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$39 Trillion Debt. The American Economy is DOOMED. - Video học tiếng Anh
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$39 Trillion Debt. The American Economy is DOOMED.
$39 Trillion Debt. The American Economy is DOOMED.
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0:00
America is drowning in debt. $39 trillion of it.
0:05
If you spent $1 million every single day since the birth of Christ,
0:09
you still wouldn’t reach $1 trillion. That’s not even 2% of what America owes.
0:15
It works out to roughly $114,000 for every single American. You’ve been told it’s backed by the
0:21
“full faith and credit” of the government. You’ve been told to trust the process.
0:25
You’ve been lied to.
0:27
It’s held together by a system you’ve never seen,
0:29
never voted for… and probably never even thought about. It’s a global system that
0:34
forces the entire world to keep using the dollar just to survive. Now, it’s starting to crack.
0:40
Countries controlling nearly half the world's daily oil supply are tearing that system apart
0:44
When it breaks, it won’t happen to “them.”
0:47
It happens to you. Chapter One: The $39 Trillion Illusion
0:52
The U.S. dollar appears in nearly 90% of all foreign exchange transactions on Earth. Nine
0:57
out of ten times a currency changes hands on this planet, one of those currencies is the dollar.
1:03
When you figure that the earth currently has 180 national currencies,
1:06
it’s clear that the dollar is the operating system the rest run on.
1:10
What built this behemoth?
1:12
Trade data and decades of financial flows point to one central mechanism… the global oil market,
1:18
which is also, ironically, denominated in dollars.
1:21
The global oil market is worth approximately $2.5 trillion per year. In physical terms,
1:26
that’s larger than the market value of the globe’s gold, iron ore, copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc,
1:33
lead, tin, cobalt, and lithium markets… combined. Oil is the single largest traded good in human
1:40
history. And for 50 years, the vast majority of it had to be purchased in American dollars.
1:45
A Japanese company buying Saudi oil has to convert yen to dollars first. French
1:50
refineries importing Kuwaiti crude must buy dollars first.
1:54
Indian power plants importing Iraqi oil have to buy dollars first.
1:57
It all creates an insatiable demand for U.S. currency.
2:01
That demand is what absorbs American inflation. It’s also what lets the Federal Reserve print
2:05
money without immediately destroying the purchasing power of every American paycheck.
2:09
The only reason your groceries aren’t more expensive than they already are is
2:13
because the central banks of Tokyo, Frankfurt, New Delhi,
2:16
and Seoul are soaking up trillions of American dollars each year just to keep their lights on.
2:21
And now, it’s quietly coming apart.
2:23
Unlike most of the rest of the world, the United States exports more oil than it imports,
2:28
mostly from either Mexico, or Canada. It’s a convenient, closed North American circuit.
2:33
What you may not know is that the United States is currently the single largest oil
2:37
producer on Earth, producing more than it consumes. So while the U.S. doesn’t
2:41
need to buy oil in dollars, it needs the rest of the world to buy oil in dollars.
2:46
In fact, it depends on it.
2:47
It’s a completely different problem, and one the United States is currently losing.
2:52
Chapter Two: The 1974 Secret Handshake In 1944, the United States gathered 44
2:58
countries in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and made them an offer. America had all the factories,
3:03
most of the gold, and a global military posture that could politely discourage disagreement.
3:08
The deal was simple. Everyone would peg their currency to the dollar. The dollar
3:12
would be pegged to gold at $35 an ounce. In other words, a dollar represented more
3:17
than a piece of paper. It could be a claim on something real. Real gold.
3:22
And for about 20 years, it worked beautifully.
3:25
Then the cracks started to show.
3:27
Then America made some… expensive investments. Vietnam. The Great
3:32
Society. The Space Race. A defense budget that would make a Las Vegas whale blush.
3:37
By the late 1960s, the US was running deficits and printing dollars faster than it had gold
3:42
to back them. That’s when the Europeans, the French in particular, started doing the math.
