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Real Reason Why The Economy Has Not COLLAPSED Yet.
Real Reason Why The Economy Has Not COLLAPSED Yet.
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คำบรรยาย (233)
0:00
You’re about to lose everything because of the system’s big lie. While you’re holding your
0:05
breath for another 2008 style financial collapse, it’s already happening. In the dark. Out of sight.
0:11
The government will tell you inflation is “just 3%.” That everything is stable. That the economy
0:16
is holding strong. But if you’re in the bottom half, you already feel the gap between what they
0:21
say and what’s real. Because your reality isn’t 3%. It’s closer to 9%, and it’s getting worse.
0:28
It’s all thanks to a shadow banking system holding $2 trillion hostage with accounting
0:34
techniques that’d have you doing hard time in federal prison. When the crash hits,
0:38
it won’t look like 2008. It’ll be quieter. Faster. And by the time
0:42
you realize what’s happening, it’ll be too late to protect yourself.
0:46
This is the real reason the economy hasn’t collapsed yet.
0:50
Part One - The Great Disconnect
0:52
You and the investment class are living in two different universes. The S&P 500 looks pretty
0:58
healthy right now, reaching record levels. But you? You’ve got as much chance to get
1:03
on the property ladder as you do climbing up a magic beanstalk. According to Fortune,
1:08
US mortgage rates are at around 7% and you need to be earning at least
1:12
6 figures if you want even a median priced home. That price, by the way,
1:17
is around $422,000. Got that lying around in savings? Statistically, you absolutely don’t.
1:24
The Fed says that the average savings for Americans under 35 is around $20,50. But
1:30
because the ultra-rich heavily skew that math, far more than half of young Americans
1:35
actually have even less than that. It feels like a slap in the face when most
1:39
people are carefully budgeting just to stay afloat, trying to balance rent,
1:44
groceries, and fuel that seems to get more expensive every time you fill up.
1:48
America’s median home price-to-income ratio has risen from 3.5 in 1985 to 5.0 in 2025. In 1985,
1:57
your average worker buying a house is kind of like investing in a luxury car. In 2026,
2:02
it’s more like your average worker buying a private jet.
2:06
Inflation is out of control, no matter what the government tells you. The biggest lie of all is
2:11
that it’s a burden that the whole population is shouldering equally. According to Allianz,
2:15
prices have increased by +29% since January 2019, with a persistent +3
2:21
percentage point inflation gap (pps) between low- and high-income households. Even more
2:27
disturbing? One in three low-income households spends about 95% of income on basic needs.
2:34
Given that so much of inflation is based around basic necessities like food and fuel,
2:38
the families spending the most on those are inevitably the ones most
2:42
impacted by price hikes. For people with elite income far higher than the median,
2:47
16% of their spending is on discretionary goods and services. That’s accountant-speak for things
2:53
you don’t absolutely need to buy. Compare that to only 12% of lower-income households. These
3:00
prices are the most stable under inflation, so high income consumers suffer less while
3:05
median and low income families get the full force of every economic disaster.
3:10
To enjoy what used to be “middle class life”, you need an elite salary now. All
3:14
the math points to anyone in the lower middle class and below slowly sinking deeper toward
3:20
insolvency. So why does the government - and the big banks - act like everything is fine?
3:26
Someone is telling a lie… and they’re getting rich off it.
3:30
Part Two - The Nine Percent Secret
3:32
While the government is often a lot more eager to turn your attention to the DOW or the S&P 500,
3:37
the real stat we need to focus on here is the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.
3:43
That’s where the dark secret is hiding.
3:45
In 2023, the reported consumer price index for all urban consumers was 4.1%, but the Ludwig Institute
3:52
for Shared Economic Prosperity noticed an inconsistency that could make all the difference.
3:57
The Ludwig Institute calculates their own metric that cuts through the shadows
4:02
gathered around the government CPI reading. It’s called the TLC,
4:05
or True Living Cost Index. Remember when we told you that higher income households spend
4:10
a lot more on non-essential outcomes? The TLC calculates the brutal stress inflation puts
4:16
on the lower 50% of earners by excluding all the discretionary purchases that bulk out the
4:21
yearly costs of higher income earners. Instead, we have housing, food, transportation, healthcare,
4:27
childcare, technology and miscellaneous items like clothing and personal care.
4:32
When a large share of the 80,000 plus items tracked in the CPI are stripped away in favor
4:38
of the basics, the picture for lower middle and working-class households looks very different.
