What the polls say about One Nation's growing popularity

Analysis of polls

Government and politics topic

June 2, 2026, 5:00 am

One Nation's primary vote is rising and now leads both major parties.

When reading polls, consider Pauline Hanson's view.

Hanson's popularity has increased in the past year, but she doesn't focus on polls.

Polls show trends and sentiment, but aren't always accurate.

Hanson was asked about polls showing One Nation's rise, and she responded with caution.

Polling is useful for detecting trends, but not for predicting election results.

Few people, including Hanson, think polls can predict election outcomes.

Hanson has been cautious in her comments about One Nation's chances.

One Nation is gaining support, but Hanson downplays the significance of polls.

Hanson said, 'There's a movement' and 'people want change'.

She also said, 'It is only a poll' and 'The real poll is on election day'.

One Nation is moving into traditional Liberal territory, focusing on economics.

Counting chickens

Hanson may be considering a lower house seat, a necessary step for prime ministerial aspirations.

Then came a surprising comment.

Hanson said she could be prime minister from the Senate, which is possible according to Australia's constitution.

This could be seen as Hanson getting ahead of herself or trying to manage expectations.

Either way, Hanson is openly discussing the possibility of becoming prime minister.

Under Angus Taylor, the Coalition is focusing on cultural issues.

Two groups of One Nation voters are emerging, posing different threats to Labor and the Coalition.

Some conservatives dislike Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and want Labor gone.

These voters think One Nation has a better chance of success than the Liberals.

This shift is driving the Liberals to move to the right, with policies like dumping net zero emissions commitments.

So far, these moves have not stopped the losses or won back supporters.

One Nation is moving into traditional Liberal territory, focusing on economics.

Taylor's strategy includes backing the return of former PM Tony Abbott to the public arena.

Abbott has started making his pitch to win back voters.

It's too early to know if Abbott's approach will be effective.

Even if successful, reclaiming that base would only be the first step for the Coalition.

Tony Abbott is the new Liberal Party president.

A threat to Labor

A second group of One Nation supporters is emerging, made up of younger, working Australians struggling to make ends meet.

These voters feel the economy is not working for them and are prepared to back One Nation as a way to protest.

These Australians helped Labor win in 2022 and 2025, and will decide if the party can retain a majority in 2028.

The Coalition will also compete for these voters, but Labor has an advantage.

Labor is not panicking, but is taking the polls seriously.

The next federal election will have two-party preferred contests between Labor and One Nation.

The locations of these contests are uncertain, but likely to be in regional or outer-suburban areas.

Hanson downplayed the significance of a new poll showing One Nation surpassing Labor's national primary vote.

Labor rejects budget blame narrative

Labor doesn't think the post-budget polls showing a rise in One Nation's support are entirely due to the unpopularity of its tax changes.

One Nation recently won a historic electoral victory in the Farrer by-election.

Winning the by-election was a significant moment for Hanson and One Nation.

One Nation is enjoying a honeymoon period after the win.

But Labor is not leaving it to chance and will work to win back disaffected voters.

Chalmers summarized Labor's fightback, deriding conservative opponents as a 'three-ring circus'.

Labor's federal budget is not popular with its target demographic, according to new polling.

A test in Victoria

The next electoral test for Labor is the Victorian state election.

The Victorian government, led by Premier Jacinta Allan, is looking tired after over a decade in office.

Few inside Labor are optimistic about the party's chances in the election.

There is a possibility that Victoria will end up with a One Nation-backed Coalition minority government.

If One Nation's support continues to grow, the pressure will be on Albanese to make inroads with disaffected voters.

For now, Hanson's cautious approach to polling remains the most useful guide.

The numbers show a shift in Australian politics, but it's unclear if this is a lasting realignment or a temporary protest vote.

Trends are not destiny, and Labor and the Coalition still have time to alter the trajectory.

June 2, 2026, 5:00 am

June 2, 2026, 5:46 am

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