3:47
They started looking at how many dollars were actually circulating. Then they
3:50
looked at America’s gold reserves, and decided the numbers weren’t adding up.
3:55
So they started cashing out. Literally.
3:58
They loaded dollars onto hundreds of planes and ships and came back with gold. Over 3 years,
4:04
France repatriated over 3,000 tons of gold to its vaults. Other countries followed.
4:09
America’s gold reserves, once 80% of the world’s supply,
4:12
started draining fast. By 1971, the jig was up.
4:16
So Richard Nixon went on television and closed the gold window.
4:19
He announced that effective immediately, U.S. dollars were no longer convertible to gold. He
4:24
cancelled Bretton Woods with no warning and no vote. The Americans called it the “Nixon shock.”
4:30
The French called it several things that don’t translate politely.
4:34
Suddenly, the global financial system, previously tied to gold,
4:37
was now built on, well, a vague sense of trust that America would behave
4:42
responsibly. Given the preceding decade, it was quite a lot to ask.
4:45
Over the next few years, things got weird. Currencies floated against each
4:49
other with no anchor, which led to a massive spike in inflation.
4:52
The system was held together by good vibes and crossed fingers.
4:56
Then, in October 1973, the Arab members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, declared an oil embargo
5:02
against the United States. Prices quadrupled. Gas stations ran dry. Americans lined up around city
5:08
blocks hoping to fill their tanks. The economy, already limping, took a chair to the knees.
5:13
Which is when Henry Kissinger stepped in.
5:15
Kissinger, depending on your perspective, was either a master strategist or a war
5:19
criminal with excellent table manners. What he undeniably was, was effective.
5:24
Something that was in short supply in 1974.
5:27
The dollar had just lost its gold backing. The economy was wobbling.
5:31
The U.S. needed a new reason for the world to want its currency, and fast.
5:35
Kissinger’s solution was almost absurd in its simplicity. If you can’t back the dollar with
5:39
gold, back it with oil, something every single country needs every single day.
5:44
With this idea floating around in his head,
5:46
he went to Saudi Arabia under the pretense of helping modernize infrastructure.
5:50
But behind closed doors, the real deal took shape.
5:53
Saudi Arabia would sell its oil exclusively in U.S. dollars. Which meant every country
5:58
on Earth that needed oil would first need dollars to buy it with. Just like that,
6:03
a country that had quietly walked away from gold had created a new rule…
6:07
If you want energy, you need dollars.
6:10
In exchange, the U.S. guaranteed Saudi Arabia’s security. The Saudis essentially got the most
6:15
powerful bodyguard in history. America got its monetary mojo back. Both parties went home happy.
6:21
Within a year, every major oil producer followed suit. No grand vote. No global
6:26
summit. Saudi Arabia moved, it made sense, and everyone else fell in line.
6:30
And the wildest part?
6:32
Some parts of this arrangement stayed classified
6:34
for over 40 years. The deal that quietly determined the cost of energy, housing,
6:39
and groceries for half a century wasn’t publicly confirmed until 2016. Which tells you something.
6:46
By then, the system had already been
6:47
working almost perfectly without interruption for half a century.
6:51
Until now.
6:53
Chapter Three: Enter the Dragon
6:55
What Kissinger built did something remarkable.
6:57
It took America's greatest vulnerability–a currency no longer backed by anything physical–and
7:03
turned it into its greatest strategic weapon. Once oil was priced in dollars,
7:07
countries no longer used up their dollar reserves… they held onto them.
7:11
And when they held them, they invested them, mostly in U.S. Treasury bonds.
7:16
Which meant that every time a foreign government bought American debt,
7:19
they were effectively financing Washington’s federal government.
7:22
The U.S. built highways, funded wars, expanded its military,
7:26
and won the Cold War, all while the rest of the world helped foot the bill.
7:30
It was like installing a toll booth on the global economy,
7:33
and making every country pass through it just to turn on the lights.
7:36
For 50 years, the toll booth held.
7:38
Then China decided to build a road around it.
