คำบรรยาย (211)
0:00- We all know that digital computers
0:02have changed the entire landscape.
0:05Nations which can use
digital computers are rich,
0:08they're powerful, they can communicate,
0:12they can revamp the economy.
0:14However, we're now in the initial stages
0:17of the next revolution.
0:21- [Interviewer] How quantum computers
0:23will change everything.
0:26- The next revolution
will be quantum computers
0:29that will make the digital
computer look like an abacus.
0:33In other words, the future
of digital computers
0:36is to wind up in the garbage can.
0:39We're talking about a new
generation of computers,
0:42the ultimate computer, a
computer that computes on atoms,
0:47the ultimate constituents
of matter itself.
0:50Quantum computers have the capability
0:53of changing every aspect of our life.
0:56The economy, health, transportation,
1:00everything could be changed
by quantum computers.
1:04Take a look, for example, of food supply.
1:07We rely upon fertilizers.
1:10There was a green
revolution that took place
1:12that allows us to feed the
population of the world.
1:16But that green revolution
is slowly coming to an end.
1:19We need a second green revolution,
1:22being able to take nitrogen from the air
1:25and combine it to make
ammonia and fertilizer.
1:28And already we're trying
to use quantum computers
1:31to unlock the secret of
how to make fertilizer
1:36Also, take a look at energy.
1:39Fusion power could one day give us
1:41unlimited energy almost for free.
1:45We're talking about an energy source
1:47where the basic fuel is sea water,
1:51fusion plants burn sea water,
the hydrogen of sea water,
1:55to create fabulous amounts of
energy without nuclear waste,
1:59without the threat of a meltdown.
2:02And quantum computers may
be essential to stabilize
2:06the vacuum and hydrogen so that
they don't cause an accident
2:12or they don't fall apart.
2:14So in other words, quantum
computers can affect
2:16the economy in basic ways.
2:18Not to mention medicine.
2:21We create medicines by trial and error.
2:25We create hundreds of chemicals
2:27and test them one by one in a Petri dish.
2:31This is old fashioned slow,
but that's all there is.
2:36That's all we can do.
2:37In the future, we'll be
able to model diseases
2:41at the molecular level.
2:43We'll be able to do molecular experiments
2:46in the memory of a computer
rather than in a Petri dish,
2:51trying to look at hundreds of chemicals
2:54to find out which one
is medically relevant.
2:58we're talking about turning
medicine upside down.
3:03The question is, who's
involved in this race
3:06to perfect quantum computers?
3:08And the answer is everyone.
3:11If you're not part of the race,
3:13you could be irrelevant in the future.
3:16All the big names of the
computer industry, Google, IBM,
3:21Honeywell, they're all in the game
3:24because they realize that
you could become irrelevant.
3:27Wall Street is always looking
for the next big investment,
3:31and this could be it.
3:33All of a sudden, we have
companies that just started
3:36a few years ago becoming
multi-billion dollar companies
3:40as they try to put their flag
3:43on the mountain of quantum computers.
3:45This is now big business.
3:48This is one of the hottest stocks
3:49that are available on
the stock market now.
3:52In other words, it's a race.
3:55All the big players in Silicon
Valley are part of this race
3:59because if they're not Silicon Valley
4:02could become the next rust belt.
4:05We have something called Moore's Law,
4:08which says that computer
power doubles every 18 months.
4:12We take it for granted.
4:14Every Christmas, your
computers are twice as powerful
4:18as the previous Christmas.
4:19The economy is based on that.
4:22But Moore's law is falling apart.
4:25Moore's law is getting slower and slower.
4:28Finally, it'll flatten out.
And let me ask you a question.
4:32Would you upgrade your computer
4:34knowing that it's just as powerful
4:37as the last few generations of computers?
4:40No, this could cause a depression
in the computer industry.
4:45We physicists called
attention to this decades ago,
4:49but we said that, well, we
still have a few more decades
4:51left, but it's coming.
4:54It's coming because transistors
4:55are getting smaller and smaller.
4:58A transistor today could be,
let's say 20 atoms across.
5:02When you start to hit five atoms across,
5:05then electrons can then hop across
5:08and create short circuits.
5:10And Moore's law comes to an end.
5:14We're now gradually
approaching that limit.
5:17When you look at the curve
of the exponential growth
5:21of computer power, it's quite remarkable.
