Oil prices rise as US and Iran tensions grow, ASX falls with housing market slowdown

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Topic:Stock Market

Increased hostilities between the US and Iran have led to a 3 per cent surge in the oil price, while the Australian share market has slipped.

House prices are falling in most capital cities and building approval data is set to show a continued shortfall of homes.

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Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

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By Yiying Li

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By Yiying Li

Online fashion retailer Shein's shares tumbled about 10% in early Hong Kong trading on Tuesday as the company made its long-awaited debut, capping a years-long effort to go public.

The stock began trading at $HK48.56 ($8.63) each, in line with the final price set in the initial public offering that raised $US1.7 billion ($2.37 billion) and valued Shein at $US26.5 billion.

The shares then fell to $HK43.8 each.

On its debut, Shein is valued well below its 2022 peak of nearly $US100 billion.

Demand for Shein's stock during the IPO was tepid compared to other high-profile deals in the past year.

The retail tranche was subscribed 5.63 times, while the international portion was subscribed 2.59 times, Shein said in a stock exchange filing on Monday.

Some deals have been hundreds of times oversubscribed, especially from Hong Kong's army of retail investors who track IPOs very closely.

"Never been bullish on this IPO," Dickie Wong, executive director of research at uSMART Securities in Hong Kong.

"Revenue's not growing, and a lot of the money raised is basically going back to the earlier investors.

"Grey market already dropped below the offering price, cornerstone lock-up doesn't really help."

The amount sold in the IPO represents about 6.6% of Shein's enlarged share capital. Cornerstone investors took about one-fifth of the IPO and are locked up for six months, leaving roughly 5% freely tradeable.

Known globally for selling $US5 tops and $US10 dresses, Shein has been humbled by tariff and duty changes in the US and Europe that undermine the foundations of its business.

Intense scrutiny of its business practices in the West also hampered its attempts to list in New York and London, and these attempts were ultimately blocked by Chinese authorities.

"The valuation reset reflects more than just slower growth," said Jianggan Li, CEO of consultancy Momentum Works, adding that investors now regard Shein as exposed to tariffs, other regulatory risks and competition.

Shein's net income slid 39% last year, and it swung to a loss in the first quarter.

Shein said it expected first-half operating profit margin to be slightly lower than in the first quarter, hurt by higher customs duties, tariffs, fees and logistics costs in Europe and the Middle East.

Reporting with Reuters

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By Yiying Li

Now, let's take a look at the top and bottom movers.

The best-performing stocks were by far

And, the worst-performing stocks were

By Yiying Li

US President Donald Trump announced a new round of drug-pricing agreements with international pharmaceutical companies and some smaller biotechs, including CSL, on Monday, part of a push to make healthcare more affordable for Americans.

These companies have offered drugs to state Medicaid programs at most-favoured-nation prices, President Trump said, describing this as "a tremendous discount, which should bring down the cost of your medical care by tremendous amounts".

It is not clear how many drugs the deals cover or at what discounts, leaving the savings for the government or patients unknown.

The White House did not release details of the agreements and companies in separate press releases described some terms as private.

The administration and some of the companies said there would also be future savings from innovative drugs, and agreements to manufacture more products in the US.

The shares of CSL were up 1.2%, trading at $173.56 per share as of 11:45am AEST.

Reporting with Reuters

By Yiying Li

Oil prices gained on Tuesday as the resumption of fighting between the US and Iran in the Middle East renewed fears of supply disruptions from the world's key crude-producing region.

Brent crude futures were up 0.6%, to $US91.05 a barrel at 10:44 AEST, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 1%, to $US86.59.

In the previous session, Brent closed up 2.7%, at one point reaching its highest since August 25, and WTI settled up 2.8%, touching its highest since August 21.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran following the first exchange of direct attacks between the countries in a month on Sunday, raising tensions in a conflict that had recently shifted into an economic standoff.

"These bring the potential for Iranian retaliation back into the equation," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM.

"That in turn raises the prospect of damage to energy infrastructure around the Gulf and adds fresh uncertainty for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Both of those risks are being reflected in the firmer tone in crude prices."

Over the weekend, the number of visible commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz dropped to five per day, according to shipping data from Kpler.

Reporting with Reuters

By Daniel Ziffer

Did you miss Alan Kohler’s / David Chau’s finance report last night? Don’t stress, we’ve got you. The numbers refer to yesterday’s data, so catch up on where we’ve been, to get a steer on where you’re going today.

By Daniel Ziffer

OK, so the national average price of a litre of unleaded petrol is up 3.2 cents to 204.8 cents in the week to Sunday..

