and unemployment expected to rise, but the extent of it is uncertain.

He believes that interest rates will increase, but the question is how significant the stagflation will be.

Gregory noted that the situation is different from the 1970s, and the economy is structured differently today.

The podcast discussion can be found online, where Gregory shares his insights on the current economic situation.

Adelaide Miller is handing over the blog to Emilia Terzon, but before doing so, she wanted to share some market analysis from Kyle Rodda.

Rodda starts by saying that the current situation is similar to the initial US and Israeli strikes, which caught markets off guard.

He notes that the markets are positioning for a weekend of escalation, with the US pushing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Rodda believes that the ground invasion is not a foregone conclusion, but the pressure and optionality created by the current situation may lead to military intervention.

The market reaction will depend on whether the operation is successful or leads to further escalation.

Adelaide Miller will be handing over the blog to Emilia Terzon, who will continue to provide updates and analysis on the market's performance.

Emilia Terzon's TV package from last night looked at businesses passing on skyrocketing petrol prices to consumers through fuel surcharges.

A report suggests that real wages have declined over the past 25 years when accounting for housing costs.

The Institute of Public Affairs' examination of the consumer price index (CPI) raises questions about the accuracy of inflation measurements.

IPA Chief Economist Adam Creighton argues that inflation statistics are flawed and dramatically understate the true rise in the cost of living.

The report found that the CPI excludes house prices, which are a significant financial burden for most households.

Creighton believes that excluding house prices from inflation is misleading and does not reflect the actual cost of living experienced by Australians.

The report suggests that once housing is included, real wage gains disappear, and in many cases, are reversed.

This helps explain the growing disconnect between the data and what Australians feel about their financial situation.

The Aussie share market has begun the trading day down 0.6% to 8,476 points, with most sectors experiencing a decline.

There are a few sectors that are up, but the majority are down, with 147 major stocks in the red, 9 unchanged, and 44 gaining.

The top movers include coal mining company New Hope Corporation, while the bottom movers include DroneShield, which is down 8.7%.

The Aussie dollar is currently trading at about 69 US cents.

The ASX 200 has opened down 0.5% to 8,480 points, with more updates to come throughout the day.

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 24.9% of mortgage holders are at risk of mortgage stress in the three months to February 2026.

This is up 1% point from January 2026, after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates in early February to 3.85%.

The record high of 35.6% was reached back in mid-2008, and the share of mortgage holders at risk is forecast to rise to 28.8% in April.

If the RBA raises rates in May by 0.25% to 4.35%, the share of mortgage holders at risk would increase to 30.3%, impacting 1,604,000 mortgage holders.

Fear is emerging that the United States may not be able to find a way to end the war, with senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda discussing the implications.

Following the NAB figures, an interview with Giles Parkinson, founder and editor-in-chief of Renew Economy, discussed the anecdotal evidence suggesting a jump in EV sales due to the war in Iran and fuel price increases.

NAB insights have revealed a dramatic increase in demand for electric vehicles, with both households and businesses looking to reduce the impact of the war in the Middle East.

Since the start of the month, NAB has recorded a 100% increase in EV loans to households, while businesses have seen an 88% increase in EV-related lending enquiries.

NAB Executive for Business Banking Shane Ditcham says the bank is focused on supporting Australian businesses to adapt and stay resilient in the face of fuel price volatility.

The Organisation for Economics Co-operation (OECD) has released its interim report, stating that the war in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy.

Prior to the war, the report said Global GDP growth was projected to remain stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, thanks to robust technology-related investment and the easing of tariffs.

However, the evolving conflict in the Middle East weighs on growth and generates significant uncertainty around global demand.

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the OECD report confirms what is already known, which is that the conflict in the Middle East will drag on global growth and make the inflation challenge harder.

Chalmers believes that Australia is not immune to the global volatility but is in a position of relative strength, with stronger economic growth, low unemployment, and solid wage growth.

The competition watchdog has secured a significant penalty for a cartel, with Daniel Ziffer explaining the details.

Adelaide Miller has been following super giant HESTA for almost a year, after being notified by some of its members about a planned outage.

A recent piece looks at the future viability of HESTA's new admin provider Grow, after noticing that Grow's most recent financial report indicates it is insolvent with a shortfall of nearly $21 million.

The two other major Wall St indexes have also finished in the red, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% to 6,477 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.0% to 45,960 points.

All major sectors finished down, besides Energy and Real Estate, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing Thursday afternoon trading down 2.4% to 23,587 points.

The Nasdaq has suffered its worst sell-off since April 2025, when President Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' global tariffs.

The sell-off has been fuelled by the war in the Middle East and the economic uncertainty being felt across the world.

The current market situation is being closely monitored, with updates and analysis being provided throughout the day.

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