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Why Humans Should Merge with AI | D. Scott Phoenix | TED - Video học tiếng Anh
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Why Humans Should Merge with AI | D. Scott Phoenix | TED
Why Humans Should Merge with AI | D. Scott Phoenix | TED
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Untertitel (233)
0:04
So if you're like me,
0:05
you might be feeling at least a bit unmoored
0:08
by how fast everything is changing.
0:11
AI, our society, the world order.
0:15
And that's just since this morning.
0:18
(Laughter)
0:19
I have two young daughters, and like a lot of us,
0:21
I've been trying to make sense of the future they're growing up into.
0:26
And what helped me make sense of it actually wasn't looking forward.
0:30
It was going back, all the way back.
0:33
You see, two billion years ago,
0:35
life on Earth was mostly single-celled
0:38
until bacteria figured out a new trick, photosynthesis,
0:42
which makes oxygen.
0:44
Now at the time, oxygen was poison.
0:47
It shredded the delicate chemistry that nearly all life on Earth depended on,
0:52
and the planet changed faster than life could keep up with.
0:57
Some scientists call what followed the first mass extinction event
1:01
in Earth's history.
1:03
But somewhere in that dying world, an extraordinary thing happened.
1:08
A larger cell swallowed a smaller one, and instead of digesting it,
1:12
they merged.
1:14
The smaller cell became what we now call the mitochondria,
1:18
the little powerhouse inside almost every complex cell on earth.
1:22
That merger created an energy surplus so vast,
1:26
it funded everything that followed.
1:28
Larger cells, bodies, brains.
1:31
Every breath you take
1:33
is still powered by the descendants of that ancient partnership.
1:37
That one accident in a dying world
1:40
is the reason everyone in this room is alive today.
1:44
Biologists call these moments major transitions
1:48
when separate entities stop competing and start building a new whole.
1:53
Like how molecules became cells,
1:55
cells became bodies
1:57
and individuals became societies.
1:59
Every rung on that ladder was climbed through mergers.
2:04
Now we're on the cusp of the next major transition,
2:08
the merger of humans and AI.
2:11
That's right.
2:12
We're going to eat the AI.
2:14
(Laughter)
2:15
Now I know what you’re thinking, OK,
2:17
maybe you’re rolling your eyes.
2:19
Maybe you're laughing,
2:20
maybe you feel nervous -- it’s OK.
2:22
I felt all of those things the first time I heard myself say it.
2:26
So let me explain.
2:28
For 15 years, I worked on building AI.
2:30
I started one of the early AI companies.
2:32
I raised a quarter of a billion dollars to do it,
2:35
and I sold my business to Google.
2:37
And not long ago,
2:38
I was at a private event
2:39
with many of the leaders building the AIs we all use every day.
2:44
People you'd recognize.
2:46
And I asked them
2:47
how many believe there's more than a 10 percent chance
2:51
that AI kills most of humanity in the next 20 years.
2:56
Almost every hand went up.
2:59
The people building these systems know how dangerous they are,
3:04
but they're trapped in a race
3:06
where anyone who slows down gets overtaken by someone who doesn't.
3:11
If one company pauses for safety, another one takes the market.
3:15
If a country stops to regulate, another one races ahead.
3:20
Every AI founder has had the same conversation with themselves
3:24
late at night.
3:25
You lie there and you think,
3:27
if I don't build this, someone worse will.
3:31
AI is the oxygen crisis of our era,
3:34
and it's coming, whether we're ready or not.
3:37
So what do we do?
3:39
When a lot of people think about AI,
3:41
they think about what it will do to us,
3:43
what jobs it will take,
3:45
what we should do to slow it down or regulate it.
3:49
And those are important questions,
3:51
but they're actually downstream of a much deeper question,
3:54
which is what happens if AI stays separate from us?
3:59
Right now, your AI lives on the other side of a screen.
4:02
You ask it a question: it answers.
4:04
You close your laptop and it's gone.
4:07
But while your laptop is closed, the AI keeps getting better at your job.
4:13
And if we stay separate, the AI is not your tool.
4:17
It's your replacement.
4:18
One that gets smarter and faster and cheaper every week.
4:23
It doesn't take much to notice what happened
4:26
the last time a new apex intelligence arrived here on Earth.
4:29
That intelligence was us.
4:31
And since we got here,
4:33
we've driven to extinction every competing intelligence
4:37
between Homo sapiens and Pan troglodytes.
4:40
Today, we keep our closest animal ancestors, chimpanzees,
4:43
in reserves
4:45
for their protection from us.
4:48
Without a merger, AI isn’t a partner -- it’s a rival.
4:52
So what's the good news?
4:54
The good news is a merger isn't something we need to decide to start.
4:58
It's something we need to notice that we are already in.
5:02
When did you stop remembering phone numbers?
5:05
There was no moment you decided to forget them.
5:09
They just moved from your head to your pocket.
5:12
Your calendar probably went next.
5:14
Then little judgment calls you used to make for yourself.
5:18
The tool was great at it, so you let the tool do it.
5:21
And while something left your head, a better thing took its place.
5:24
You stopped checking your spelling and you started writing.
5:28
You stopped remembering how to get there,
5:30
and you started thinking about what you’d say when you arrived.
5:34
And notice how we keep pulling these tools closer to us.
5:38
The mainframe was in a whole other building.
5:40
We put the PC on our desk, the smartphone in our pocket,
5:43
the smartwatch on our wrist,
5:45
smart glasses on our face.
