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Lunar Colonization Is DEAD. The 1,000mSv Threat is FATAL - Video học tiếng Anh
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Lunar Colonization Is DEAD. The 1,000mSv Threat is FATAL
Lunar Colonization Is DEAD. The 1,000mSv Threat is FATAL
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Phụ đề (283)
0:00
We were told Artemis I was a simple test flight to the Moon.
0:03
But the actual data returned by the Orion capsule tells a terrifying story.
0:08
It didn't just find craters. The first mission recorded
0:11
radiation levels that didn’t just match the Apollo era, they were almost 5 times higher.
0:17
It discovered a failing heat shield while NASA's orbiters mapped a South Pole landing
0:22
zone that's already being targeted by China. The Moon isn't an empty frontier anymore.
0:28
It’s a geopolitical powder keg… and even NASA’s own reports
0:32
suggest we might not survive the landing. NASA was broadcasting lunar video back to
0:38
Earth using its standard deep-space network. But inside Orion, an entirely different story
0:43
was unfolding…one the stream didn’t show. To the modern eye, these images proved that
0:48
the next era of spaceflight could be faster, clearer, and seemingly safer than the missions
0:53
of the 1960s and 70s. But behind all the spectacle, Orion’s onboard sensors were
0:58
tracking something far more ancient, far more dangerous than any technical failure…
1:03
Radiation. Outside Earth’s
1:05
magnetic shield, there’s no room for mistakes. Space agencies and their scientists know that
1:10
getting radiation wrong can be catastrophic. Every burst from the Sun, every cosmic ray
1:16
from deep space, passes through flesh and human bones. Even if the astronauts
1:20
make it through the blasts, the machines keeping them alive could start to fail.
1:25
Especially when modern spacecraft depend on so much computer technology.
1:29
The only real way to see how those systems will work in space is to test them on missions.
1:35
But in space, you don’t normally get second chances.
1:38
Travel through the Van Allen belts means confronting clouds of electrons
1:41
and protons trapped near Earth. But beyond that, through the Earth’s
1:45
magnetosphere, and the risk is solar storms. Higher energy particles come into play,
1:50
potentially lethal cosmic rays moving at light speed that can rip human DNA to shreds.
1:56
Hollywood shows spacecraft gliding effortlessly through space… not the absolute terror of being
2:02
blasted by an invisible barrage of particles that can cripple both the
2:06
mission and the people inside. And if we want to explore space
2:09
even deeper – longer missions to the Moon or trips to Mars, it will mean throwing
2:14
astronauts into a world of cosmic chaos. The good news is, lessons have been learned.
2:19
One of the most important of them came from Artemis I’s radiation sensors. Scientists
2:24
discovered that rotating the spacecraft by 90 degrees during passage through the Van Allen
2:28
belts cut radiation exposure by around half. That first mission was crewed by mannequins.
2:34
The thousands of sensors in these “phantom” space dolls, complete with soft tissues and “internal
2:39
organs”, revealed that the rotation was like turning a shield to face an incoming arrow storm.
2:45
So, the sensors showed the grim reality of space, but they also showed how there
2:50
are ways to reduce ever-present danger. The footage looked perfect. But it masked
2:54
a darker reality: up to 35 millisieverts (mSv) of radiation… on a routine mission.
3:00
For decades, the deadliest realities of space were hidden in the background. But now we know
3:05
the truth, the question needs to be asked: How did the astronauts on the Apollo
3:09
missions survive? Especially at a time when scientists knew much less about space travel
3:14
and equipment was ancient by today’s standards? While the public worried about systems failure
3:19
or explosions, radiation was always at the top of NASA’s concerns. And that was over 50 years ago,
3:25
when scientists were working with slide rules and primitive computers.
3:28
Part of the reason the astronauts came back in good health was just… good fortune.
3:33
The Apollo lunar missions flew during what scientists have called a comparatively quiet
3:37
phase of the solar cycle. Their transit time was also short and that limited radiation exposure.
3:43
But had a large solar storm erupted while they were outside Earth’s magnetic shield,
3:47
history might have looked very different. Timing matters.
3:51
NASA knew it then, but understands it far better now.
3:54
The Sun moves through cycles of activity. But with modern forecasting technology, we can judge
3:59
when it might be safest to leave low Earth orbit. The only problem? NASA’s solar and space weather
4:04
scientists freely admit they don’t know how the strongest, most deadly flares are
4:10
generated. So, they can’t predict them. The astronauts of the Apollo era made
4:14
it look easy. So easy that some of the Moon-landing doubters of the future would
4:18
look at the radiation data and refuse to believe men ever went to the Moon.
