Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's situation will be determined by delegates at the party's gathering in Calgary on Friday. While those in his circle are assured that he can evade being ousted, the leader's supporters are doing everything possible to guarantee he surpasses this crucial vote.

Poilievre has been actively reaching out via phone and visiting ridings nationwide to meet with members who will determine if the party continues its current trajectory or initiates another leadership election.

"Primarily, Pierre has been engaging with delegates over recent weeks. He's not leaving anything to chance," stated a senior Conservative figure, who requested anonymity to discuss internal party matters.

Poilievre requires a majority of delegates to oppose initiating what the party designates as a leadership selection process to retain his role, but barely securing over 50 percent would be disastrous.

The focus is on the margin. If a significant number of delegates prefer a different path, Poilievre may encounter scrutiny regarding his viability.

One party insider indicated that Poilievre must achieve results comparable to former prime minister Stephen Harper's performance in his 2005 review—84 percent of the 2,900 delegates backed his leadership—to quell dissent.

When asked in an interview about the percentage Poilievre needs to maintain his position, Conservative MP Andrew Scheer, the party's House leader and a close ally of Poilievre, refrained from providing a specific figure.

"I just want a strong outcome. Our caucus is united. We're focused," Scheer noted, remarking that Poilievre is appealing to new voters, many of whom will be first-time delegates. "We'll see what unfolds in Calgary, but I am optimistic."

Scheer questioned Carney’s “record” and commented on Davos speech.

"I'm not backing down. I don’t give up," Poilievre asserted in a social media video prior to Friday's vote. "I will continue advocating for the Canadian population and their chance at an affordable, secure future."

Convention attendance remains uncertain, and the party announced it will not confirm final delegate numbers until Friday.

What is clear is that the event is taking place in a Prairie city that favors Poilievre—Calgary, his hometown—far removed from the eastern and central population hubs where his backing is weaker.

This gathering coincides with the Ontario Progressive Conservatives convening for their own event, likely benefiting Poilievre given the tensions between federal and provincial factions.

A membership list provided to CBC News showed approximately 350 potential delegates from Quebec as of last week, a figure anticipated to change.

One party insider from the province mentioned that fewer delegates than that number are likely to attend and participate in the review. Ridings in Quebec could have sent up to 936 delegates since each electoral district is allotted up to 12 positions.

This anticipated low turnout from Quebec is also expected to favor Poilievre due to his relatively low popularity in that province, as indicated by recent polls.

Poilievre experienced some favorable outcomes in the last election—the party achieved its best vote share in a generation, gaining support among younger demographics and blue-collar workers specifically. Under Poilievre's leadership, the party also gained seats and succeeded in suburban Toronto ridings that Liberals had dominated for years.

However, his critics argue there is not much to celebrate: the party squandered a significant pre-election polling advantage and ultimately lost to a Liberal newcomer.

Poilievre lost his previously secured seat and only returned to Parliament after relocating to one of the safest Conservative ridings in the country. The party subsequently faced the departure of three MPs due to two floor-crossings and a tumultuous resignation announcement.

Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole wrote in The Walrus this week that 2025 was the party's "annus horribilis."

Polling also indicates that Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval ratings have remained consistent or even improved since the April election.

A Leger poll published on Wednesday shows the Liberals are performing well with 47 percent of the vote among decided voters, contrasted with 38 percent for the Conservatives—a statistic suggesting a majority Liberal government is attainable.

According to Abacus Data, Poilievre's personal ratings have dropped to their lowest since the polling firm began monitoring that data in mid-2023.

Still, Abacus also determined that Poilievre enjoys substantial backing among the party's base, drawn to his populist approach to conservatism that sharply focuses on crime, immigration, affordability, and holding the Liberal government accountable for its failures.

Unlike previous leaders O'Toole and Scheer, Poilievre is not dealing with any significant internal dissent.

Members of the Conservative caucus have publicly withheld negative comments about Poilievre, although one did tell CBC News they would express their criticisms openly if Poilievre delivers a poor outcome in the review.

"Some individuals are not content, and I believe that will be reflected in the voting. You cannot predict what supposedly loyal individuals will do in the confidentiality of the voting booth," said this Conservative, adding that Poilievre longs for a time prior to U.S. President Donald Trump's disruption of Canadian politics.

"Pierre has not adapted any lessons and continues the same patterns he has always followed. He simply wants to revert to a time reminiscent of October 2024."

Sebastian Skamski, a former spokesperson for Poilievre, asserted that not all is lost for the Conservative party.

While Trump's controversies dominate the news cycle, numerous polls indicate that affordability and cost of living concerns are also top priorities for voters, and Poilievre is an effective communicator on that front, Skamski mentioned in an interview.

"While Prime Minister Carney may deliver grand statements and receive applause in Davos, for the average Canadian, it's hard to see how that ties back to their paycheck and ability to provide food for their family," he stated.

"Poilievre can present a vision of hope and opportunity."

Moreover, Poilievre still commands significant support among party members because he has managed to revitalize the party and unite a coalition of voters that seemed unthinkable only a few years ago, he noted.

Poilievre is significantly resonating with younger and working-class individuals most affected by inflation, he observed.

"This is someone who has been proven through experience, who has a campaign under his belt. He has greatly inspired many Canadians—large segments of the population are prepared to vote for his vision. It's not as dire as the Liberals and the media portray it," Skamski remarked.

Poilievre has enlisted his former campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, to assist with planning this convention and rallying delegates to ensure a positive outcome.

While Byrne has reduced her involvement in the daily operations of the leader's office since the election, she remains a trusted partner and advisor within the party, albeit a controversial one among some MPs.

Minutes from the party's previous national council meeting in December, acquired by CBC News, indicate she served as Poilievre's personal representative during discussions on matters such as nomination rules.

Byrne also held a similar role at the preceding meeting, according to a national council member.

"Some of us were led to believe she would no longer participate, yet she was present, evidently," stated this councillor. "It's always her speaking on behalf of the leader. Some things remain unchanged."