5:47
Every step closer to our minds, closer to the speed of thought.
5:52
And even that boundary is starting to blur.
5:56
Right now, paralyzed patients are typing with their thoughts.
5:59
Neural implants are restoring speech, vision and hearing
6:03
to people who've lost them.
6:05
Noland Arbaugh, the first person to receive a Neuralink brain implant,
6:09
says that using it feels like using the force.
6:12
The machine doesn’t feel like a machine --
6:14
it feels like him.
6:16
And you may not realize it,
6:18
but a technology we all use every day is learning to hear our thoughts.
6:23
The Face ID system used to unlock your phone
6:26
is being repositioned into headphones and glasses,
6:29
where it can recognize microscopic muscle movements just beneath our skin,
6:33
movements imperceptible to the human eye.
6:37
The system that first learned to recognize us
6:39
is now starting to see inside.
6:42
Today, a brain implant has about 1,000 connections into the brain,
6:46
and soon it will have 10,000,
6:48
and then 100,000 and then a million.
6:51
At 1,000 connections, you can restore movement.
6:54
At 10,000, speech.
6:56
At a million connections,
6:58
you stop restoring what was lost and you start adding what was never there.
7:03
Imagine learning a language in an afternoon,
7:06
a new skill overnight.
7:09
Maybe even sharing a memory with a friend
7:12
and having it feel just as real to them as it felt to you.
7:17
The thing about this future is it doesn't require new technology.
7:20
It just requires more of the same technology.
7:25
Someone you work with will get it first,
7:27
and you'll hold out for a while,
7:29
the way you did with the smartphone,
7:31
but eventually you won't.
7:34
The advantages of integration will be hard to compete with.
7:37
Think about what we even do when we use a computer today.
7:40
You move a picture of an arrow around until it touches a picture of a folder.
7:45
Inside, there are pictures of files.
7:48
You click, you scroll, you drag.
7:52
Sending a file to a colleague takes a whole minute.
7:54
Two of those seconds were the decision.
7:58
The rest of it is the equivalent of walking across your house
8:01
to flip a light switch.
8:02
With a system that can hear our thoughts,
8:05
you skip the walk.
8:08
The further this goes, the more deeply we integrate with AI,
8:11
the harder it will be to tell where our thoughts end and AI begins.
8:16
For example,
8:17
what's the square root of 117 trillion?
8:21
Go ahead, I'll wait.
8:23
(Laughter)
8:24
If you tried to answer that, you felt something.
8:26
You felt a gap, a pause between the question arriving
8:29
and anything starting to form.
8:32
And you've lived your whole life inside that gap.
8:35
Close it and the answer arrives instantly,
8:37
the way you know your name,
8:39
like a memory.
8:41
One that bridges the distance between human and AI.
8:45
Now I think we'll choose to merge
8:47
because the alternative, being replaced, is far worse.
8:52
But every major transition in the history of life has a condition:
8:56
the parts have to remember that they are parts.
9:00
A cell in your body wants to grow and replicate.
9:03
And normally its growth serves you.
9:05
Your cells grow so you can grow.
9:08
But sometimes a cell forgets that it belongs to a whole.
9:11
It starts growing without limit.
9:13
And if your immune system fails to catch it,
9:16
we call that cancer.
9:18
The thing about untreated cancer is it succeeds for a while.
9:22
The tumor grows,
9:24
but eventually, the cancer kills the host,
9:28
which kills the cancer.
9:29
A part forgets the whole,
9:31
and the whole dies, which kills the part.
9:35
This pattern repeats at every scale.
9:39
Our civilization is itself a merger.
9:41
It is the sometimes fragile, invisible agreement
9:44
that millions of strangers will share institutions,
9:48
sacrifices and a future.
9:51
No one person built this system, and no one group controls it,
9:54
but we all rely on it.
9:56
And as AI arrives and the world gets more turbulent,
10:00
every part of the society we depend on for our survival
10:04
will be tempted to defect.
10:07
People who lose their livelihoods will feel abandoned.
10:10
People who keep theirs will feel entitled to look away.
10:14
And bit by bit, the agreement frays.
10:18
Major transitions fail
10:20
when the parts break before they can adapt.
10:24
And for us to make it to a merger with AI,
10:27
we have to stay merged with each other.
10:31
Major transitions fail when we don't make that leap.
10:36
The thing about the future is we all have to share the same one,
10:41
and we either all make it there together
10:44
or we don't make it there at all.
10:47
Two billion years ago, the first merger gave us our cells,
10:52
and the ones that followed gave us our bodies,
10:54
our minds and our civilization.
10:57
Every beautiful, difficult thing that followed,
11:00
followed because the parts held together.
11:04
Now our oxygen crisis is arriving, and it will not be gentle.
11:11
Jobs will change and some will disappear.
11:14
Institutions will shake and some will fail.
11:18
Surviving this will take everything that we have.
11:22
So here's what I'm asking from all of us,
11:25
for every day from now on.
11:28
Hold together.
11:30
Do not indulge the fantasy
11:33
that your side can let the other side sink
11:37
and somehow stay dry.
11:39
The universe has been doing this for a long time,
11:42
and the mergers that worked left descendants.
11:46
The ones that failed left fossils.
11:49
I want my daughters to be descendants.
11:51
And I want yours to be, too.
11:54
Thank you.
11:55
(Applause)