4:22
During Apollo 17, astronaut dosimeters recorded relatively modest radiation
4:27
exposure – about 5.5 mSv over 12.5 days. That is manageable by spaceflight
4:33
standards. A chest CT scan can involve several millisieverts. Acute radiation sickness usually
4:39
requires far higher short-term doses. But Artemis I returned data showing a
4:44
much higher overall mission dose: about 26–35 mSv over 25.5 days.
4:51
The mission was almost twice as long, but the dose was almost five times bigger.
4:55
But Apollo used a few dosimeters. Artemis used a lab full of sensors. Same space,
5:01
different measuring sticks. It made a difference.
5:04
Space didn’t suddenly become more dangerous. The real lesson is simpler:
5:08
the longer humans stay beyond Earth’s magnetic shield, the higher the dose climbs.
5:13
But that’s when things are going well on shorter missions.
5:16
A round-trip mission to Mars is estimated to expose astronauts to roughly 1,000 mSv,
5:22
well over NASA’s “safe” career limit. And just one Solar Particle Event (SPE),
5:28
like a massive solar flare, could deliver 1,000+ mSv in a matter of hours.
5:34
This is where modern safety mechanisms kick in. Data from the Artemis program shows a far more
5:39
detailed picture than before. Even simple maneuvers - orientation, shielding placement,
5:44
and belt transit path - can drastically change radiation levels during a mission.
5:49
And modern spaceships come with “storm shelters.” Astronauts can reconfigure the interior of the
5:54
spacecraft and sit the storm out in zones where they won’t suffer from acute radiation syndrome.
5:59
It’s designed to keep the radiation dose around 35 mSv in normal conditions, and below 150 mSv
6:06
inside the shelter during a solar event. And if the astronauts are wearing their
6:10
AstroRad vests, that can help lower the dose. It buys astronauts time, but unfortunately,
6:16
it doesn’t change the laws of physics. The danger is always there.
6:19
If we eventually build bases on the Moon, we will need much more than vests on our bodies.
6:24
NASA’s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) has openly discussed contingency plans for
6:30
future lunar missions. They include devising new kinds of storm shelters for when particle
6:35
storms start raining down on the ship. But the question is… will they work?
6:39
It’s just a fact of space travel that if something goes wrong, it can go very wrong.
6:44
You can’t completely escape the violence of space weather.
6:47
And as NASA recently discovered, you never know when something
6:50
you’ve tested on Earth will work in flight. Take for example, the Orion’s heat shield.
6:55
Entering the Earth’s atmosphere at speeds up to 25,000 miles per hour (40,000 km/h),
6:59
the air in front of the spacecraft is violently compressed. This creates friction
7:03
and heat that can reach 5,000°F (2,760°C). Without shielding, the spacecraft would be
7:08
exposed to extreme conditions that could lead to catastrophic failure and loss of the cabin.
7:13
It’s a major component in survival. So after the Artemis I mission,
7:17
NASA auditors revealed there’d been “critical” issues. Critical, as in, potentially deadly if
7:23
they weren’t fixed for future missions. The public remained blissfully unaware
7:27
that NASA had run into a very serious problem. The current shield on the Orion uses Avcoat,
7:33
a sacrificial material designed to burn away in a controlled fashion. Every flight
7:37
means another cycle of maintenance. A single overlooked fault can turn into a deadly failure.
7:42
That’s what NASA warned in its OIG Report IG-24-011.
7:48
Engineers found after Orion reentered the Earth’s atmosphere in the Artemis I mission,
7:53
the shields materials had been chipped away in at least 100 spots.
7:57
It did its job, but the Avcoat hadn’t behaved how NASA had predicted.
8:01
Parts of the char layer cracked and broke off in fragments, leaving a trail of debris. The
8:06
report said it could, quote, “pose significant risks to the safety of the crew.” And worse,
8:11
the debris could potentially damage the parachute needed for landing.
8:15
NASA used a never-before-tested reentry technique called the “skip entry”.
8:19
Rather than dive straight down through the atmosphere, the spacecraft bounced off it
8:24
using aerodynamic lift to skip back out. It came down a second time, but at a
8:28
slower speed where it could accurately target the landing zone in the Pacific.
8:32
On paper, it should be a much more precise landing requiring fewer resources to get the crew out of
8:37
the water. And because there are two events rather than one, it lowers the acceleration.
