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A Plan to Stop AI from Automating Our Decline | Gina Raimondo | TED - Video học tiếng Anh
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A Plan to Stop AI from Automating Our Decline | Gina Raimondo | TED
A Plan to Stop AI from Automating Our Decline | Gina Raimondo | TED
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0:04
What will it take for America to lead the global AI competition?
0:11
Now we all know we’ll need plentiful energy, the best chips,
0:14
the most innovative AI companies, the best models.
0:18
But I argue that's not nearly enough.
0:22
Because if we're the best in the world at those things,
0:25
but we've displaced millions of American workers,
0:28
then we're going to lose the global AI race.
0:32
In fact,
0:34
we will have automated our decline.
0:37
Because recessions, social unrest, political upheaval,
0:41
those will weaken our country,
0:43
our politics and our economy.
0:46
And ultimately, I believe, I know,
0:48
they will lead to excessive, burdensome regulation of AI
0:54
that will slow and stop and hinder AI innovation.
1:00
The reality is the United States can't lead the world
1:05
in technological innovation
1:08
if it's failing its people at home.
1:10
We need a technology strategy and a human capital strategy,
1:16
because the only way to truly win the long-term AI race
1:21
is to lead in the technology
1:23
and to have a plan that brings everybody along to an AI economy.
1:29
Now I think it’s incredibly exciting
1:32
to think about what a well-trained individual can do with AI.
1:37
Think about how much more productive and creative we'll all be
1:42
and how many new businesses will be created.
1:45
And I'm optimistic because history shows
1:48
every time we create a new technology,
1:52
it does create new jobs, new industries, new products, new services.
1:58
Over time, with some time.
2:01
And I'm confident that that will happen again,
2:03
this time with AI.
2:06
With time.
2:08
So what I'm worried about is the near-term disruption to workers
2:14
as we transition from here to an AI economy.
2:20
Because, I know this as a former governor and secretary of commerce,
2:25
America's workforce and career transition systems
2:29
weren't built for this moment.
2:32
Some people estimate tens of millions of American workers
2:35
are in AI-vulnerable jobs.
2:37
All kinds of jobs,
2:39
people of every age, geography, income, level of education.
2:43
We are not prepared for this transition.
2:47
And Americans know it.
2:50
I was at a bar the other night watching NCAA basketball.
2:54
Huge University of Michigan fan.
2:57
And it's all --
2:59
Go Blue!
3:00
It's all everybody was talking about.
3:02
It's all the chatter.
3:03
"What are you going to do when you lose your job to AI?"
3:06
"I'm so bummed, I'm paying all this money for tuition for my kids in college.
3:09
Are they going to have a job when they're done?"
3:12
Americans are anxious for a reason, and we owe them more than empathy.
3:17
We owe them a plan, we owe them action.
3:20
And so far, I'm not hearing a lot of good solutions.
3:24
There’s the slow AI, stop AI, overregulate AI crowd.
3:29
It's a bad idea.
3:30
It denies Americans the promise of AI, and China will pull ahead.
3:35
And then there's the universal basic income crowd.
3:38
That's also a bad idea.
3:40
Every one of you know, a job is more than a paycheck.
3:45
It's dignity, it's purpose, it's pride.
3:47
Without purposeful work, a society unravels.
3:51
So what are the elements of an effective transition plan?
3:57
Unfortunately, as I stand here today, I don't know the exact details,
4:01
But here's what I do know.
4:03
I know it's rooted in a new grand bargain between government and business.
4:09
I know it means tearing down the wall we've had for so long
4:13
between school and jobs,
4:16
and I know industry,
4:18
every company needs to help lead the transition.
4:22
And here is what I know more than anything else.
4:26
I know if we are determined, we can make it happen.
4:32
At a minimum, we need massive changes in both our workforce training system
4:37
and our career transition support system.
4:41
In an effective workforce training system,
4:44
employers define where work is today,
4:47
what skills are needed, where it’s going.
4:50
And then schools and government training programs prepare people to get there.
4:54
That is not what we have today.
4:57
Today, in our country,
4:58
we spend hundreds of billions of dollars to incentivize enrollment in college --
5:05
without regard to whether people get a degree,
5:07
the skills they need for a job or a job.
5:11
The truth is, and you all know this,
5:13
government and schools don't know the skills employers need today
5:18
or will need tomorrow.