7:41
China currently imports nearly 2 million barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia alone. That’s
7:47
enough to fill approximately 127 Olympic-sized swimming pools with crude oil every 24 hours.
7:54
China is now Saudi Arabia’s single largest customer. For years,
7:57
it’s paid for all of that oil in dollars. For each barrel purchased,
8:01
an invisible fee flowed back into the U.S. system, all because of that deal in the 1970s.
8:06
But it was a different development,
8:08
quieter and more technical, that revealed China’s true gameplan.
8:12
In 2021, a project launched out of Basel, Switzerland’s Bank for International Settlements.
8:17
It was called mBridge: the Multiple-“central bank digital currency” (CBDC) Bridge.
8:23
The name is forgettable. The idea is not.
8:27
mBridge is a system that lets countries move money directly between each other
8:30
using digital currencies issued by their own central banks. It avoids intermediaries,
8:35
detours, and most critically, any U.S. oversight.
8:38
To understand why that matters, you have to understand how things work today.
8:42
Right now, if Thailand wants to send money to China, it must bounce it through a chain
8:46
of banks–most of them Western–and ultimately settle the transaction in dollars using SWIFT.
8:52
SWIFT is the messaging system banks use to talk to each other. It processes about $5 trillion a day.
8:58
And because it operates under Western oversight, the U.S. has enormous influence over it.
9:02
Which means it can be weaponized.
9:04
And it has been…
9:05
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the G7 kicked Russian banks out
9:10
of SWIFT and froze approximately $300 billion in Russia’s Western reserves.
9:15
If you’re another country watching that happen, like China, India, or Saudi Arabia,
9:20
you start asking the uncomfortable question: What happens if we’re next?
9:24
China didn’t write a strongly-worded letter in
9:26
response. It simply built its own exit. That’s the gist of mBridge.
9:30
A payment system that routes around SWIFT entirely.
9:34
It went live in 2024. By late 2025, mBridge had processed over
9:38
4,000 transactions worth $55 billion, a massive increase from its early tests.
9:44
But still tiny compared to SWIFT.
9:46
mBridge wasn’t designed to force its users to ask the West’s permission to
9:50
make transactions. It was designed to avoid it. Which makes it something entirely new.
9:55
It’s not a replacement for the toll booth, but certainly a way around.
10:00
America’s financial nuclear weapon, its ability to cut any
10:03
country off from the global economy, doesn’t look so unavoidable anymore.
10:07
And this is where things get scary.
10:09
Chapter Four: The Slow Bleed
10:11
In June 2024, news exploded across the internet
10:14
claiming that Saudi Arabia had allowed its petrodollar agreement to expire.
10:19
The deal was dead. It was time for the dollar to pack its bags. The Saudis were ready to receive
10:23
payments from a grab-bag of currencies, including the Euro, the Rupee, and even the Chinese Yuan.
10:29
It’s a bit of a stretch to say there was ever a “binding” legal contract at all.
10:33
The 1974 bilateral economic agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia had
10:38
technically expired in 2001, and was never the legal foundation of anything.
10:43
The petrodollar system was never a “treaty,” but a structural agreement.
10:47
A self-reinforcing habit pattern of mutual dependency that didn’t need
10:51
to be renewed. It was simply baked into the architecture of global trade itself.
10:55
That system, though, is undeniably unraveling, one yuan-denominated oil transaction at a time.
11:01
Economist Zoltan Pozsar called this transition "Bretton Woods III." His argument, first made
11:06
in March 2022, is that the world is shifting from what he calls “inside money”–paper claims
11:11
on governments, like US Treasury bonds–to “outside money,” physical stuff like gold and commodities.
11:17
His punchline: "Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money."
11:21
When the G7 froze Russia's reserves, it didn't merely punish Russia. It
11:26
told every non-Western central bank on Earth that dollar-denominated assets
11:30
could be confiscated. And that changed the calculus permanently.
