Canada's Oil Exports Get a Boost from Pipeline Expansion

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Canada has seen significant financial gains from selling oil to countries outside of the US, highlighting the need for more pipelines to access coastal waters, according to a report by the MEI think tank.

A recent study by Clean Prosperity, a climate policy non-profit, agrees that a new pipeline to the West Coast could bring huge profits to the oilsands industry, outweighing the increased costs of a higher industrial carbon price.

The MEI report notes that the price difference between light US crude and heavy Alberta crude narrowed by 37.5% after the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was completed in 2024, resulting in a substantial increase in revenue for the industry.

This price gap reduction led to a $16.7 billion increase in industry revenues between June 2024 and November 2025, a significant boost to the Canadian economy.

According to Gabriel Giguère, a senior policy analyst at MEI, the reduced price gap means that Canadian companies can now sell their resources at a higher value, resulting in increased government revenues as well.

Before the Trans Mountain expansion, only 3% of Canada's oil exports went to non-US countries, but this figure rose to 14% in the fourth quarter of 2025, demonstrating the growing demand for Canadian energy.

Giguère emphasizes that the global demand for Canadian energy is real and that new infrastructure has already shown its benefits, highlighting the need for governments to remove regulatory obstacles to new energy projects.

It is essential for governments to take action and facilitate the construction of new energy infrastructure to meet the growing demand for Canadian energy.

These reports come as the Alberta government prepares to submit a regulatory application for a new oil pipeline to the northern British Columbia coast, which could enable the export of up to one million barrels of oilsands crude to Asia.

A recent energy agreement between the Alberta and federal governments sets out conditions for such a project to move forward, including a minimum industrial carbon price of $130 per tonne.

Although no private company has come forward to lead the project, the agreement provides a framework for the implementation of the carbon price, with details to be finalized by April 1.

Premier Danielle Smith stated that officials from both governments are working to iron out the details of the agreement, which includes the implementation of the higher carbon price.

Clean Prosperity's analysis suggests that oilsands producers will be able to easily absorb the increased carbon costs, as they will be able to sell their products at a higher price if a new pipeline is built.

Benjamin Dachis, vice-president of research and outreach at Clean Prosperity, notes that the federal-Alberta agreement can deliver both a climate breakthrough and a significant economic boost to the industry.

The study examined the carbon intensity of four oilsands operations and found that the increased carbon price would result in higher costs, but these would be far outweighed by the increased profitability of selling oil at a higher price.

The analysis found that the costs at the four oilsands facilities studied would rise by between 81 cents and $3.75 per barrel, but the increased profitability would more than offset these costs.

In fact, Clean Prosperity estimates that the net profits at the four oilsands facilities would increase by over $3 billion in the 15 years following the opening of a new pipeline, with Alberta government royalties rising by $957 million.

Proponents of a new West Coast pipeline argue that recent geopolitical instability highlights the need for Canada to increase its oil and gas exports to global markets.

However, others argue that the current conflicts demonstrate the need to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy sources.

The war in the Middle East has revealed the vulnerability of relying on oil and gas, according to Keith Stewart, senior strategist at Greenpeace Canada.

Stewart argues that oil-importing nations are accelerating their transition to renewable energy, which is now cheaper than fossil fuels and cannot be blockaded, making a greener world a safer and more affordable one.

It is essential to consider the facts and the implications of Canada's energy policy on the environment and the economy.

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The need for accurate and reliable information has never been more pressing, and it is crucial to stick to the facts when evaluating the complex issues surrounding Canada's energy policy.

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