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Iran's strongest weapon
Iran's strongest weapon
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Sous-titres (135)
0:00
Since the US and Israel launched strikes
0:02
on Iran in February, the Straight of
0:04
Hormuz has become the flash point of the
0:07
regional conflict in the Middle East.
0:09
President Trump today repeated his
0:10
demand for Iran to reopen the Strait of
0:13
Hormuz.
0:14
>> A whole civilization could die tonight
0:16
unless Iran agrees to reopen the
0:18
critical strait of Hermuz. Back in 2019,
0:21
we actually published a video piece that
0:23
explained why this narrow strip of
0:25
waterway has been at the center of
0:27
tensions between the US and Iran for
0:29
years. It ended with this line. Each
0:32
run-in has the risk of escalating into
0:34
war, one that could disrupt the jugular
0:37
of the global economy in the process.
0:40
>> Now that war is here. Thousands have
0:44
been killed and millions of lives
0:46
disrupted as violence has exploded
0:48
across the region. All of us on the
0:50
planet are directly tied to the straight
0:53
of war moves through inflation, through
0:56
transport prices, through any imports we
0:59
get. Um, and also through our food
1:02
chain. So, let's revisit the straight of
1:04
Hormuz to explain why the strip of water
1:07
has become Iran's most effective weapon
1:09
to inflict pain on the global economy
1:11
and take control of the war.
1:16
20% of the world's crude oil flows
1:19
through the Strait of Hormuz. A lot of
1:21
it goes to Asia, but the drop in global
1:24
supply during the strait's closure has
1:26
driven up the price of oil to over $100
1:29
a barrel at its peak, up from about $70
1:32
a barrel before the war. In the US, that
1:35
means that the national average price of
1:37
gas has spiked to over $4 a gallon. But
1:40
it's not just oil that moves through the
1:42
straight of Hormuz. closing the straight
1:45
has just cut off a major source of
1:48
supply of uh you know natural resources.
1:50
So energy resources and and uh you know
1:54
fertilizer and and and metals and you
1:56
know sulfur other products uh you know
1:58
helium gas that uh that the global
2:01
economy desperately needs
2:03
>> and there is still no clear path to
2:05
reopening it. Iran can't realistically
2:09
compete with the US and Israel in a
2:11
direct military confrontation. So their
2:13
strongest weapon is control over the
2:16
straight of Hormuz.
2:17
>> The straight of Hormuz was shockingly
2:19
easy to close. So the start of the war
2:22
uh caused insurance insurance companies
2:25
to put a hold on insurance for ships
2:29
moving into the the Persian Gulf through
2:31
the straight of Hormuz. you had this
2:32
sort of steady pace of uh you know sort
2:36
of drum beatat of attacks on ships and
2:38
that's been enough to keep the straight
2:41
all but closed to to ships that don't
2:44
have Iran's permission to travel
2:46
through.
2:47
>> Trump knows that the US and its allies
2:49
are feeling the pain and he has swung
2:52
between different strategies and demands
2:54
to reopen the straight.
2:55
>> He put out this statement saying if Iran
2:57
doesn't open it immediately we're going
2:59
to bomb oil plants, desalination plants.
3:02
etc., etc. And today he's saying really
3:04
the exact opposite, that we don't need
3:07
the straight open. It's not our problem.
3:09
>> But Iran seems intent on continuing to
3:11
use the straight of Hormuz as a high
3:13
value bargaining chip.
3:15
>> They seem to be hanging on to control
3:17
over the Straight of Hormuz, which in,
3:19
you know, in the short run, uh, is is a
3:22
major win for them. Oil exports are
3:24
actually higher now than they've been in
3:26
a couple of years. for a lot of those
3:28
exports, Iran will uh get, you know,
3:31
really high price. All that adds up to
3:33
is to a big increase in in in oil
3:35
revenues for Iran. The longer the US
3:37
holds out, the longer it will shoulder
3:39
the blame for starving the global
3:41
economy of essential items.
3:43
>> Nobody knows where Iran's, you know,
3:46
inflection point lies. It's been
3:50
a remarkable amount of pain that Iran
3:52
has been able to withstand. keeping the
3:54
straight closed, kind of keeping the
3:56
pressure on the global economy to
3:59
indirectly pressure the United States.
4:00
I'd say Iran's been remarkably
4:03
successful in this.
4:04
>> Trump's threats to destroy civilian
4:06
infrastructure if Iran doesn't
4:08
permanently reopen the strait might also
4:11
not be as effective as he thinks they
4:13
are. There is very little the US can do
4:16
uh you know short of a fullscale
4:18
invasion of the country uh to keep that
4:21
straight open against uh Iranian
4:24
political wishes.
4:25
>> Opening the straight wasn't the main US
4:27
objective when the war started. It was
4:29
already open. But now that it is closed,
4:32
Iran can put pressure on the US to back
4:34
off its stated goals like dismantling or
4:36
restricting Iran's nuclear program. That
4:39
could make things tough for Trump as he
4:41
negotiates over the strait. The
4:43
president needs an off-ramp for the war
4:45
in Iran as casualties mount and its
4:47
unpopularity drags down his approval
4:50
ratings in a crucial midterm election
4:52
year. The US seems to be uh you know
4:55
looking really fairly desperately for
4:58
ways to extract itself from this. The
5:00
lowest acceptable solution is just to
5:03
reopen the straight and get some kind of
5:05
Iranian agreement to allow ships through
5:07
there. However this ends, Iran has
5:10
proven how essential this waterway is to
5:12
the well-being of the global economy and
5:15
how many losses they're willing to
5:16
endure just to keep it under their
5:18
control.
