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Why There Will Be No More Superpowers - Video học tiếng Anh
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Why There Will Be No More Superpowers
Why There Will Be No More Superpowers
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자막 (225)
0:00
Everyone's talking about who will be the next superpower, but they're all wrong. There won't
0:05
be any more superpowers. And this is why. Let's be clear. The conditions that created superpowers,
0:11
the unique circumstances of the 19th and 20th centuries don't exist anymore. The game has
0:16
fundamentally changed. You can think of superpower status like a scorecard. Because superpower status
0:22
isn't one thing. It is six things all at once. military reach, economic scale, energy
0:28
independence, strategic geography, technological dominance, alliances. Each is important in its own
0:35
right. But the catch is that any country aspiring to global dominance must excel in all categories
0:40
simultaneously. And that is far harder than it sounds. And it's why every major contender, China,
0:46
India, and even the EU inevitably falls short. And at the end, we'll put every contender back on the
0:51
scorecard so you can see exactly where each one falls. Superpower doesn't just mean powerful or
0:57
influential. France is influential. Saudi Arabia is powerful. Neither is a superpower. A superpower
1:03
embodies dominance across multiple dimensions of influence simultaneously. Military, economic,
1:08
technological, geographic, all of it, all at once with global reach. The British Empire came close,
1:14
but it lacked certain industrial capacities and faced constant imperial overstretch. The
1:19
Soviet Union had massive military might, but its economy was brittle, ultimately shattering under
1:25
its own weight. The United States after 1991, well, that that was something different. That
1:31
was truly a unipolar moment. A superpower with the world's largest economy, best technology and
1:37
reserve currency, most protected geography, and the densest alliance networks. It was everything
1:42
everywhere, all working together all at once. You can think of the concept of becoming a global
1:47
superpower like a strategy video game where you're designing the perfect empire. You have to have a
1:52
high score in all of the following areas. The first is military reach. And no, that doesn't
1:57
mean that you just need a strong army with plenty of tanks to overrun your closest enemy. You need
2:03
to be able to project your power far beyond the oceanic horizons. That means building a bluewater
2:08
navy that can operate anywhere with impunity. So you'll need overseas bases on multiple continents.
2:14
and you'll need the ability to not just fight, but win wars thousands of miles from home.
2:19
Military reach is the clearest indicator, but it is completely contingent on category number two,
2:24
economic scale. GDP matters, sure, but you also need a massive domestic marketplace that other
2:30
nations depend on accessing. You need a currency that everyone uses and the economic leverage to
2:36
reward friends and punish enemies wherever they might live. Your economy runs on energy, the third
2:42
category. If someone can turn off your lights, you are not a superpower. You either need vast
2:47
domestic resources or completely secure supply chains that can't be disrupted. And today, that
2:53
is becoming harder than ever. It helps if you've got some natural defenses, which fit nicely into
2:58
our fourth category, which we'll call strategic geography. Natural defenses make invading you
3:03
nearly impossible. Things like oceans, mountains, and friendly neighbors. It helps if you can
3:08
lock down on choke points, shipping straits, financial systems, internet infrastructure,
3:12
and tech supply chains. Which leads to our fifth category, technological dominance. You need near
3:19
monopolistic control over critical technologies that other countries depend on and cannot easily
3:24
replicate. Being really good at making slightly better smartphones every year doesn't count.
3:30
We're talking about the kind of tech strangle hold where everyone else is basically renting
3:34
their future from you. Lastly, you need a network of reliable partners who amplify your power rather
3:40
than drain it. This is known as alliance architecture. Prospective partners must be
3:45
willing to follow your lead in crisis, host your military bases, and adopt or at least tolerate
3:50
your cultural standards. There's other categories to consider. Of course, it's said that population
3:55
drives geopolitics. In other words, it helps if you've got a stable birth rate and favorable
4:00
demographic trends. Diplomatic influence matters. Your history matters. cultural influence matters.
4:06
All these fall under relatively subjective categories of soft power that are difficult
4:10
to empirically pin down. But on the whole, if you were building the ideal superpower from scratch,
4:16
you would probably create something along these lines. A massive country with protective oceans
4:20
on both sides. Hundreds of millions of people, energy resources for centuries, the world's
4:26
financial center, technology monopolies others cannot break, military bases on every continent,
4:31
and allies who actually show up when you need them. This was achievable in 1945 when the US
4:37
emerged from World War II with 50% of global GDP, untouched infrastructure,
4:42
and a nuclear monopoly. In 2026, that is a whole different story. The rules that built superpowers
4:49
don't work anymore. Three fundamental shifts have made the past century superpower model
4:53
obsolete. We'll start with reason number one. War no longer pays. For most of human history,
4:59
conquest was profitable. Rome expanded and gained productive provinces. Britain built an empire
5:04
that generated enormous resource wealth through trade and extraction. Even America's continental
5:09
expansion, added valuable territory and opportunity. Today, the economics have reversed.
