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0:00Over the past four years, thousands
of Ukrainians have made the ultimate
0:05sacrifice defending their country
against an expansionist Russia.
0:09Yet, less than 40 miles from the war —
on the other side of Ukraine — lies a
0:15European territory that desperately
wants to be absorbed by Moscow.
0:20There’s just one problem: Putin refuses.
0:24It’s certainly not for lack of ability.
0:28Transnistria, as it’s commonly known, is home to
about half a million people. It measures about
0:34200 miles top to bottom and 30 miles across —
making it slightly bigger than Rhode Island.
0:42Officially, it’s part of Moldova; no
UN member recognizes its independence.
0:48But Transnistria is a “country” in all but
name: it has its own laws, border crossings,
0:54parliament, police, schools, central
bank, currency, and postage stamps.
1:00Although Moldova proper is eight times larger,
1:04the two armies are roughly the same
size. Neither is a part of NATO.
1:10In other words, even Russia’s now beleaguered army
could no doubt annex Transnistria in a matter of
1:16days, if not hours. Unless Moldova resisted,
Moscow may not even have to lift a finger.
1:24In 2006, the Transnistrian government formally
requested to be seized by Russia. Last year,
1:31it renewed its appeal — pleading with
Putin to come, quote “protect” it.
1:37Sure, it’s tiny, but so is South Ossetia
— a breakaway state in Georgia — which,
1:43unlike Transnistria, Moscow
officially recognized in 2008.
1:48True, it’s geographically disconnected
from Russia, but so is Kaliningrad,
1:53a fully Russian enclave in Europe
sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland.
1:59And like Ukraine, a large number of
its residents are Russian citizens,
2:03giving the Kremlin an excuse to, in
its words, “intervene on their behalf.”
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2:22In the aftermath of World War I,
2:24Stalin had his eyes set on this
land — roughly present-day Moldova.
2:29Called “Bessarabia,” Romania had
seized it from Russia during the
2:34war and Moscow was now eager to reclaim it.
2:38But rather than merely absorb it into the
Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic next
2:43door — which might be seen as a naked land grab
— Stalin’s plan was to cultivate a distinctive
2:49Moldovan identity within the existing
USSR — justifying its eventual expansion.
2:57First, he created a new “Moldavian Autonomous
Republic” within the Ukrainian one.
3:04Logically, this didn’t make a ton
of sense — ethnic Moldovans were
3:08a minority in their titular republic from day one.
3:12Politically, however, it was quite useful,
because of what he did fifteen years later.
3:19During the second world war, the USSR
signed a secret agreement with Germany,
3:24allowing the former to finally annex Bessarabia.
3:27The Moldavian Republic was renamed and
expanded to include all this new land.
3:34The Soviets could argue they had simply
“restored” Moldova to its rightful, “full” size.
3:40In other words: what became “Moldova” for
the rest of the Cold War was actually a
3:45combination of two different territories. The
left 80% had been under Romanian control for
3:52the preceding decade and a half, whereas the
right sliver had been part of the Soviet Union.
3:58And a lot had happened in those
15 years between 1924 and 39.
4:04The right side had already been
collectivized and was now home to
4:08dozens of giant factories and power
plants. Despite being much smaller,
4:13it produced 56% of Moldova’s
consumer goods and 90% of its energy.
4:20The left side, meanwhile,
was largely agricultural.
4:25Even after the two parts were combined,
Moscow continued to treat both sides very
4:30differently. The right side was seen as more
loyal, more “Soviet,” and more hardworking.
4:37It would take fifty years, for
example, for someone from the
4:40left side to be chosen as the leader of
the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic.
4:46All this meant that, as the Soviet
Union later began collapsing,
4:50the two sides leaned in very
different directions. After all,
4:54they had different histories, different
identities, and different economies.
5:00As the Berlin Wall fell, the Moldavian Republic
began transitioning from Cyrillic characters,
5:06which the Soviets required, to the
traditional Latin script, used in Romania.
5:11Those on the right side of the republic could
see the (now literal) writing on the wall:
5:17they were already in a numerical minority, but,
5:20without Moscow’s backing, they would
soon become a political minority also.
5:26In the worst case, they feared a new,
independent Moldova might merge with
5:30Romania, leaving them even further from power.
5:34So, after Moldova declared independence
from the USSR, elites from the right side,
5:39who had much to lose, declared independence
from Moldova, becoming present-day Transnistria.
5:47Moldova quickly moved on with the times, adopting
the Romanian tricolor flag and national anthem.
5:54Transnistria clung to the past: becoming
a strange sort of “living Soviet museum.”
6:01To this day, its flag still
features a hammer and sickle,
6:05although the modern Russian flag is also
flown throughout the territory. Statues
6:10of Lenin are hard to avoid. And its security
service is based in the old KGB headquarters.
6:18Now, in theory, this should’ve
been an easy conflict to solve.
6:23For all their differences, the gulf
between Moldova and Transnistria
6:27was still relatively small compared to
nearly every other post-Soviet dispute.
6:32There was (and is) no religious animosity,
for example. There’s no ethnic division,
6:39either — despite being Russia-aligned,
Transnistria is almost exactly one third
6:44Moldovan, Russian, and Ukrainian. The
three groups live largely in harmony.
6:51Likewise, the actual fighting was short-lived
and well-contained. A hundred thousand people
6:57died during the war over in Bosnia. Here, fewer
than one thousand perished in 1992, when Moldova
7:05tried to reclaim Transnistria. There’ve been
zero casualties in the three decades since.
7:11You could even argue their two economies
are complementary — food from the left,
7:16energy and industry from the right.
7:19For all these reasons, no one expected this
schism to end in a frozen, 30-year stalemate.