5:19
Industry has the most accurate and dynamic view.
5:24
By the way, I’ve seen this be successful as governor and secretary of commerce.
5:30
When TSMC decided
5:33
to expand manufacturing of chips in America,
5:38
they told us what they needed.
5:40
They needed skilled electrical engineers and equipment operators.
5:45
So we got to work.
5:46
We designed with them, with community college,
5:49
with certificate initiatives,
5:52
accelerated certificate programs and apprenticeships
5:56
tailored to the company's needs.
5:59
Today, TSMC is thriving in Arizona,
6:02
making leading-edge AI chips at scale for the first time in America's history.
6:09
(Applause)
6:14
Another problem with our current system is it's a one-and-done system.
6:19
You graduate high school, you go to college,
6:21
you're done with your education.
6:23
That isn't going to work in an AI economy.
6:25
All of us, all of us,
6:27
will have to learn new skills
6:29
because our jobs will be constantly changing over the course of a career.
6:33
Let's be honest, most people learn
6:39
most of the skills that they use in their job every day
6:43
on the job.
6:45
Yeah?
6:47
So why don't we have more effective, affordable,
6:49
flexible options at scale
6:51
so people can earn while they learn continuously over the course of a career?
6:57
A good friend of mine's husband recently lost his job in IT.
7:04
Super smart guy in his late 30s.
7:06
So he spent a long time trying to figure out a job that excited him,
7:10
that he thought was an AI-resilient career path.
7:13
He finally found a job in the HVAC industry.
7:17
He was psyched for it.
7:19
He spent a lot of time looking for a training program in his area.
7:22
He found one that he could get into.
7:24
It took a year, over a year actually,
7:27
cost money,
7:29
and he wouldn't be paid for a year.
7:32
Who can go a year without a salary?
7:35
Now look, I know, I’ve seen it,
7:38
there is a lot of really excellent innovation out there
7:43
around employer-led worker training,
7:46
apprenticeships, co-ops and college.
7:49
But here's the reality.
7:51
All of those efforts are a tiny portion
7:55
of America's post-high school system.
7:59
They ought to be the system.
8:02
They ought to be the norm and not the exception.
8:04
And there should be no stigma for going that path.
8:09
OK, now, the reality is it's going to take
8:12
more than just new workforce training system
8:15
if we're going to get through this economic transition,
8:17
because we also have to provide support for people as AI changes their jobs.
8:23
And unfortunately, today in the US,
8:26
our primary career transition support system is unemployment insurance.
8:31
It was created 100 years ago in a different time
8:34
where people had a single job in a single industry for decades.
8:38
It does nothing to support people getting new training,
8:41
starting a new business, entering a new field.
8:44
And actually, I know this from being governor,
8:47
it doesn't provide nearly enough income support for middle-class wage earners,
8:51
let alone high-income earners.
8:54
So in addition to unemployment benefits,
8:58
why don't we offer temporary wage support
9:01
to get workers back into the workforce quickly by topping up their salary,
9:05
if they take a pay cut to enter a new field?
9:10
By the way, one of the reasons I'm excited about AI
9:12
is I think it'll make starting a business easier than ever.
9:15
So why don't we look at a program of self-employment assistance
9:21
to support workers while they start a new business?
9:25
So let's say we do all this.
9:27
Let's say we are determined, creative, and we do all this.
9:29
What might it look like?
9:32
Imagine a 45-year-old woman.
9:34
She's been an accountant for 15 years, closing the books.
9:38
She's got two kids, a pile of bills and a mortgage.
9:41
Pretty typical.
9:43
Last week she was told she's losing her job
9:45
because it's being automated.
9:47
Today, in our system,
9:50
if she's lucky,
9:51
she'd get a retraining brochure and two weeks' severance.
9:55
There's over a million accountants in America.
9:58
In a better system,
10:01
her company would be incentivized to allow her to start retraining
10:06
months before she's laid off.
10:09
Maybe she gets a short-term credential to learn a higher-value skill.
10:14
It puts her in a position to get redeployed at that company
10:18
if the company is committed to redeployment.
10:20
And if she needs it,
10:22
maybe she could collect temporary wage insurance
10:25
to top up her income
10:27
to make up the difference between her old job
10:29
and her new job salary.
