ASX 200 lifts after Trump about-face, oil up again, AUD drops below 70 US cents

Topic:Stock Market

Australian shares are higher, with the ASX 200 up sharply at the start of today's session before easing after global stock indices lifted when US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iranian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has dropped under 70 cents to the US dollar, losing around 0.3 per cent.

Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

Key Events

Live updates

By Jason Dasey

ASX 200: +0.8% to 8,436 points

Dow Jones: +1.40% to 46,208 points

S&P 500: +1.2% to 6,581 points

Nasdaq: +1.4% to 21,946 points

Australian dollar: -0.3% to 69.89 US cents

EuroStoxx: +0.6% to 576 points

Spot gold: -1.1% to $US4,354/ounce

Spot silver: -2.4% to $US67.44/ounce

Brent crude: +2.6% to $US102.55/barrel

Iron ore: +0.1% to $US105.14/tonne

Bitcoin: -0.3% to $US70,703

Prices current around 12:25pm AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

By Emilia Terzon

From bricks to concrete, we're now hearing about fuel surcharges on a wide range of items in the building sector.

Anything to do with plumbing is especially under pressure due to petrochemical shortage concerns.

You can watch more in this story from ABC's The Business.

Have you spotted any fuel surcharges that have surprised you on other consumer items? Do you work for a company that is implementing them?

Send our journalist an email on terzon.emilia@abc.net.au

By Jason Dasey

Donald Trump's postponement of his touted strike on Iran's energy infrastructure saw Brent Crude oil fall below $US100 a barrel.

The US president has put that off until Friday as what he describes as "peace talks" continue (although Iran says that is "fake news").

But that drop in the cost of Brent Crude was only temporary.

Over the past couple of hours, it has been pushing back up at a steady rate.

It's currently trading just below $US103 per barrel.

By Jason Dasey

Given the sometimes erratic nature of the current US government -- particularly when it comes to trade -- Australia and the European Union are forging a closer partnership.

Today, they've signed a trade deal that will remove over 99% of tariffs on EU goods exports to Australia, cutting one billion euros ($1.66 billion) a year in duties for companies.

"This is a significant moment for our nation as we secure an agreement with the world's second largest economy. The agreement will lower trade and investment barriers between Australia and the EU," Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

Poignantly, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of how close Europe and Australia had become.

"The EU and Australia may be geographically far apart but we couldn't be closer in terms of how we see the world," she said.

"With these dynamic new partnerships on security and defence, as well as trade, we are moving even closer together."

The deal also reflects the EU's push to reduce dependency on China, particularly in critical minerals where Beijing has imposed export controls on some key resources.

It also signals Europe's growing engagement in the Indo-Pacific, after striking trade accords with Indonesia in September and India in January.

The European Commission, which oversees trade policy for the 27-nation bloc, expects the deal to help increase its total exports to Australia by up to 33% over the next 10 years.

Trade between the two sides is substantial, with EU firms exporting to Australia 37 billion euros ($61 billion) of goods in 2025 and 28 billion euros ($46 billion) of services in 2023.

As a bloc, the EU was Australia's third-largest two-way trading partner in 2024 as well as the sixth-largest export destination, official data showed. The bloc was Australia's second-largest source of foreign investment in 2024.

Read more here:

By Jason Dasey

If you think it's suddenly got very expensive to pump petrol here, cast your eye across the ditch.

Unleaded fuel has hit $NZ4 ($3.34) in some Auckland suburbs due to ongoing Iran war after US and Israel invasion.

But today New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced short-term relief.

The NZ government will provide temporary financial support of NZ$50 ($42) per week from April for low-income families.

The policy is estimated to cost a one-off NZ$373 million ($312 million) if it runs for the full year, Ms Willis told reporters.

By Daniel Ziffer

As if they couldn't get any busier, the ACCC says it is "closely monitoring" Australia’s airline industry in response to the Middle East conflict.

Here's their release:

“The Middle East plays a critical role in global aviation, and we’ve already seen airline operations affected worldwide, with potential for impacts to flow into our domestic market.” ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said.

Not so simple.

Here's what they say:

Whether consumers are entitled to a refund or other remedy for flights disrupted by the Middle East conflict will depend on the individual circumstances of any booking or cancellation.

The consumer guarantees in the Australian Consumer Law are unlikely to apply if the airline delays or cancels a flight due to the actions of a third party, such as a government closing its airspace or implementing flight restrictions.

In these circumstances, whether a consumer is entitled to a refund will depend on the terms and conditions of their booking.

However, airlines may still be required to provide a remedy under the consumer guarantees if the reason for the delay or cancellation is not due to the actions of a third party, such as the failure to meet safety standards or a natural disaster.

“We have been encouraging consumers with an upcoming international flight to contact their airline to understand their options.” Ms Brakey said.

While the immediate impacts have centred on disruptions to international services, airlines and passengers are already feeling the impact of significant increases to global jet fuel prices.

“Major Australian airlines typically hedge a proportion of their fuel needs, which helps to insulate them from short-term fuel price movements,” Ms Brakey said.

