Polls predict easy Labor win in SA, but One Nation will be closely watched

ABC21-03-2026

Polls predict easy Labor win in SA, but One Nation will be closely watched

By Leah MacLennan

Topic:State and Territory Elections

Political enthusiasts around the country will be watching how Pauline Hanson's One Nation party performs in South Australia's state election today. (ABC News: Briana Fiore)

One Nation isn't shying away from the national significance of today.

"The country is watching what happens in South Australia," the right-wing party's star recruit, Barnaby Joyce, said this week.

For the first time since One Nation's dramatic opinion polling surge in late 2025, voters in the SA election are about to cast their ballots.

And it will give political watchers across the country a better answer to some key questions.

Will that opinion polling surge be replicated for One Nation on election day? And will that translate into Pauline Hanson's party winning lower house seats?

Pauline Hanson announced Cory Bernardi would be One Nation's South Australian lead candidate last month. (ABC News: Briana Fiore)

Beyond state borders

Greater clarity on those questions isn't the only reason South Australia's election will have implications far beyond the state's borders.

The question with the campaign has never been about who will form government.

Labor has a commanding lead in the polls, as Premier Peter Malinauskas seeks a second term in office.

The party has long dominated South Australian politics, winning five of the past six state elections and governing for 20 of the past 24 years.

Both the polls and pundits are expecting that to continue — with Labor spending this campaign playing offence, targeting a swathe of what were once extremely safe Liberal-held seats.

But exactly who Labor will be beating — and who it will face in the next parliament — is the key question.

One Nation was polling ahead of the Liberals. (ABC News: Briana Fiore)

The Liberal opposition is languishing in third spot in the polls, with Newspoll putting its primary support at just 16 per cent.

If that number is replicated at the ballot box today, it would be a staggering drop in support from the election four years ago — when nearly 36 per cent of people voted Liberal.

If a result like that came to fruition, every single Liberal Lower House seat would be in jeopardy — including leader Ashton Hurn's electorate of Schubert (currently held by a margin of 11.9 per cent).

Meanwhile, One Nation is polling significantly ahead of the Liberals — with multiple opinion polls putting its primary vote in the 20s.

All of that means there are some seriously big questions Liberals will be pondering tonight as the results come in.

Will conservative seats, particularly in the bush, be seized by One Nation?

Liberals, like the party's SA leader Ashton Hurn, will be keeping a close eye on the results. (ABC News: Daniel Taylor)

If One Nation does win lower house seats, will enough Liberals hold on to ensure they remain the official opposition in the next parliament?

And, if tonight does turn into a true nightmare for the opposition, will there be any of them left in the lower house?

If the answers to any or all of those questions does not go the way Liberals hope, the impact across Australia will be seismic.

From Canberra to state branches across the country, it would lead to deep soul-searching and the asking of existential questions if tonight's result is anything like what the polls are pointing to.

No doubt, then, Liberals across Australia will be keeping a close eye on tonight's results as they come in.

Possible polling day fizzle?

As polling day has drawn closer, South Australian Liberals have comforted themselves by one recent high-profile example of a third-party challenger spectacularly flaming out.

Nick Xenophon's 2018 campaign is an example Ms Hurn has pointed to, when questioned about her party's dire opinion poll results.

Months before polling day, Mr Xenophon's SA Best was polling ahead of both Labor and the Liberals — prompting questions about whether the former senator could even end up premier.

In the end, he didn't even make it into parliament.

SA Best came in a distant third, with 14 per cent of the vote, and didn't win a lower house seat.

Like this election, that poll had threatened to deliver a shock that would have been felt in politics nationwide.

Liberals are hoping that, just like in 2018, today's third-party challenger also fizzles out.

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