10:32
So how are we going to do this?
10:34
How do we get there?
10:35
Incentives, innovation and urgency.
10:38
First, the government needs to fund schools
10:42
and training programs on their outcomes.
10:49
(Laughter)
10:50
How about that?
10:51
(Applause)
10:52
They shouldn't just get the money because people show up and enroll.
10:56
They need to be funded based upon whether people get good skills
11:00
and actually get a job.
11:03
Incentives need to change for businesses as well.
11:06
Right now, the incentives are such
11:10
that a company lays a lot of people off today,
11:13
and their stock price surges tomorrow.
11:16
It is too easy to hit the “easy button” of layoffs.
11:21
Companies need different incentives.
11:25
Quite frankly, we need a new system
11:27
where it's more expensive to abandon workers
11:31
than to retrain them.
11:34
(Applause)
11:37
We all respond to incentives.
11:40
How about we pilot tax credits or other economic incentives
11:44
that reward companies for worker redeployment,
11:48
for entry-level hiring,
11:50
for reinvesting AI productivity gains into new jobs?
11:56
We have spent decades, if not longer,
11:58
perfecting the incentives for investing in machines.
12:02
We need to do the same so companies invest in people.
12:06
And here's the reality.
12:09
It's in all of our interests
12:10
to have a smooth transition to an AI economy.
12:14
It isn't business versus workers.
12:17
Nobody benefits with the recession, excessive AI regulations,
12:20
social unrest and political violence and divisiveness.
12:26
By the way, it's in everyone's benefit to reach this exciting potential
12:29
of AI innovation.
12:33
It’s not corporate charity to do this.
12:35
Last time I checked, agents didn't walk into the store and buy things.
12:39
Humans do that.
12:41
And they need money in their pocket to do it.
12:44
So it turns out America has seen a similar movie to this before,
12:49
when we didn't plan for an economic transition,
12:51
and by the way, it didn't end well.
12:53
It happened when American companies moved their manufacturing overseas,
12:58
mostly to Asia, chasing cheaper labor,
13:01
and millions of Americans lost their jobs.
13:04
And a lot of communities were crushed.
13:07
How do I know this?
13:08
Because I lived through it.
13:10
In the early '80s,
13:11
when the Bulova watch factory closed,
13:14
my dad lost the only career he’d ever known
13:18
after devoting almost 30 years of his life to the job.
13:21
One job, one company, one identity.
13:25
Gone.
13:26
Here's the thing, he was 56.
13:28
He still needed a job.
13:30
He still needed to work.
13:31
My dad was a smart guy.
13:33
He understood the economics of outsourcing to China,
13:39
and he knew it would help some American businesses
13:43
grow faster and add new jobs.
13:46
But he and all of his buddies still needed a bridge
13:50
to another chapter of work.
13:52
And there wasn't one.
13:54
I mean, after a lot of pain and bitterness on his part,
13:57
my family got through it.
13:59
But the truth of it is,
14:00
my country paid a huge price for that poorly planned transition.
14:05
In fact, I argue, 30 years later,
14:07
we're still paying a price for that poorly planned transition
14:11
in the form of increasingly divisive, dysfunctional, violent politics.
14:17
Now --
14:18
(Applause)
14:22
Think about this.
14:25
At that time,
14:27
it was a few million Americans who lost their jobs.
14:34
Some say two million, some say three million.
14:37
Let's resolve right here, right now to do it differently this time.
14:42
Here's good news.
14:45
History also shows
14:48
that when the stakes are high enough,
14:50
America reinvents.
14:52
After World War II,
14:54
record public investment and research
14:56
seeded new industries.
14:58
COVID accelerated growth in clean energy,
15:01
in health care.
15:04
AI is a 100-year technology and needs a 100-year response
15:08
so that all Americans can reap the benefits of an AI economy.
15:14
Why am I optimistic?
15:16
Because if we're a country
15:18
that can design the best chips in the world,
15:22
create the best models in the world
15:24
and spend trillions of dollars to build out our AI infrastructure,
15:30
then we're up to this challenge.
15:32
Because here's the reality.
15:34
And you know this.
15:36
Our future isn't predetermined.
15:40
It's ours to create.
15:42
It's why you're all here.
15:43
So let's get to work.
15:45
Thank you.
15:46
(Applause)