8:43
So, the slower landing isn’t just more accurate but it’s safer.
8:46
The only issue? It didn’t quite go as planned.
8:49
The Avcoat couldn’t take the extra bounce. The heat shield heated, cooled,
8:54
and then heated again. The internal pressure built up, which resulted in the cracking.
8:58
The agency said that the cabin temperature data was “well within
9:02
limits” at around the mid-70s Fahrenheit But was NASA hiding a grisly truth?
9:07
If NASA was playing this down, there was every chance we could have another Challenger disaster.
9:12
An independent review agreed with the NASA findings.
9:15
It was a massive relief but it didn’t erase the truth. One of Orion’s most critical safety systems
9:21
behaved in an unexpected way. That is exactly the kind of
9:24
engineering surprise NASA fears most. Reentry is unforgiving. Once the capsule
9:29
hits the atmosphere at lunar-return speed, there is no safe abort, no second chance.
9:35
So, this time, the danger wasn’t galactic radiation threats. It was a standard human error.
9:40
And humans are also the reason why the Moon and its natural resources are about to cause a very…
9:45
different kind of explosion… A geopolitical one.
9:49
Space travel used to be a competition between two political forces: the USA and the Soviet Union.
9:54
But today, the new battle isn’t about walking on the moon.
9:57
It’s about… colonization. And this time, the Soviets
10:00
aren’t America’s rivals. It’s with China. The Moon has been called a “treasure trove
10:05
of resources.” And both nations want to get there first and secure those treasures.
10:09
China has been sending up lunar orbiters, landers, and rovers off its own back,
10:13
an expensive undertaking. Meanwhile, the U.S. is leveraging private-sector
10:17
innovation through companies such as SpaceX. And with an international coalition of
10:21
around 60 different nations to help, it has plenty of backup.
10:25
So, the US has the money and the resources and the friends.
10:29
China has the will and determination and one government which makes all the decisions.
10:34
That last part matters. One set of rules can mean things get done faster.
10:39
But it’s not that the US and China want to colonize the whole of the
10:42
Moon. They’re focused on only one part… A handful of places near the south pole
10:47
where sunlight, terrain, and possible access to water ice might just make it possible to
10:52
build manned Moon bases in the near future. It’s believed that’s where all the water is.
10:58
And water will be needed to start a colony. What NASA calls the Permanently Shadowed
11:02
Regions (PSR) should be ideal resource utilization. It’s also where they’ll
11:07
find the energy needed to power the bases. But it’s not just the lunar south pole where
11:12
they want to set up shop, it’s a specific area around what’s called the Shackleton crater,
11:17
an area about 13 miles (21 km) across. It’s believed the higher levels of hydrogen
11:21
in the crater – already recorded – mean that’s where all the ice is.
11:25
But exactly what’s down there will need to be determined. That’s the point of building bases.
11:30
With a depth of about 2.6 miles (4.2 km), it’s still a mystery to be solved. But
11:34
with almost constant sunlight at some parts of the crater’s rim, it might
11:38
be possible to build solar panel facilities. This is the last frontier of modern exploration
11:43
and the Artemis program is determined to build the first lunar outpost at the Shackleton crater.
11:49
But China’s Chang’e 7 project has also chosen the crater as an outpost site.
11:54
Both countries are already identifying Areas of Interest (AOIs) for future
11:57
Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). But if spaceflight itself is dangerous,
12:01
exploring Shackleton Crater brings a new set of deadly hazards.
12:04
Parts of the rim are steep slopes bathed in sunlight, while just beyond them lie
12:09
plunging descents into darkness that might not have felt sunshine for millions
12:14
of years. Building any kind of station here would be treacherous… and expensive.
12:19
A US study looking at landing sites identified a 1.2 mile (2 km) radius
12:23
exploration zone as a perfect candidate, reported as the best “Peak Near Shackleton”.
12:29
It’s a tiny piece of land. And China wants it, too.
12:33
It hasn’t announced the exact location it’s intending to set up a base,
12:36
but there’s little doubt it’s the same place where the US will start building.
12:41
So, when things get going, can the US and China peacefully co-exist?
12:45
Experts are already saying that whichever side gets their base up and running first,
12:49
will determine the next century of order in space. NASA watchdog reports that NASA may now make
12:54
the lunar landing sometime in 2028 under Artemis IV or V.
12:59
In 2026, the US said “within a decade” it will “establish the first permanently
13:03
inhabited base outside Earth.” It has set aside $20 billion to achieve it.
