Iran's downing of a US jet will shock Americans in three ways

Topic: World Politics

The downing of a US jet will likely focus Donald Trump's mind on ending this war quickly.

The shooting down of a US fighter jet by Iran is President Donald Trump's quagmire moment.

This is the point when the US either goes deeper into this war or makes a clear decision to end it.

It is almost certain to focus Mr Trump's mind on wanting to end this war as soon as possible.

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Wars are unpredictable. Mr Trump clearly did not anticipate that Iran would fire missiles at its Gulf neighbours, who are US allies.

He also did not anticipate that Iran would be able to close off, and keep closed off, the Strait of Hormuz.

The shooting down of this fighter jet will accelerate already growing concerns in the US about this war.

Until now, for the American public this has been a distant war where the US and Israel have clearly been using their military superiority to pound Iran.

A shock for America

The one strategic victory that Iran has been able to command has been to close the Strait of Hormuz, therefore forcing up petrol prices around the world by cutting key parts of the world's oil supply and indirectly pressuring a president facing some difficult midterm elections this November.

But the shooting down of this jet will shock Americans for several reasons.

Firstly, they have been told repeatedly in recent weeks by Mr Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the US was establishing total control over Iran's skies.

To use the word Mr Trump used this week in his prime-time address to the nation, the US has decimated Iran, including its navy and air force.

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Topic: War

Analysis by Laura Tingle

Topic: World Politics

Secondly, it shows that Iran still has significant capability. F-15E fighter jets are among the fastest and most sophisticated in the world. It is not easy to shoot one down.

Americans have been told more than once by Mr Trump that the US has already won this war.

Thirdly, and perhaps what will resonate most strongly across heartland America, is the human story.

Two Americans, serving their country, shot down and having to go through the brutal physical process of ejecting from a jet fighter in mid-flight.

At the time of writing this, one of the two pilots had reportedly been rescued, while a search-and-rescue mission was being conducted for the other.

The human story of the missing crew member who parachuted into unknown territory in the remote Khuzestan province in south-west Iran, and the question of whether they can survive, is what will be discussed around American dinner tables.

Donald Trump's nightmare scenario

If the pilot is taken hostage, suddenly their fate is out of the control of the US military.

Suddenly, they are at the mercy of whoever came across them.

Iranian state media quickly broadcast messages to tell people that there is a reward for anyone who captures that pilot.

A US pilot taken hostage, with all the propaganda use that Iran would make of that, is the stuff of nightmares for a US president, who would be powerless for some time to do anything about it.

F-15E fighters are among the world's fastest and most sophisticated jets. Shooting them down is not easy.

This is how quagmires begin. If the pilot is taken hostage, the US will use all its electronic and human intelligence to try to locate where they are being kept.

If they do locate them, then they would need to send in a special operations extraction team. And there would need to be a team to support that extraction team.

Bit by bit, week after week, wars can deepen.

We are at that junction now.

More tough choices

Another key decision right now for Mr Trump is whether to send marines onto Kharg Island to try to take control of Iran's major energy hub.

An estimated 90 per cent of Iranian oil is processed on Kharg Island and taking control of it would cut off a major source of revenue for Iran's military machine run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

An additional high-stakes decision is whether to send a special operations team into Iran to try to seize the partially enriched uranium believed to be hidden near Isfahan.

As with Kharg Island, this would be a dangerous mission.

The IRGC will almost certainly fight to defend both Kharg Island and the reported uranium.

They have the advantage of having had time and local knowledge to plant hidden explosive devices or take up defence positions.

Whether it is a rescue of the shot-down pilot, trying to take Kharg Island or a ground operation to seize uranium, all of these options dramatically raise the risk for the US.

In terms of a rescue attempt for the downed pilot, Mr Trump may have no choice. Once his location is known, the American public would expect a rescue attempt.

A strong part of the US military ethos is not to leave any of their forces behind enemy lines.

But all these options deepen this war.

This war is not yet a quagmire. But we are now at the beginning of the point where this could turn into Trump's war in Iran.

For a man who promised not to get America into more forever wars, this is a moment of truth.