4:43
Compared to the 4.1% CPI in 2023, the True Living Cost index came in at 9.4%, reflecting the reality
4:51
of essential expenses like housing, food, and transport. This was the highest annual increase
4:57
since 2001, less than a decade before the 2008 crash and right before the onset of the Iraq war.
5:04
Ludwig said, “Middle- and working-class Americans are facing a growing economic crisis,
5:09
struggling to make ends meet despite recent economic growth. The rising
5:12
cost of living… stagnant wages and a shortage of living-wage employment,
5:16
is creating a perfect storm that threatens social and economic stability...”
5:20
But that’s a gamble that the government and the banking industry is more than happy to take.
5:25
It’s your chips on the table, not theirs.
5:27
This means that the middle class is bleeding spending power like it just nicked a major
5:32
artery. As of 2025, people in the middle spending bracket make up only 28% of the
5:38
total US consumer spending market. That same group had 37% in 1992. By contrast,
5:44
the purchasing power of folks in the top 10% of earners, making over $250,000 a year, have filled
5:50
the power vacuum. They were 35% of consumer spending back in 1992, and now they’re at 48%.
5:57
Let that sink in.
5:59
10% of people in the country are in control of nearly half of all consumer spending in the US.
6:05
That’s more than just an advantage, it’s complete domination. And the working class
6:10
are getting it even worse than the dwindling lower middle class. They
6:14
make up only 9% of consumer spending power, less than a tenth of the total.
6:19
According to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, lower income households
6:23
have seen “...their share of the economic pie decline…” and that’s going to continue.
6:28
The system is picking your pocket right now, trading on your future.
6:32
But maybe they’ve already sown the seeds of their own demise. Surely,
6:35
if purchasing power outside the top 10% collapses, the housing market follows?
6:40
Historically, that’s one of the first cracks that drags the whole economy down.
6:45
But it hasn’t. And that reveals another trick the
6:48
system is using to make things look stable when they aren’t.
6:51
Part Three - The Golden Handcuff Effect
6:54
One of the biggest lies you’ve probably been told about the housing market is high interest
6:59
rates will crash home prices. Interest rates go up during periods of inflation.
7:04
High interest rates have been known to reduce house buying prices in the long run.
7:08
Confused?
7:09
Good. The financial industry wants you to be.
7:11
Higher interest rates lead to houses being more expensive, which reduces demand. Reduced
7:17
demand leads, theoretically, to surplus supply, which in turn brings prices down.
7:22
It’s sound economics, unless… the supply is tied up.
7:26
The mortgage rate is one of the most powerful economic drivers in the US.
7:29
A difference of even 1 or 2 percentage points meaning thousands in extra monthly costs for
7:35
homeowners. The pandemic saw historically low mortgage rates that allowed a lot of
7:39
people to enter the housing market, and, in the process, dig in their heels for
7:43
the next rate hike. 52.5% had an interest rate below 4% as of the second quarter of
7:49
2025. New loans leapt up past 6% back in 2022, and have remained relatively firm ever since.
7:57
But for those with low interest rates, there’s an incentive not to sell,
8:01
given they’re in such a cushy position. This is known as “Golden Handcuffs”, a positive
8:06
situation - for the individual homeowners, at least - that destroys any incentive to sell. The
8:11
people outside the property market are denied a way in. The Federal Housing Finance Agency
8:16
estimated that the "lock-in effect" has prevented 1.72 million home sales between 2022 and 2024.
8:24
This is a nightmare that we don’t seem to be waking up from anytime soon.
8:29
So despite the lower demand, the price is kept artificially high because the
8:34
supply of houses is now historically low, at least 14% below pre-pandemic levels. And as
8:40
a result of these price hikes, we’re even seeing listed houses staying on
8:44
the market for longer. 62 days in late 2025, a week more than 2024.
8:50
Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp says, “The lack of supply often creates a tight market,
8:56
increasing the ratio of buyers to sellers. Markets with the largest
8:59
scarcity of homes for sale continue to see the strongest price growth despite
9:03
affordability challenges. For first-time buyers or those who must move… [it] creates
9:08
a severe affordability challenge, locking them out of homeownership.”
9:12
Whether they’re locked in or locked out of the housing market,
9:15
there’s no denying that the general public is, by and large,
9:19
locked. But that’s just one piece of the puzzle in a larger and way more terrifying picture.