13:08
China has reported that it will be, quote, “sending humans to the moon by 2030.”
13:13
Sanctions haven’t slowed China down at all. Chang’e 4 landed on the far side of
13:18
the moon in 2019. The first-ever mission to the far side. In 2024, it became the
13:23
first country in history to bring samples back from the far side.
13:26
And now China intends to collaborate with the experienced Russians to build the Lunar Research
13:31
Station (ILRS). Construction will start in 2028, with another 11 countries on board.
13:37
The US and China haven’t yet gotten into a war of words over their lunar ambitions, but NASA
13:42
admitted that China is “a geopolitical competitor challenging U.S. leadership in the space domain.”
13:49
Not a year passes without evidence of this competition.
13:51
In 2011, the US barred China from the International Space Station. Ten years later,
13:56
Beijing launched its own floating laboratory, the Tiangong (“Heavenly Palace”), and a year
14:02
later it was operational with rotating crews. China’s message is clear: We will get there first.
14:08
Jared Isaacman, the administrator of the U.S. space agency, says he won’t let that
14:12
happen. He had China in mind when he said: “We’re going to do everything necessary
14:16
to get back to the Moon, and never let anyone else take it over again.”
14:20
While both nations are looking to set up a base in the same area, they’re also planning
14:24
to utilize as much of the Moon as possible. That includes under the surface. Researchers recently
14:29
said there could be a giant underground complex of caves that could be transformed into a base.
14:35
About 150 meters below the surface there’s an area 262 feet (80 meters) long and 45 meters wide,
14:42
about the size of 14 tennis courts. Believed to be an empty lava tube, the cave could be an ideal
14:47
place for humans to take shelter against the incredibly harsh lunar environment.
14:52
If astronauts can get inside, they could study the rocks to better understand the
14:56
Moon’s formation. Better still, there might be water down there that could give the US
15:00
an advantage in its efforts to colonize. At least 200 such cave complexes have been
15:06
recorded on the Moon and any one of them could provide a base if it’s structurally sound.
15:10
But it won’t be easy. The slopes are full of
15:13
debris. One wrong step could mean setting off an avalanche on the people below. Scaling down
15:18
over 330 feet (100 meters) and getting back out will also pose a significant problem.
15:23
But nowhere is more intriguing than the region around the South Pole–Aitken Basin.
15:28
Close to the resource-rich southern polar zone, it’s the largest crater on the moon,
15:33
covering 1,600 miles (2,500 km) in diameter and nearly 4 - 5 miles (6.4 and 8km) deep.
15:37
China landed a spacecraft there in 2019, when Chang'e 4 mission touched down inside the
15:42
basin. But the United States made a different discovery when NASA’s GRAIL mission detected a
15:48
huge buried mass beneath the basin, estimated to be about 5 times larger than Hawaii Island.
15:54
No one knows what it is. It might be deep mantle material pushed to the surface… or debris from the
16:00
asteroid that hit the Moon 4 billions years ago. Either way, it could be rich in metal.
16:06
But the Moon may have other secrets. There are other lava tubes vast enough to shelter
16:10
entire neighborhoods. In Marius Hills, estimates suggest tunnels stretching for tens of miles, with
16:16
volumes large enough to rival parts of Manhattan. And that changes everything.
16:21
Because to engineers, these aren’t just caves, they’re the foundations of future underground
16:26
cities. There’s space for industry, farming, labs, and eventually settlements.
16:30
They might be the answer to living on the Moon. The ultimate safe place,
16:34
or at least one of the safest known natural shelter options. Claiming these caves would be
16:39
a turning point in world history, but there’s one major obstacle that stands in the way.
16:43
And it’s tiny. Dust.
16:46
Specifically, lunar dust. Landing on the Moon
16:49
is anything but straightforward. There’s no cushion waiting on the lunar surface.
16:54
No weather, no air, nothing to disperse the exhaust. Just lunar regolith, a layer of jagged,
17:00
glass-like dust created over billions of years. It’s these tough edges that give it what
17:05
scientists have called an “electrostatic clinginess.”
17:08
And the worst part? It’s notorious for infiltrating machinery.
17:12
On the Apollo missions, the astronauts complained it stuck to suits, scratched their visors, and got
17:17
into seals. Wherever it went, it attached itself. In 2024, Intuitive Machines’s Odysseus became the
17:24
first U.S. spacecraft to soft-land on the Moon since Apollo. And when the lunar night fell,
17:29
it shut down, exactly as planned. But tipping over onto its side? That definitely wasn't.