By Daniel Ziffer

Refinitiv is reporting Australian tech stocks have risen as much as 2.7% and are on track to log the sector's best session since March 10.

(That's if the trend holds and it is early.)

Shares of tech firms WiseTech Global and NEXTDC are up 0.7% and 1%, respectively

The sub-index has fallen 24.3% this year, including session moves.

By Daniel Ziffer

For those unaware:

The Finance Sector Union (FSU) is calling on banks and financial institutions to immediately suspend mandatory office attendance requirements.

In a release the union says rising fuel costs and global instability place growing pressure on workers. It has written to employers urging them to allow staff to determine their own flexible working arrangements, in response to escalating cost-of-living pressures linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

(The call follows international energy agencies recommending things like WFH to reduce fuel demand.)

The FSU say finance workers had already demonstrated their ability to work effectively from home and had asked employers to respond within one week.

Finance Sector Union national secretary Julia Angrisano said:

“Workers are being hit from every angle, fuel, rent, mortgages and inflation – and employers have a clear opportunity to provide immediate relief.

“Cutting back unnecessary commuting is one of the simplest and most effective ways to reduce costs for workers right now.

“We know flexible work works. The sector delivered through the pandemic and continues to do so.

“This is not a theoretical solution — it’s a practical step employers can take today to ease pressure on their workforce. This is about giving workers some control back at a time when so much feels uncertain.”

By Jason Dasey

ASX 200: +0.9% to 8,441 points

Dow Jones: +1.40% to 46,208 points

S&P 500: +1.2% to 6,581 points

Nasdaq: +1.4% to 21,946 points

Australian dollar: Flat at 70.05 US cents

EuroStoxx: +0.6% to 576 points

Spot gold: +0.7% to $US4,435/ounce

Spot silver: +0.6% to $US69.44/ounce

Brent crude: -10.8% to $US99.94/barrel

Iron ore: +0.1% to $US105.14/tonne

Bitcoin: +0.1% to $US70,957

Prices current around 11:01am AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

By Daniel Ziffer

The 70s are back: and not in a good way.

Reuters is reporting that a key measure of Australian consumer confidence slid to its lowest in more than half a century last week as rising borrowing costs and a spike in petrol prices darkened the economic outlook, a survey reported on Tuesday.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumers showed its main confidence index sank 5.4 points last week to 63.1, the lowest reading since the survey began in 1973.

Weekly expectations for annual inflation rose to 6.9%, the highest on record.

The survey was taken in a week when the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a second month running and petrol prices increased amid talk of possible rationing should the conflict in the Gulf drag on.

By Daniel Ziffer

As expected, the flagship index has rocketed on opening, following the lead of Wall Street and Europe.

It's up +1.5% to 8,490 points.

By Daniel Ziffer

We've already heard calls for people to work from home (WFH) to reduce fuel usage.

Beyond the energy overlords, the calls are coming from unions (link below) and now the Antipoverty Centre.

Here's Antipoverty Centre spokesperson Jay Coon about the impact it's having on poor people:

"Making people in poverty spend even more of the little money they have on fuel or taxis to get to a 5 minute appointment with a welfare compliance officer or do forced unpaid labour at a Work for the Dole site is unacceptable. It is absurd to continue forcing people to drive for such pointless reasons.

"It is even more senseless when the RBA is pushing for more unemployment and AI is leading to job losses – while the public are being told to work from home to help avoid fuel rationing.

"The right thing for Employment Minister Amanda Rishworth to do is to stop all compulsory activities immediately. People in poverty must be free to make decisions on how to allocate their limited fuel money between the things they need and the things they find useful."

By Daniel Ziffer

Tim Piper works for business lobby body the Australian Industry Group as its Victorian boss and the head of its Confectionery Sector.

He's always been a huge advocate for the lolly industry.

Now, he's got a cracking new title: President of the International Confectionery Association (ICA).

Mr Piper said it was an honour:

"This appointment recognises Australia as an integral member of the ICA.

"It will help Australia engage in global discussions, particularly around regulatory issues potentially impacting confectionery around the world.

"It provides Australia with immediate access to key decision-makers and the ability to influence decision-making."

The ICA says its purpose is to "advance innovation and collaboration in the confectionery industry". It's not a huge fan of taxes on commodities used in lollies, or on a "sugar tax" itself.

"We also need to facilitate the supply of sustainable, ethical and affordable ingredients to the industry and help consumers recognise the positive role that confectionery plays as part of a healthy diet," Mr Piper said.

The appointment was made on March 11 at ICA's General Assembly, hosted by the National Confectioners Association (NCA) in Orlando, USA.

The HQ of the ICA is in, obviously, Belgium.

Congratulations Tim!

By Jason Dasey

We're just a few minutes away from today's opening of the ASX 200.

After a miserable Monday that saw the market hit a 10-month low, all signs are that it will be a terrific Tuesday.

The ASX is set to rocket, with the futures index tipping a rise of+1.8% of 151 points to 8,567 points.