5:14
Modern warfare is economically destructive. Look at Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As of late 2024,
5:20
estimates suggest Russia has spent well over $200 billion on the war while suffering hundreds of
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thousands of casualties to gain what? Devastated territories with destroyed infrastructure,
5:32
international sanctions, and pariah status that cost the economy an estimated $1.3 trillion
5:38
through 2026. A military that has burned through decades of Soviet era stockpiles. The West hasn't
5:44
had it much better. Even supposedly successful modern wars rarely break even. Brown University
5:50
researchers estimate that the 20-year global wars on terror cost the US somewhere in the region of
5:56
$8 trillion. In Iraq, the supposed prize, Iraqi oil, never materialized as a benefit that came
6:02
close to offsetting costs there and elsewhere. Despite tactical and technological superiority,
6:08
political decision-making and strategic withdrawal created massive power vacuums,
6:13
the broader region is just as unstable as ever. So why doesn't war pay anymore? Modern wealth comes
6:19
from complex supply chains, educated workers, and advanced technology. All the things that
6:24
bombs destroy rather than capture. You can seize a semiconductor factory, but without engineers,
6:30
suppliers, and customers, it is just an incredibly expensive paper weight. And then there's the
6:35
nuclear problem. Great power wars between nuclear states risk civilization ending escalation. The
6:42
Cuban missile crisis taught us that the closer two superpowers get to direct conflict, the
6:46
closer we all get to annihilation, and that puts a hard ceiling on just how much conquest is even
6:52
possible. Guerilla warfare and modern insurgencies make occupations nightmarishly expensive. Britain
6:58
grappled with this as its empire dissolved. The US learned this the hard way in Vietnam, Iraq,
7:03
and Afghanistan. Russia previously learned it in Afghanistan and is relearning its lesson in
7:09
Ukraine. You can't just bomb your way to superpower status anymore. In a minute,
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we'll see why China understands this lesson better than anyone and why it shapes their entire
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strategic outlook. But let's discuss reason number two. Economic dominance creates its own wave of
7:23
opposition. It's a paradoxical pattern. The more economically dominant you become, the harder
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everyone works to reduce their dependence on you. But historically, that is just the way the cookies
7:33
crumbled. When Britain dominated global trade in the 1800s, its rising wealth didn't just buy
7:38
influence. It woke up competitors like Germany, Japan, and the US. Each one started building an
7:44
industrial base designed to break Britain's grip. British economic hegemony created the very rivals
7:50
who would challenge it. That same pattern plays out today, albeit far faster. China's Belt and
7:55
Road initiative initially looked brilliant. They were eager to loan money to developing countries
7:59
in exchange for infrastructure agreements, influence, and economic dependence. By 2023,
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China had invested $1 trillion across more than 150 countries. The result, as we have seen,
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has been a form of transparent backlash that wouldn't have been possible a 100 years ago.
8:16
Countries from Sri Lanka to Zambia struggling and saddled with debt accuse China of debt trap
8:21
diplomacy. Maybe both sides should have seen this coming. But rather than creating loyal partners,
8:26
China instead created resentful ones actively looking for alternatives. Sri Lanka's heento port
8:32
leased to China for 99 years after the country couldn't repay its loans became a global symbol of
8:37
predatory lending. US dollar dominance has spawned its own opposition. The BRICS nations, Brazil,
8:43
Russia, India, China, and South Africa have spent years discussing alternatives to dollar-based
8:48
trade. After the US froze Russian central bank assets in 2022, even America's allies began to
8:54
quietly diversify their reserves, worried they could be next. China accelerated its development
9:00
of digital yuan specifically to reduce dollar dependence. Economic coercion teaches countries
9:05
to diversify, not submit. Economic power is now self-limiting. You get too dominant and you teach
9:12
everyone to start working around you. And now it's time for reason number three. Technology can't be
9:17
monopolized anymore. And that is a seismic shift in gaining superpower status. Britain monopolized
9:23
industrial revolution technology for decades, helping secure its own dominance. The US dominated
9:29
computing, aerospace, and nuclear technology for a generation after World War II. These
9:34
monopolies translated directly into superpower status. That is impossible now. Information
9:40
moves in an instant. What once took years to learn through espionage now appears in academic papers,
9:45
patent filings, and hacked databases within months, if not weeks. Reverse engineering used
9:50
to take decades in the 1950s. Today, it can happen in less than a year. Part of the problem is that
9:56
talent is globally mobile. Chinese students earn PhDs at MIT and Stanford and Harvard and
10:01
Yale. Indian engineers work in Silicon Valley and then they return home taking the knowledge
10:06
with them. In 2023, China produced 3.6 million STEM graduates annually compared to America's
10:13
820,000. You can't maintain a knowledge monopoly when the people who create that knowledge move
10:19
so freely between borders. Cyber espionage and offshore manufacturing have obliterated
10:24
technology monopolies. China's alleged theft of the F-35 designs reportedly accelerated their J20
10:29
stealth fighter by years. When Apple offshored iPhone production, Foxcon, a multinational
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electronics manufacturer based in Taiwan, learned how to master the entire manufacturing process,
10:40
not just assembly. The pattern repeats itself everywhere. Smartphones invented in the US in 2007
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now see their market share completely dominated by Chinese companies. In the AI realm, China is
10:53
leading in research and talent, publishing more papers on the subject than in the US.