7:26…Not even Transnistria itself.
7:29Its declaration of independence was
likely a calculated maneuver designed
7:33to maximize its leverage vis-à-vis
Moldova: allowing it to negotiate a
7:38favorable position or even complete
autonomy, in a unified federation.
7:43But Moldova didn’t bite.
7:47Part of the problem is that
things went a little too well.
7:51Moldova, of course, is far from
overjoyed by the current arrangement.
7:56Its biggest frustration are the roughly one
thousand Russian troops still stationed in
8:01Transnistria. Though tiny in tactical
terms, the symbolism of any Russian
8:07soldiers on territory internationally
recognized as Moldova is… not ideal.
8:13On the other hand, their border is nothing like
the Korean DMZ. Both populations freely and
8:20easily move between territories. In fact, some
Moldovans save money by buying Transnistrian
8:26licence plates. Transnistrians, meanwhile, cross
the border for air travel and better healthcare.
8:33In one survey, Moldovans ranked solving the
Transnistrian issue as their “ninth or tenth”
8:39highest priority, far below everyday
concerns like crime and corruption. As
8:45one of the poorest nations in Europe,
Moldova simply has bigger fish to fry.
8:51Fully integrating its breakaway state, moreover,
8:54would create all kinds of new complications.
It would also radically shift its political
9:00culture toward Russia, a prospect
many Moldovans are eager to avoid.
9:06Nor does Transnistria feel much urgency.
9:10Not needing to abide by international law,
being in close proximity to a major seaport,
9:15and having long, porous borders, it turns out,
can be enormously profitable when combined.
9:22For decades, goods were shipped
through Odesa into Transnistria and
9:27then smuggled into Moldova or back
into Ukraine tax and tariff-free.
9:32At one point, it officially “imported” four and
a half times as many goods as Moldova proper,
9:38despite being something like
six times less populous.
9:42If it actually smoked all the cigarettes
that passed through its borders,
9:46every resident would need to
burn through twelve packs a week.
9:50This legal limbo is particularly lucrative
for its leaders and their cronies.
9:56Its first president — who cultivated
a Lenin-like appearance — exempted his
10:01associate’s company, ironically
called “Sheriff,” from taxes.
10:05Sheriff, in turn, supported the Smirnov
government and grew unbelievably powerful. Today,
10:12the company is ubiquitous throughout the
territory; it owns most gas stations,
10:16supermarkets, malls, and TV stations.
10:20Somehow, it owns a professional football club and
one of the largest and best stadiums in Eastern
10:25Europe. One can only guess how the company
earned the $200 million it took to build.
10:33Even many working-class Transnistrians
are content with the status quo.
10:38Sheriff provides employees with the benefits
they wistfully associate with the former Soviet
10:43Union. And most have access to a Ukrainian,
Russian, or Moldovan passport for travel.
10:53Moscow holds all the cards. It has the
power either to subsidize Transnistria
10:59indefinitely or to force it, at any time,
to the negotiating table with Moldova.
11:05In addition to the thousand soldiers
it keeps stationed in the territory,
11:09and even more decisive, is its supply of gas.
11:13The Kremlin is notorious both
for giving generous “friends and
11:17family” discounts and imposing
steep markups for its rivals.
11:22In 2019, for instance, it charged Moldova proper
11:26$391 and Transnistria just $163
for the same amount of energy.
11:33Here, however, it goes one step further:
it doesn’t even enforce its debt.
11:40Over the past two decades, Transnistria
has “bought” well over $6 billion worth of
11:45gas — seven times its GDP. And yet,
it hasn’t actually paid a nickel.
11:53Each month, the Russian state energy
corporation Gazprom sends Transnistria its bill,
11:59Transnistria then responds that, technically,
12:02since Russia doesn’t recognize its independence,
the bill should rightfully be sent to Moldova,
12:08and finally Moscow shrugs its
shoulders, looking the other way.
12:13Playing along with this charade
accomplishes several things for the Kremlin.
12:19First, most obviously, it ensures the continued
survival and support of its client state.
12:27Free energy, it’s learned, makes for an
exceptionally loyal ally. Transnistria’s
12:33Tirotex is one of Europe’s largest
and most profitable textile companies,
12:38thanks in large part to these unpaid bills.
12:41Likewise, Transnistria’s population
is unusually old. By some estimates,
12:47there are more pensioners than workers
— and the Kremlin helps pick up the tab.
12:53Secondly, it serves a propaganda function.
Moscow’s goal is to show Eastern Europe,
12:59and Moldova in particular, how lucrative
it can be to stay within Russia’s orbit.
13:05Finally, and most importantly, Russia
uses Transnistria as a bargaining chip.
13:11By implying that Moldova might be
responsible for the enormous gas bill,
13:16it puts pressure on its government to
resolve the conflict. At the same time,
13:21by not recognizing Transnistria’s
independence, it communicates its
13:25“open-mindedness,” its willingness to
trade the territory for concessions.
13:31Putin refuses to absorb Transnistria — despite
its pleading — because it’s more useful to him
13:37as a pawn in a larger chess game. He hopes to
one day negotiate Transnistria’s unification
13:43with Moldova, but only on his terms. Ideally,
Transnistria would retain much of its autonomy,
13:51giving Russia a vehicle through which to
influence Moldova (and Europe more broadly).
13:57In the meantime, by “holding”
Transnistria hostage, Moscow
14:01can prevent — or at least delay
— Moldova from joining the EU.
14:06Unfortunately for Moldova, Putin has
proved himself extraordinarily patient
14:11when it comes to Transnistria, waiting now three
decades for the optimal conditions to arise.
14:18Breaking free of this stalemate
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