Victorian Liberals Face Challenge in Upcoming By-Election

By Casey Briggs

Topic: By-Elections

The seat of Nepean on Victoria's Mornington Peninsula will soon vote in a by-election.

In seven months, a 12-year-old state Labor government faces voters in Victoria.

Labor's support has decreased significantly over the past few years and the party is campaigning for a fourth term.

In a normal political world, the Liberal Party would be in a strong position to form government.

This weekend's by-election in Nepean would be a warm-up for the general election.

With no Labor candidate, it should be an easy win for the Liberals.

But the current political world is not normal.

The Victorian Liberal Party is at war with itself and the federal Coalition is in crisis.

The circumstances of former MP Sam Groth's exit and the preselection of Anthony Marsh don't help.

Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh speaks to voters.

Challengers are targeting different parts of the Liberals' base.

Nepean covers wealthy bayside communities where the Liberals won over two-thirds of the vote in 2022.

The seat also takes in areas with lower incomes where Labor was more competitive.

The Liberals are favorites to win, but challengers can make inroads.

One Nation candidate Darren Hercus is a challenger.

One Nation candidate Darren Hercus on the hustings.

One Nation is attracting significant support in new parts of the country.

Voters will choose who replaces former MP Sam Groth.

Nepean is the oldest electorate in Victoria with a median age of 53.

Every election tells us more about who is backing One Nation.

The Liberals are also defending the seat against an independent, Tracee Hutchison.

Hutchison is trying to build on the performance of another independent, Ben Smith.

Smith won most of the Flinders polling places inside Nepean.

Independents often take a long time to gather momentum.

Both Hutchison and One Nation are targeting different parts of the Liberal Party's supporters.

Neither ran in the 2022 election, so it's difficult to gauge their prospects.

Tracee Hutchison is backed by the Independents of Mornington Peninsula group.

A May curtain-raiser before November's grand final

The by-election is happening close to a general election.

Polling suggests the Coalition is competitive statewide.

The opposition is a long way from being able to control parliament.

To win a majority, Jess Wilson needs to flip 16 seats.

The Liberals need to gain seats with margins of 7.5 percentage points or more.

Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson.

Every Labor seat the Liberals fail to win raises the chances of needing Hanson's party.

A respectable performance for One Nation would suggest they are hunting the same seats.

The Liberals have much more to lose this Saturday than their challengers.

Wilson's party can't afford to lose Nepean.

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