10:57
More than 80% of all solar panels shipped around the globe themselves invented in the US-based Bell
11:03
Labs in 1954 are now made by China. The knowledge diffusion rate has accelerated catastrophically
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for wouldbe monopolists. Technologies that used to take 50 years to spread globally in 1950 now
11:15
spread in less than five. You can't stay ahead enough to leverage temporary advantages into
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permanent dominance. This is the new reality. War doesn't pay. Economic dominance creates opposition
11:26
and technology can't be monopolized. These three shifts have fundamentally changed what's
11:31
possible. Now, let's see what that means for the countries that everyone thinks will be superpowers
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one day. And we can test the scorecard on the obvious candidate. If anyone looks like the next
11:41
superpower, it's China. Second largest economy at roughly 18 trillion GDP. A modernizing military
11:48
that's added aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, and hypersonic missiles. Leading in 5G technology,
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electric vehicles, and solar manufacturing, a population of 1.4 billion. That should work,
11:59
right? And it would until you see what China depends on to keep the lights on. China imports
12:05
approximately 70% of its oil and 45% of its natural gas. The killer headache is that most of
12:11
that energy arrives via ship through the straits of Malaa, a narrow waterway between Malaysia and
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Indonesia. It is a crucial choke point and it is controlled by US aligned powers. That means
12:22
China's entire economy, all of that manufacturing, all those mega cities, all that military runs on
12:28
energy that passes through a straight the US Navy could slam shut in an afternoon.
12:34
During a Taiwan crisis scenario, this becomes America's ace in the hole. China knows this,
12:38
which is why they're actively exploring building overland pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan.
12:44
But even those can't replace seaborn oil. Not even close. Geography compounds the problem. China is
12:50
surrounded by rivals and potential rivals. India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam all are either allied
12:56
with the US or balancing against Chinese power. Russia is a partner of convenience, not a reliable
13:02
ally in any sense. They all compete in Central Asia and Russia fears long-term Chinese expansion
13:07
into Siberia. And like we said before, China's Belt and Road initiative created resentment,
13:13
not loyal allies. Then there is the demographics. China's population peaked and is now in decline.
13:19
The UN projects their population will now plummet from 1.4 billion to half of its current
13:24
number at less than 800 million by 2100. Their workforce is shrinking right now. Fewer workers,
13:31
more retirees, rising costs. It is the opposite of a superpower trajectory. Looking at the six
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superpower qualifiers, here is China's verdict. a formidable regional power, just not a global
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superpower. And if China can't clear that bar, the next candidate is even tougher. India has in
13:49
spades what China is rapidly losing young people. And in a second, we'll show you why the advantage
13:54
is real, but also why it still doesn't add up to superpower status. With around 1.5 billion
14:00
people and a median age of almost 29, they have got the workforce China desperately needs. They
14:06
are pretty democratic, making Western alliances easier to build. Their geography is defensible
14:10
enough with mountains to the north and oceans to the south. India's problems rest with well
14:16
everything else. Its economy, India's GDP is approximately $4.1 trillion, about a fifth of
14:22
China's and a seventh of America's. Per capita income remains around $2,600, meaning limited
14:28
domestic consumption power. Infrastructure lags decades behind. Power outages are common, roads
14:34
are inadequate, and ports are run inefficiently. The middle income trap looms large. Militarily,
14:39
it's actually pretty strong regionally at least, but it has absolutely zero global reach. India's
14:45
navy is coastal defense embodied, not bluewater power projection. They can't sustain expeditionary
14:51
operations beyond South Asia. And they haven't since they were part of the British Empire during
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World War II. And when was the last time you heard about an Indian military base in Africa,
15:01
Europe, or Latin America? Never. They don't exist. Technology. India excels at IT services,
15:07
call centers, software development and back office operations. Yes, your computer has supposedly been
15:12
compromised and you need to buy gift cards immediately. But cuttingedge innovation,
15:16
manufacturing dominance, far from it, at least not yet. They still import most military hardware
15:22
being problematically dependent on Russia while also broadly aligned with the West. As for energy,
15:28
it's a similar situation to China. India imports about 85% of its oil, most of that from Russia.