9:24
The risk of economic collapse didn’t just disappear after the 2008 crisis,
9:29
it mutated into something even worse.
9:32
Part Four - The Shadow Bank Time Bomb
9:35
The past, present, and future of the economic nightmare rolling towards us is deeply tied
9:39
up in the so-called Shadow Banking sector. The kind of volatility that triggered the
9:44
Global Financial Crisis used to play out in the open before the Dodd–Frank Wall Street
9:48
Reform and Consumer Protection Act. It was meant to curb “too big to fail,”
9:54
end taxpayer-funded bailouts, and protect consumers from abusive financial practices.
9:59
Of course, it didn’t end any of those things.
10:02
It just moved them into the dark.
10:04
Shadow banking prefers to call itself “non‑bank financial intermediation”.
10:08
The Financial Stability Board broadly describes it as, quote, “credit intermediation involving
10:14
entities and activities outside the regular banking system.” And in those dark spaces
10:19
outside of traditional banking, you’d be amazed at the regulatory loopholes you can
10:24
take advantage of. This is deeply tied to the rise of private credit. Where companies once went to
10:30
banks for loans under strict rules and oversight, private credit shifts that lending into private,
10:35
off balance sheet style arrangements between non-bank entities, largely out of public view.
10:41
But here’s the crazy part: The banks are still involved, they’re just not directly giving the
10:47
private loans. Instead, they provide financial backing to the private lenders. It made sense,
10:52
pragmatically. The Dodd-Frank regulations forced traditional banks to hold more capital to reduce
10:58
loan risk, and do more extensive checks on borrowers. It slowed the whole process down
11:04
and created additional costs to lending. These aren’t problems for private credit,
11:08
and it shows. The industry has now risen to heights of $2.1 trillion,
11:13
and is forecast by BlackRock to hit $4.5 trillion by 2030.
11:18
The major risk here is that, without regulation and transparency, this whole
11:22
market will rot from the inside out. The rest of us will be dragged down with it as it goes.
11:28
Raghavendra Rau, a professor of finance at the University of Cambridge, has said,
11:32
“Nobody knows what the true value of assets these guys are holding. They’re
11:36
opaque… we have no idea what’s going on in there...hopefully there are no bad loans.”
11:42
But what if there are?
11:43
The root of the bad loans causing the rot inside the booming private credit industry
11:48
is the method they use to value their loans: Mark to model. This method uses
11:53
financial models to value investments rather than actual current market prices. That means
11:59
rather than being an exact science, there’s often a terrifying amount of guesswork… in
12:03
an industry that is deeply tied into the overall economy. It seems almost
12:08
like they have no idea if the entities they’re lending to will default on their loans or not.
12:13
And there are still layers of this we haven’t yet peeled, ones somehow even worse than what
12:18
we’ve seen before. These shadow banks are making dead companies seem alive on paper,
12:23
by inventing and capitalizing on a new form of insidious debt.
12:27
Part Five - The Zombie Economy
12:29
Beyond Meat, Inc. AMC Entertainment. Sunrun. Five9 Inc. What do these businesses have in
12:36
common? They’re all Zombies. When you look at the facts and stats,
12:40
you start to realize that we might be facing an entire zombie apocalypse and not even know it.
12:45
A Zombie Company is a business that barely makes enough to pay interest on debt. To stay afloat,
12:51
it has to take on new borrowing just to service old payments. Their borrowing
12:55
costs are insane and every day they creep just a little closer to insolvency. Seems
13:00
like a pretty terrible condition for a company to be in. According to Deutsche Bank estimates,
13:05
as of 2020, as much as 18% of publicly traded US companies are zombie companies.
13:11
It’d be tempting to say, “Just shoot the zombie in the head and get over it”,
13:15
but these zombie companies accounted for 2.2 million
13:18
jobs back in 2020. As time goes on and the number increases as a result of inflation,
13:23
the result will be even more jobs tied into these untenable, undead businesses.
13:28
Most of these companies need to resort to PIK, or Payment in Kind,
13:32
repayment plans to try in vain to keep up with their mounting debts. Essentially,
13:37
instead of paying interest in cash, those payments are rolled into the outstanding debt balance
13:42
owed to creditors. This increases the size of the debt mountain they’re under and often
13:47
guarantees a slow but sure demise. With so much of the economy in this position, it feels like
13:53
we’re witnessing a “controlled demolition”. A major pillar of the economy is slowly crumbling
13:58
but the private credit industry is trying to keep the disaster behind a curtain of silence.
