What is El Nino and How Will it Affect Singapore in 2026?

Singapore's weather service says El Nino conditions may develop between June and July.

There is a high chance of an El Nino event happening in 2026, with warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific.

The last El Nino event was between 2023 and early 2024, followed by La Nina, which brought more rain to the region.

A strong El Nino event happened between 2015 and 2016.

The weather service also predicts a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event between July and August.

So, what are El Nino, La Nina, and the Indian Ocean Dipole, and how do they affect Singapore?

Let's take a closer look.

El Nino and La Nina are two phases of a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that affects the weather worldwide.

The World Meteorological Organization says this pattern has two extreme phases: El Nino and La Nina, with a neutral phase in between.

El Nino can last up to 18 months, and La Nina can last up to three years.

El Nino events happen every three to five years, bringing hotter and drier conditions to Southeast Asia.

The term El Nino was first used by fishermen in Ecuador and Peru to describe a warm ocean current.

El Nino means 'little boy', and La Nina means 'little girl'.

Normally, trade winds in the Pacific Ocean blow from east to west, taking warm water towards Asia.

Cold water rises to replace the warm water, a process called upwelling.

El Nino and La Nina disrupt these normal conditions.

During El Nino, trade winds weaken, and warm water moves back towards the Americas.

During La Nina, stronger trade winds push warm water towards Asia.

El Nino brings more rain to the central and eastern Pacific, but less to the western Pacific.

La Nina brings less rain to the central and eastern Pacific, but more to the western Pacific.

In a neutral state, temperatures and rainfall in the Pacific are near average.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is similar to El Nino, but happens in the Indian Ocean and lasts for a shorter time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has three phases: positive, negative, and neutral.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event brings drier and warmer conditions to Southeast Asia.

Singapore and the region tend to experience drier conditions during a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event.

Singapore's driest year on record was in 1997, when both El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event occurred.

Singapore monitors El Nino using the Nino3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies.

The threshold for an El Nino event is a temperature anomaly of more than 0.65°C above normal.

During an El Nino event, Singapore can expect hotter and drier weather.

El Nino events have the greatest impact on Singapore's rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.

The last strong El Nino event in 2015/2016 brought 35% less rainfall to Singapore from June to September.

Temperatures will also rise during an El Nino event.

El Nino events bring warmer temperatures to Singapore, especially when the event weakens.

During the last strong El Nino event, temperatures in March to May were 1°C above average.

This made it Singapore's second-warmest March-to-May period on record.

It is hard to predict exactly how hot and dry the weather will be in Singapore.

There are two factors that limit predictability: the strength of the El Nino event and its interaction with other weather phenomena.

The development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event may make the hot and dry conditions worse.

Climate models show a wide range of predictions for the intensity of the El Nino event.

Most models suggest it could be stronger than the 2023/2024 El Nino event.

We will have a better idea of the El Nino event's intensity in the next few months.

The southwest monsoon period is typically the dry season for Singapore and the region.

An El Nino event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event could make the dry season more intense and longer.

This could increase the risk of haze affecting Singapore.

Drier and warmer conditions can lead to more peatland and vegetation fires in the region.

If fires develop near Singapore, there is a risk of transboundary haze.

The dry season this year could be more intense and prolonged compared to recent years.

The government is prepared to activate response plans if air quality deteriorates.

The public is advised to monitor air quality and follow official advisories.

People are encouraged to check their air purifiers and follow official advisories.

There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events.

However, climate change can amplify the impacts of El Nino, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

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