5:24This is where modern
technology has taken a leap,
5:27but now we're beginning to level
off just like we predicted,
5:32because of the quantum theory.
5:35Electrons are not dots.
5:39Waves are probability,
5:41and they're unstable if
you start to get electrons
5:45and they analyze them
at the level of an atom.
5:48So in other words, Silicon
Valley has to confront the fact
5:53that Moore's law will eventually collapse.
5:55So for all these reasons, we have to go
5:57beyond digital computers
to atomic computers.
6:02Computers that compute on atoms
rather than on transistors.
6:07Right now, anyone who's interested
in security is interested
6:13in the quantum computers is
quantum computers in principle,
6:17have the power to crack any digital code.
6:21Think about that for a moment.
6:23All the data that is sent
on the internet is coded.
6:27National Secrets of Nations
are encoded in these codes,
6:32which often require you to
factorized very large numbers,
6:36but that's what quantum computers can do.
6:39They can factorized very large numbers
6:41and thereby crack almost any code
6:45that is based on digital technology.
6:48That's why the FBI, the CIA,
and all national governments
6:54interested in computer security
6:56are following this very closely.
6:59So for example, let's say you want
7:01to have a secret that's encoded.
7:04You put a code on it, and the code says,
7:07you have to factorized a digit that is,
7:10let's say 50 digits long.
7:13It would take perhaps a few hundred years
7:15for a digital computer to factorized
7:17a number that is 50 digits long.
7:20A quantum computer may be able
to do that almost instantly.
7:25And so you see the anxiety
that this is being created
7:30for people involved
with computer security.
7:34You're not talking about
being able to break
7:36into any other computer on the earth
7:40that is based on digital technology.
7:44Now, we're not there yet.
7:45So you don't have to worry
that someone's gonna steal
7:48all your secrets tomorrow,
but it will come.
7:52And when it comes, we're gonna
have to have a major revision
7:55of how we code our most
treasured national secrets.
8:00Ordinary digital computers
compute on zeros and ones,
8:08But if you take a look at medicine,
8:09you take a look at energy,
you take a look at molecules,
8:13they're not based on zeros
and ones, zeros and ones.
8:18They're based on electrons.
8:20And electrons can be smooth,
8:21not zeros and ones, zeros and ones.
8:27how come they have so
much computational power?
8:29Because they could be in
two places at the same time.
8:33Now, at this point, you
may say to yourself,
8:36that's ridiculous, that's stupid.
8:39How can you be two
places at the same time?
8:42But that's exactly what electrons do.
8:45Electrons can be multiple places
8:47simultaneously at the same time.
8:50That's what gives quantum
computers their power.
8:54They compute on parallel
universes, not just one universe,
9:01the universe that we're accustomed to,
9:03but an infinite number
of parallel universes.
9:07Now this sounds like
something from Marvel Comics,
9:10but then the question is,
9:11where did Marvel comics get this idea?
9:14Marvel comics got this
idea from quantum physics
9:17because the fundamental
basis of quantum physics
9:21relies upon the fact that the electron
9:23can be in multiple places
simultaneously at the same time.
9:29One of the big goals of quantum computers,
9:32not just creating new forms of energy,
9:34new products, new forms of transportation,
9:37but perhaps unlocking the
secret of life itself.
9:42You realize that life
is based on molecules,
9:45not zeros and ones, zeros and ones.
9:48Molecules that in turn can
create Alzheimer's disease,
9:51Parkinson's disease, cancer.
9:54These diseases are beyond the
reach of digital computers.
9:59But hey, this is what
quantum computers do.
10:02They work with molecules,
they work with atoms,
10:05they work with electrons.
10:07And that's why we hope that one day
10:09we'll be able to cure the
incurable using quantum computers.
10:15Now, some people say,
won't that put doctors,
10:18chemists and biologists out of a job?
10:21Won't they be on the unemployment line
10:22'cause we don't need them anymore?
10:24No, in the future, the people
on the unemployment line
10:28will be chemists and biologists
10:31who do not use quantum computers.
10:34The winners of this game
will be biologists, chemists,
10:38mathematicians who use quantum computers
10:42in the same way that a
carpenter uses a hammer.
10:45A hammer does not replace the carpenter.
10:49The hammer simply increases
the power of the carpenter.
10:54And that's what quantum
computers will do for medicine,
10:57transportation, energy, you name it,
11:00quantum computers will be there.
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