11:33
In practice, “dedollarization,” as it’s been called, looks more like
11:36
a slow bleed than an outright crash. The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange
11:41
reserves has dropped from around 85% in the 1970s to roughly 58% today. Sure,
11:47
it took 50 years to get to a number that still is nothing to balk at.
11:50
But that number? It's the lowest point in 2 decades.
11:54
And here’s where all of this might land in your life.
11:57
The U.S. government currently pays over a trillion dollars a year in interest on its
12:01
debt. That’s more than the annual spend of the entire defense and education budgets combined.
12:07
The number is kept from being even more catastrophic because foreign
12:10
governments are constantly buying U.S. treasury bonds.
12:12
It keeps bond prices up and yields, and therefore interest rates, down.
12:17
Mortgage rates track Treasury yields almost exactly. When rates moved from 2.65% to 7.79%
12:24
between 2021 and 2023, the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan jumped by almost $1,300,
12:32
putting car payments and family vacations in jeopardy.
12:34
Now imagine that instead of the Fed raising rates deliberately, the driver is simply fewer countries
12:40
needing to buy dollars for oil. With fewer dollars needed, that’s fewer Treasuries purchased.
12:45
Bond prices quickly fall. Yields rise.
12:48
And mortgage rates follow.
12:50
The Fed can cut the federal funds rate all it wants,
12:52
but it can’t force central banks to keep absorbing American debt.
12:56
And if they stop, the bill lands on you.
12:59
Chapter Five: The Final Domino
13:01
Every global reserve currency in history has eventually lost that status. Every single one.
13:07
The Roman denarius. The Dutch guilder. The British pound sterling. Each one was, in its
13:12
era, the operating system of global commerce. And each one fell when the
13:16
underlying economic logic that made everyone want that currency slowly stopped being true.
13:21
Reserve currencies have the same problem as bad software. Everyone knows a better option exists,
13:26
but switching is a pain. So you keep running the old version until you absolutely can't anymore.
13:31
When Britain finally lost reserve currency status, it didn't go quietly all at once
13:35
in a big apocalyptic bang. It went through decades of inflation, emergency bailouts,
13:40
and a standard of living that steadily declined relative to the rest of the developed world.
13:45
The pound just slowly became less and less relevant. British citizens absorbed
13:49
the cost in ways that never quite showed up on a single front page.
13:53
That’s the template for the dollar today.
13:55
The US is not Britain in 1945. The dollar is vastly more embedded in
14:00
global finance than sterling ever was. But the pattern is the same:
14:04
Build global demand for your currency… then watch that demand erode.
14:08
Britain did it through empire. America did it through oil.
14:12
Now that system is being routed around. BRICS now represents almost 36% of global GDP and
14:18
44% of global oil production. The bloc includes most of the world's largest oil producers.
14:23
mBridge works. CIPS, China's alternative to SWIFT,
14:26
connects 109 countries. India is buying Russian oil in Yuan and Rupees. Brazil
14:31
and China ditched the dollar in their bilateral trade. Saudi Arabia is conducting transactions
14:36
on mBridge while simultaneously declining to formally join BRICS. It’s exactly the kind of
14:42
strategic ambiguity a country maintains when it's keeping its options open.
14:46
None of these systems are the dollar. None of them replace SWIFT on their
14:50
own. But the dollar didn’t take over the world overnight either. It won because, for decades,
14:55
the rules were simple: the world runs on oil, and oil is priced in dollars.
14:59
So if you wanted energy, you needed dollars.
15:02
That’s the part that’s starting to crack.
15:04
America’s $39 trillion debt only works because the rest of the world keeps
15:08
needing dollars. The real question isn’t whether China builds a perfect alternative.
15:12
It’s what happens when the world decides what it’s built is good enough and starts
15:17
moving those trillions somewhere else. Because if that shift actually begins,
15:21
it doesn’t stay contained to currency markets. It spills into interest rates, asset prices,
15:26
and eventually real life. And at that point, the system doesn’t slowly adjust, it snaps into a
15:32
new reality. One we explore in What If The US Economy CRASHES? Or watch this video instead.