15:34
Like China, they're vulnerable to the same Indian Ocean choke points, block the straight of Hormuz,
15:39
where much of the Middle East's crude has to pass through, and India's economy grinds to a halt.
15:44
It might sound like a billion people should equal automatic power, except population size
15:49
alone hasn't mattered since industrialization made productivity more important than raw numbers. So,
15:55
what's India's verdict? Important regional player, but far too many missing pieces for superpower
16:00
status. Now, let's look at one contender that doesn't fail on money. On paper, the European
16:06
Union or EU looks like an incredible candidate for the next global superpower, assuming you believe a
16:12
block of like-minded states can function like one. It's got a combined GDP of almost 20 trillion,
16:17
rivaling the US. It's got a respectable population of $450 million. It is strong in aerospace,
16:23
automotive, and luxury goods. And the main point is that it's got integrated alliance architecture.
16:29
It is literally a union of states. And here's why the EU looks like a superpower on paper
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but still fails the test in real life. The moment you need them to act like one country,
16:39
they can't. It's the committee problem embodied. Militarily, the EU has no unified command. France
16:46
has nuclear weapons and wants strategic autonomy. Germany spent decades underfunding its military.
16:51
Its defense budget sat around 1 and a half% of GDP until Russia invaded Ukraine and shocked them into
16:56
action. Western European members want trade with Russia. These aren't complimentary positions. The
17:02
EU depends almost entirely on the US for power projection and the nuclear umbrella. When crisis
17:08
emerge, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine, just to name a few, Europe tends to wait for America to lead.
17:14
27 different militaries don't equal one strong one. They equal a committee that can't agree on
17:20
deployment priorities. The Russia Ukraine war also has exposed catastrophic vulnerabilities in energy
17:25
independence. Germany had made itself dependent on Russian gas. Nordstream pipelines pushed roughly
17:31
55% of German gas imports before the war. When the supply was cut off, energy prices spiked
17:37
across Europe, forcing countries into emergency measures. The renewable transition is incomplete
17:43
and uncoordinated across member states. But the fatal flaw is political unity. Hungary blocks
17:49
consensus to maintain ties to Russia. France and Germany disagree on fiscal policy, nuclear power,
17:55
and defense spending. Italy's government changes constantly. You just can't be a superpower if you
18:00
can't agree on foreign policy. And worse still, Brexit proved the whole edifice is reversible.
18:05
If Britain could just leave, the Union isn't permanent. Europe's verdict, economic block
18:10
and regulatory power in spades, but far from a unified superpower. Let's take a second to dismiss
18:16
some other candidates. First, the uh bear in the room. Russia's economy is smaller than Italy's,
18:22
$2.2 trillion in GDP. Its demographics are in a freefall. Its population is declining. Life
18:28
expectancy for men is around 68 years, actually lower than standouts like Syria, Palestine,
18:34
Venezuela, and North Korea. The Ukraine war revealed military weaknesses, rampant corruption,
18:39
poor logistics, and outdated equipment. They are a regional power with nukes. Nothing more,
18:44
nothing less. Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria might be emerging powers,
18:48
but each is missing multiple critical elements. Brazil has resources but lacks infrastructure,
18:54
technology, and military reach. Indonesia has population numbers, but minimal global economic or
19:00
military presence. Nigeria has demographics, but unstable governance and infrastructure deficits.
19:06
Demographics alone don't make you a superpower. If they did, we'd probably be worried about
19:10
Bangladesh taking over the world. Let's look at our scorecard one last time. China fails energy
19:16
independence, strategic geography and alliances. India fails on economic scale, military reach,
19:22
technology, and energy independence. The EU fails on military reach, energy independence, geography,
19:28
and most critically, political unity. Russia isn't even a real consideration. But even if it was,
19:33
it still fails in economy, demographics, and technology. Every single contender fails in
19:38
multiple categories. Notice a pattern. So, what replaces superpowers in the new world order?
19:44
regional powers with China in East Asia, India and South Asia and the US in the Americas. Domain
19:50
specific dominance with the US leading in tech and finance, China in manufacturing in the EU setting
19:55
regulatory standards that everyone follows. In the past, superpowers controlled everything. It
20:00
looks increasingly likely that future powers will merely control something. The world looks like it
20:06
will indeed eventually become multipolar, becoming somewhat more stable through mutual dependence.
20:11
But who organizes collective action during the inevitable crisis? Globalization has made
20:15
us too interconnected for dominance, and you can't control a system you depend on. The 20th
20:21
century created the conditions for superpowers with world wars, technological monopolies,
20:26
and colonial legacies. The 21st century has different rules. Superpowers are really of
20:32
the last century, and ultimately the US might be the last one we ever see. Now go check out
20:37
the end of the United States superpower empire starts here or click on this video instead.