17:35
History had been made, but not in the way NASA hoped.
17:39
The theory was that Odysseus may have caught one of its landing legs in a crevice. It
17:42
might also have been traveling too fast. Dust was not the sole cause. But it reminded
17:47
everyone that lunar landing margins are very thin. But what happens if something goes wrong while
17:52
astronauts are transferring between vehicles? The Orion spacecraft isn’t just another
17:57
capsule. It was built for deep space, with extra protection and a focus on keeping the crew alive.
18:03
But SpaceX’s Human Landing System is different. It’s designed for mass efficiency, cargo volume,
18:08
and getting to the lunar surface. One behaves like a heavily protected
18:13
command capsule. The other is closer to a large transport vehicle optimized for payload.
18:18
And that difference shows up in the structure itself. Orion’s “tank-like” shielding offers
18:23
around 50 grams per square centimeter (11 ounces per sq inch) of protection,
18:26
while Starship’s lighter “balloon-like” skin is closer to closer to 3.2 grams
18:30
per square centimeter (0.72 oz per sq inch). In radiation terms, thicker material between
18:33
crew and space helps. But conditions change when astronauts move from one vehicle to another.
18:38
That means, the most exposed moments of a lunar mission may not be on the
18:42
surface. It may be in the in-between moments, like docking, crew transfer,
18:47
and movement through minimally shielded areas. This is what NASA is facing. Not just missed
18:53
schedules, but countless points of failure across every critical layer of the mission. Dust. Vehicle
18:59
transfers. Loose panels. Anything can go wrong. And it’s not just speculation.
19:04
NASA’s own watchdog reports that the lunar return campaign is struggling. The US Government
19:09
Accountability Office (GAO) noted in its 2024 review that the Artemis III was unlikely to land
19:16
in 2025 as originally planned. And it didn’t.
19:19
The reasons were many, including an aggressive development schedule, major delays to SpaceX’s HLS
19:25
milestones, and ongoing issues with suits designs. The GAO added that if development follows the
19:30
average timeline of a major NASA project, Artemis III would likely slip to early 2027.
19:36
The rules for the Moon aren’t settled… and they might get even messier over time.
19:41
Right now, countries are working under voluntary agreements called the Artemis
19:44
Accords. They say missions should respect historic landing sites and avoid getting in
19:49
each other’s way. They also introduce the idea of “keep-out zones” around active operations
19:55
But here’s the problem… none of it is clearly defined.
19:58
What counts as interference? And how big does a zone have
20:01
to be before it starts blocking other countries from the same lunar terrain?
20:05
No one agrees on how close you’re allowed to get to someone else on the Moon.
20:08
And importantly, Russia and China are not parties to the Artemis Accords.
20:12
Russia has been critical of them because they represent a U.S.-led framework. China
20:17
wasn’t invited to participate in part because U.S. laws bar NASA from working with China
20:23
Countries including the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, Canada and Japan have all signed the
20:28
Artemis Accords. But that’s not surprising, they’re already aligned with the U.S. and
20:32
most have their own ambitions for the Moon. So they’re willing to cooperate to get there.
20:36
This isn’t new. Space has always required international agreements.
20:40
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty said space should be peaceful, and that
20:44
it should benefit all of humanity. But that’s where things get fuzzy.
20:48
Almost any country can claim what it’s doing “benefits humanity,” even if it mainly benefits
20:53
itself. A later attempt, the 1979 Moon Agreement, went further. It called for the Moon to be used
20:59
only for peaceful purposes and treating its resources as the “common heritage of mankind.”
21:04
But it never really took hold. The US, China, and Russia didn’t sign it.
21:09
So where does that leave us? Well, if the US could fix all
21:12
the flaws in its program and get to the Moon first, it could potentially take the
21:15
high ground and start making the rules. It would be natural as the US could say it had achieved
21:20
technological supremacy to benefit everyone. But the US is scrambling. Every mission slip
21:25
up gives more time for rivals to develop their own legal architecture and publish competing
21:30
rules. They would have the high-ground. The fact is this: the words used in those
21:35
past agreements about benefiting all mankind are currently not realistic.
21:39
Geopolitics doesn’t work that way. The most useful parts of the Moon won’t
21:44
be governed on paper. They’ll be governed on the surface. Whoever arrives first,
21:48
stays longest, and builds presence will set the rules others later accept.
21:53
That’s why a geopolitical space conflict might be unavoidable.
21:56
But first, someone has to build a base… and it won’t be easy.
