Off-season durian prices in the Mekong Delta have surged to their highest levels in three years as Vietnam finds itself effectively “alone in the market”. Notably, the country may overtake Thailand to become the world’s largest durian exporter in 2026.

Rapid growth in durian exports

In the Mekong Delta, off-season Monthong durian is being purchased by traders at VND146,000-155,000 per kilogram (approximately US$5.90-6.30), while Grade B fetches VND126,000-127,000 per kilogram (around US$5.10).

Similarly, Ri6 Grade A has risen to VND80,000-87,000 per kilogram (US$3.20-3.50), with Grade B at about VND70,000 per kilogram (US$2.80), roughly double the price recorded in the same period last year.

Experts explain that early each year, durian prices tend to spike because Vietnam is effectively the only country in harvest season. The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association estimates that durian export turnover in January alone may have reached US$200-300 million.

In recent years, Vietnam’s durian industry has maintained strong growth momentum, becoming a “billion-dollar” fruit following the official export of fresh durian to China.

Export revenue climbed from a modest US$421 million in 2022, the first year Vietnamese durian was officially exported to China, to US$2.24 billion in 2023.

By 2024, export earnings reached nearly US$3.3 billion, up more than US$1 billion from 2023 and 7.8 times higher than in 2022.

In 2025, despite China tightening controls on auramine O and cadmium residues, Vietnam still recorded a bumper year, with durian exports hitting US$3.86 billion, up more than 20 percent year-on-year and accounting for over 45 percent of total fruit and vegetable export value. In China, the largest consumer market, Vietnam’s market share has risen sharply, nearly matching that of Thailand.

Meanwhile, The Nation Thailand reported that in 2024 Thailand exported 859,157 tonnes of durian worth more than 134.85 billion baht (US$4.34 billion). In 2025, export value declined to nearly 125.87 billion baht (US$4.05 billion), despite export volume increasing to 982,016 tonnes.

“With the current momentum, Vietnam could surpass Thailand this year to become the world’s largest durian exporter,” Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, told VietNamNet on February 27.

According to Nguyen, Thailand’s durian industry is facing a severe labor shortage in harvesting and packaging. Logistics challenges have also emerged, with shipments forced to take longer routes, extending transport time by about a week and affecting both quality and prices.

Thailand’s main harvest season lasts only two to three months, creating pressure on container turnover. Previously, a container could complete three to four rotations per month, but with longer routes it may now manage only two, slowing export pace.

“All these difficulties for Thailand are advantages for Vietnam,” Nguyen emphasized. Beyond the main season, Vietnam’s durian is harvested almost year-round. Production and export chains have become increasingly complete, with established export standards, traceability systems, and improved logistics. Output has also expanded steadily as cultivation areas increase.

Quality race to retain China market share

The Secretary General noted that China remains the world’s largest durian consumer market. In recent years, it has signed protocols allowing more countries to export durian. However, the primary competitors in China are still Vietnam and Thailand.

According to Anchanlee Suwajittananon, Director-General of Thailand’s Department of Agricultural Extension, authorities have coordinated with local governments, businesses, and farmers to establish a production and harvesting management framework in the eastern region, the country’s main export-growing area with output of 1.06 million tonnes. The goal is to ensure all shipments meet ripeness standards rather than relying on experience or fruit age estimation.

Specifically, Kradum Thong must reach at least 27 percent dry matter, Chanee and Puang Manee 30 percent, while Monthong and Kanyao require 32 percent. Any fruit below these thresholds is considered immature and ineligible for circulation.

Before harvesting, farmers must submit samples to district-level authorities for analysis. Once standards are met, certification is issued and accompanies shipments to purchasing depots or packing facilities.

The Thai government expects stricter controls to restore buyer confidence, reduce quality complaints, and raise export value.

In Vietnam, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has officially issued procedures for food safety control of fresh durian exports. The framework systematizes food safety requirements from cultivation, harvesting, transportation, storage, and packaging to export.

Registration, appraisal, and certification of food safety for export consignments are also subject to strict oversight. Prior to export, durian must meet standards set by the ministry.

At the end of December, the ministry launched the Vietnam Agricultural Product Traceability System, with durian selected as the first pilot fruit. Under the roadmap, the system aims to build a centralized database, integrate sectoral data, and digitally sign participating enterprises’ information in accordance with regulations. The Ministry of Public Security will integrate data into electronic authentication stamps to ensure consistency between displayed information and traceability records.

“With the remarkable rebound in 2025, the industry now has a solid foundation to confidently target export turnover exceeding US$4 billion, potentially reaching US$4.5 billion in 2026,” Dang Phuc Nguyen said.

Tam An