By Daniel Ziffer

Let's look back at yesterday's action, when the Australian sharemarket slumped to a 10-month low, weighed down by miners, real estate and industrials.

The sell-off was widespread and even sharper on the other Asian markets, as traders worried about the escalating threats by Washington and Tehran to target energy infrastructure as the war enters its fourth week.

Senior macro strategist with Rabobank, Ben Picton says volatility will likely continue for several days. In the longer term, he says some of the panic buying and supply chain shock is similar to what we experienced during COVID.

The difference is, this time round, we're seeing these disruptions with an economy that already has an inflation problem.

"So we're seeing interest rates going up, whereas during COVID, we were cutting interest rates.

"If the supply side shock turns into a big drop off in demand and we start seriously throwing around the R-word, recession, then maybe the conversation changes and we might be talking about rate cuts at some point in the future."

And in the face of rumoured stoppages to bunker fuel exports from Singapore, he says it's possible Australian supplies could be rationed within weeks.

By Daniel Ziffer

It's happening, after long years of negotiation and against the tide of nationalism and protectionism.

Here's Stephen Dziedzic on the big news:

Australia and the European Union look set to finally sign off on a long-awaited free trade pact after almost a decade of negotiations.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are expected to green-light the deal in Canberra later today and sign a new security partnership that could bolster defence industry cooperation between Europe and Australia.

The final details of the much-anticipated trade deal are not yet public, but one European government source told the ABC that both sides were making compromises to get the agreement over the line amid the Trump administration's assault on global trade rules.

The deal is set to slash tariffs on countless goods, with Albanese declaring during Question Time on Monday that an EU trade deal would "give Australian farmers and growers and exporters better access to a market of 450 million consumers".

It would also allow the government to boast that it had filled the largest remaining gap in Australia's free trade architecture, bolstering the global trading system while it was under enormous international strain.

Read more about the deal at the link below.

By Daniel Ziffer

Yes, there's a war that might send us back to the 70s.

And that's if AI doesn't kill us all.

But please pause now to deal with an important economic issue: Easter eggs getting smaller but costing the same price or more.

A media release from consumer group CHOICE lays it out.

Last year, CHOICE revealed several examples of Easter eggs from global snack giants and supermarket homebrands being hit by shrinkflation.

Despite falling wholesale cocoa prices, manufacturers like Cadbury have doubled down on the practice, continuing to cut the sizes of products already impacted in previous years, while retail prices for these items continue to climb.

Here's CHOICE journalist, Liam Kennedy:

“Easter is the perfect time for indulging in chocolate treats, and a great opportunity to set up Easter egg hunts for the kids. Unfortunately — but not surprisingly — Cadbury has delivered a cut in size, but a rise in price, to some of their Easter chocolates for the second year in a row.

“Last year, we pointed out that Cadbury’s then 22-pack of hollow hunting eggs was coming with two fewer eggs than in 2024, and selling for an extra $2.50. Since then, the company has cut two more eggs from the carton and the product’s price has gone up by another $3.00. All up, the former 24-pack of eggs has shrunk by 68g and increased in price by $5.50 since 2024, meaning consumers are now paying almost 73% more per 100g than they were two years ago."

Hard times indeed. More as developments come to hand.

By Daniel Ziffer

Electric vehicles (EVs) are adding to our fuel security, because as they increase as a proportion of our fleet we are slowly reducing our reliance on petrol — and boosting the number of "days" we have available in supply.

And a great report from climate reporter Jo Lauder, Alex Lim and Fran Rimrod makes another solid point about EVs.

It's not just the oil that's not being burned — their power source is far more removed from supply chain shocks.

A great graphic shows the path from oil field to petrol car, eight steps all vulnerable to disruption.

Check it out.

By Daniel Ziffer

Alarm bells are ringing in Australia's residential building industry, with some describing "considerable" supply chain disruption and price surges on crucial items as being "like COVID" again.

Colleague Emilia Terzon says suppliers are bringing in "emergency fuel levies" for everything from sand to concrete as petrol prices soar due to the war in the Middle East.

The chaos could ripple even further, with the industry warning about rising freight costs on materials that need to be imported.

Major companies that supply pipes for plumbing are even warning of shortages. There are fears the situation will make building a home even more expensive in 2026, further threatening the Australian government's pledge to build 1.2 million homes over five years. (The federal Housing Minister Clare O'Neil described the target as "aspirational". )

Master Builders' Denita Wawn shared similar concerns about the federal government's housing targets, and what the latest supply chain shocks would do to the price of the Australian dream.

Rising building costs will add to inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already been hiking interest rates to tackle resurging inflation in 2026, which will also add to the costs for everyday Australians borrowing to build a home.

By Daniel Ziffer

Iran has reponded to Trump's latest missives.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said it had received messages through "friendly countries" about a request from the United States for talks, but denied any such negotiations had taken place since the start of the war.

"Over the past few days, messages were received through some friendly countries indicating a US request for negotiations aimed at ending the war," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, according to the official IRNA news agency.

But he "denied any negotiations or talks with the United States during the past 24 days of the imposed war".