14:03
But don’t fall for the shell game here. It’s meant to pull the wool over your
14:07
eyes and make you forget the danger that’s creeping up behind you. While
14:10
the corporations are playing “pretend and extend”, an entire generation is
14:15
defaulting in silence, loading up the gunpowder for an economic explosion.
14:19
Part Six - The Invisible Default
14:22
Is it a bug? Is it a feature? Whether it was planned or not, the system only has one
14:27
inevitable ending: Creating a K-shaped economy that plunges us deeper into the world of the
14:32
haves and have-nots than ever before. Once the collapse is complete and the lines are drawn,
14:38
all that’ll be left are the Asset Owners and the Service Workers.
14:42
But what does any of that actually mean?
14:44
The K-shaped economy is a concept for a society that’s so lopsided,
14:48
that the richest Americans are responsible for half the economy. On one side, the stock
14:52
market is booming and discretionary goods are selling like never before. On the other side,
14:57
people are choosing between filling their gas tanks or their stomachs on
15:01
a day to day basis. One slope going up, the other going down, like the structure of the
15:07
letter K. And in our case, this divide is absolutely split along generational lines.
15:12
Baby Boomers hold $83.3 trillion in assets, over half of the total US household wealth. They’re
15:19
the richest generation in history, averaging $1 million per person. Then there’s Millennials
15:24
and Gen Z together, the biggest population block there is when combined. But between them, they’ve
15:30
got $17.1 trillion, only 10.5% of the total US wealth. And these generations also deal with
15:37
more hidden debt traps than any of the previous ones, like the increasing popularity of “Buy Now,
15:43
Pay Later” schemes. It’s a whole new stream of debt that federal data won’t even show.
15:48
The system is brutal.
15:50
It’s unfair.
15:51
It’s designed to hollow out the middle and leave hard-working people penniless.
15:56
Short of upending the entire thing and starting from a blank slate,
15:59
your best chance of surviving the rising tide of financial horror
16:02
is to move your money to the only places that the tide can’t reach.
16:06
So what are they?
16:08
Part Seven - The Survival Playbook
16:10
In the short term, if you want to get ahead of the collapse,
16:12
you need to shift your portfolio to strong, inflation-proof assets that are out of the hands
16:18
of government tampering. One classic investment for hedging inflation is gold. Problem is,
16:23
gold isn’t completely inflation-proof. When banks increase rates due to inflation,
16:27
gold won’t pay a yield on that interest. So, it isn’t the absolute most profitable asset to hold.
16:33
You could also broadly invest in commodities like grain, precious metals, electricity, oil, beef,
16:38
orange juice, and natural gas exchange-traded funds. But this isn’t without risk, either,
16:43
given that commodities can be an insanely volatile market even outside the context
16:48
of inflation. Demand and supply factors, which dictate the value of commodities, are extremely
16:53
sensitive to worldwide geopolitical events. And we seem to be having a lot more wars these days.
16:59
If you want to play your investment strategy extra safe, there’s always
17:02
the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. However, these can underperform
17:06
drastically over the long term compared to all-equity portfolios. If, by contrast,
17:10
you want to buy into the awful real estate market, you could invest in REITs:
17:15
Real Estate Investment Trusts. This is a real estate pool that pays out dividends, but it
17:21
can still leave you exposed to property taxes and to shifts in demand for other high-yield assets.
17:26
As with anything in the investment game,
17:28
there’s never such a thing as “No risk”. Just “less risk than the alternative.”
17:33
In the dog eat dog world of the hollowed-out economy,
17:36
growth is no longer the priority. It’s all about resilience. Riding and surviving the
17:40
wave while keeping your assets out of the hands of governments and shadow
17:44
banking institutions. If you’re lucky, you can get yourself and your finances
17:48
out of the service world and into the world of asset ownership before the shockwave hits.
17:53
But that window is closing fast.
17:55
For all you know, the wave might have already hit you,
17:57
and you don’t even know you’re bleeding until you’ve got no more blood left.
18:02
Want to know more info that you’ll need to survive our current economic reality? Then
18:06
you can’t afford to miss “$200 Oil. The World Economy is OBLITERATED”, or watch this instead!
Real Reason Why The Economy Has Not COLLAPSED Yet. - Video học tiếng Anh
