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Why the World is Running Out of the Fuel Airlines Need Most - Video học tiếng Anh
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Why the World is Running Out of the Fuel Airlines Need Most
Why the World is Running Out of the Fuel Airlines Need Most
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Phụ đề (75)
0:00
The future of flying may depend on used cooking
0:05
oil. There's only one problem. The world can't produce enough of it.
0:10
The airline industry hopes to slash emissions with sustainable aviation
0:15
fuel or SAF. But the secret ingredient powering this fuel isn't rare or high tech.
0:22
It's waste oil - collected from restaurant fryers
0:25
and food factories. And demand for it is rising faster than the world can supply.
0:30
Aviation accounts for around 2% of global CO2 emissions. And unlike cars or power grids,
0:36
there is no battery solution that works for commercial flights at scale, yet.
0:42
Used cooking oil is not derived from traditional fossil fuel and a supply chain is something that
0:48
needs to be deliberately set up. The collections and the aggregations of used cooking oil is being
0:54
done by smaller scale companies and maybe it's not so organized as well and therefore
0:59
the foundation is very different in terms of how is it compared to a fossil fuel.
1:04
Around 80% of all SAF today is made using a technology called HEFA, hydroprocessed
1:11
esters and fatty acids, which uses hydrogen to strip away oxygen and impurities,
1:16
transforming these waste fats into high performance fuel.
1:21
This "fryer-to-flight" technology is no longer just a green experiment. It's now
1:26
a regulatory must. As governments transition from gentle incentives to hard requirements.
1:32
The UK and EU both launched mandates in 2025 that require airport suppliers
1:38
to blend jet fuel with at least 2% SAF, but from there the requirements diverge.
1:45
The UK's mandate jumps to 10% by 2030, nearly double the EU's 6% requirement that year.
1:52
However, the EU SAF mandate accelerates in the following decades,
1:57
hitting 34% by 2040 and a massive 70% by 2050,
2:03
while the UK's rises to 22% in 2040 as part of its broader 'Net Zero' 2050 goal.
2:12
Meanwhile, the US is using tax credits to chase a voluntary 3- billion-gallon
2:17
production target by 2030, roughly equivalent to 10% of projected demand. The country's
2:24
ultimate goal is to produce 35 billion gallons by 2050 to satisfy 100% of domestic demand.
2:32
While SAF generally costs two to four times more than conventional jet fuel,
2:37
high demand in mandated markets has pushed prices
2:40
even higher with some airlines paying up to five times the price of fossil fuel.
2:46
So in the short run definitely there's a limited supply of the SAF stock. So therefore the prices
2:54
will be driven up. The mandate itself will not be sufficient to drive up the supply.
2:59
You need more of the policy support to come into the supply side as well. For example, you
3:05
need to de-risk the project so that will attract more suppliers to come in and join the market.
3:11
So who is picking up the tab for this expensive fuel?
3:15
We all consider three stakeholders, right, and government definitely could come in to bear
3:20
some of the cost through the tax credit as well as the grants. And for airline
3:25
companies usually they are operating in very thin margin and it is very difficult
3:30
for them to bear this kind of cost. So passing through the prices is usually
3:35
expected. I think the passengers will bear most of the cost in the competitive market.
3:39
Governments are tackling the SAF challenge with different strategies.
3:43
The UK has introduced a buyout price of £4.70 per liter, allowing airlines to pay a fee
3:51
if they cannot source enough fuel - effectively turning the green mandate into a fossil-fuel tax.
3:57
Meanwhile, Singapore is testing its own approach. Instead of a traditional mandate,
4:02
it's shifting the cost directly to the traveler.
4:06
Tickets sold from October for flights departing Singapore from 2027 will carry
4:11
a mandatory SAF fee - that can be as low as S$1 Singapore dollar for a short
4:16
hop to Bangkok or around S$10 Singapore dollars for an economy seat to New York.
4:21
The fee can top $40 Singapore dollars for long-haul travelers in premium cabins.
4:27
The levy is designed to meet a 1% SAF blend that scales to 3 to 5% by 2030.
4:34
And to keep costs predictable and avoid the price volatility seen in European markets,
4:40
a government-owned non-profit company will aggregate demand
4:44
and centrally procure SAF using the levy funds.
4:48
When you have the mandate, you are controlling for the volume. But when you have the levy,
4:52
you are basically setting up the cost. So that means when the SAF price fluctuates,
4:58
you may not know the exact quantity of the SAF that you purchase.
5:02
So that is the major difference between the two types of policies. Definitely the price is going
5:07
to be going upwards because there's a limited supply and then you have all this mandate,
5:12
but in the medium and the long term because we want to see that there will be more policy
5:16
support for the suppliers as well. So therefore we wish that the suppliers will also be able to
5:22
come in and to expand the production capacity, so this will relieve the pressure for the prices.
5:29
The bigger bet however is what comes after the cooking oil.
5:33
In the United States, LanzaJet's ethanol-to-jet plant is now fully operating - a world first.
5:40
DG Fuels' planned $4 billion facility is taking a different
5:44
route - converting waste biomass into jet fuel using Fischer-Tropsch
5:49
technology. It has already secured deals with Delta and Air France-KM.
5:54
In Singapore, Aster is pursuing a similar shift.
5:58
We are advancing our SAF via the two projects. The first one is
6:02
with Aether fuels which we are using waste gas to convert into SAF. And in parallel,
6:08
we have another project with Keppel when we are studying the viability of building
6:14
an ethanol-to-jet plant on Jurong Island. So for both of the project we are taking
6:19
a different approach on the feedstock, the other part of the difference is the technology
6:24
pathway. So both project if materialized it will be the first of the kind in Asia.
6:30
The mandates are tightening, the investment is moving,
6:33
and the first plants are running. The only question is whether the
6:37
world can scale sustainable fuels fast enough to make a difference.