But what you really want to know is what it’s like where you live?

And thanks to the dedicated boffins at the Australian Institute of Petroleum, here’s that very data.

By Daniel Ziffer

A fantastic, detailed investigation of what is a growing problem.

An ABC investigation has discovered gift cards that have been tampered with are being sold by Australia's biggest supermarkets, with charges even being laid over the issue.

It is leaving shoppers confused and stressed, and raising questions about whether this is linked to a multi-billion-dollar criminal scam.

The ABC has inspected customers' receipts, gift card photos, and correspondence with companies like Coles, Apple and Australia's gift card distributors.

Of the 19 reports of strange gift cards the ABC documented, many were on Apple cards that can be redeemed for the tech giant's electronics.

Apple declined our request for an interview but did defend its packaging, which it changed early last year.

Coles says "gift card tampering and fraud is an evolving challenge affecting retailers and customers both in Australia and internationally, and Coles takes the issue extremely seriously."

While Woolworth said, "tampering affects a small proportion of our gift cards and is a shared problem across the retail industry."

ABC News can reveal that last year, Coles worked with police to bust a member of an alleged criminal syndicate that was tampering with gift cards in supermarkets in New South Wales.

Court documents show a man was arrested for placing Apple Gift cards that had been tampered with on the shelves of at least five different Coles stores in Sydney. It is unclear how much further this crime has spread, or if any authority is collecting wider information.

The Australian Federal Police and the money laundering organisation AUSTRAC both said gift card fraud is not their domain, while the authority that handles complaints about financial products has limited scope over gift cards.

Australian private investigator Ken Gamble took a look at the ABC's investigation. He said the reports of tampering occurring mostly around capital cities indicated it could be organised crime.

In the United States, the US Department of Homeland Security has a taskforce specifically dedicated to investigating gift card fraud.

Project Red Hook was set up in 2024 because there were such widespread reports of tampering. Adam Parks said in the industry, it's dubbed 'card draining'.

He said the investigation had uncovered links to money laundering in China, human trafficking and even murder.

You can watch the report here.

By Daniel Ziffer

A top read from Alan Kohler about the rose-coloured glasses worn by the business lobby and some inconvenient truths about how things work in our modern world.

It's all off a dinner hosted by the Business Council of Australia (which we reported on at the time).

"The period when everyone present agreed that Australia's productivity was great and reform was happening was not when government and business were working together, but when government and labour were working together.

"That was the 80s and early 90s, when productivity grew more than 2 per cent a year versus the current decade average of 0.3 per cent, and minus 0.7 per cent in the 2024-25 financial year."

You can read the full piece at this link.

By Daniel Ziffer

After four consecutive weekly gains, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index fell 2.6 points to 74.9 points last week.

Why?

The decline was broad-based but was led by decreasing confidence in future economic conditions.

In a release, bank economist Sophia Angala notes this may have reflected last week's stronger-than-expected July CPI release. Although weekly inflation expectations were unchanged last week, the series has trended higher in recent weeks.

She added this:

"Given persistent inflation and the resilience in household spending, we now expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% in November. Against a backdrop of weak consumer confidence, a November rate hike is expected to weigh further on consumer spending over the near term."

By Daniel Ziffer

The flagship ASX 200 index has opened lower.

It is down -0.5% or 42 points to be 9,032 points.

More to come.

By Daniel Ziffer

In the past few years, Australia's consumer protection sector got a massive boost. It's the ability for substantial organisations to make what is called a designated complaint.

It's essentially a 'super complaint' that harnesses hundreds of small issues in a similiar way to a class action. Here the result of one brought by consumer organisation CHOICE.

The ACCC says stronger product safety rules are needed, including for online marketplaces.

In June CHOICE submitted a designated complaint to the ACCC raising concerns that unsafe, banned, prohibited and dangerous goods are reaching Australian consumers through online marketplaces, at scale.

Why? Because the current product safety regime contains gaps, in particular in relation to online marketplaces which act as intermediaries between sellers and buyers.

The complaint also noted that Australia does not have a general law that prevents the sale of unsafe products.

The ACCC’s response to the designated complaint was published today and I've summarised it here.

Reforms are needed to close gaps in Australia’s product safety framework to prevent unsafe goods from reaching and harming Australian consumers, with online marketplaces a particular concern, the ACCC says.

The ACCC agrees that the existing Australian Consumer Law has limitations regarding online marketplaces, which is leading to harm to consumers including children.

The Federal Government has announced that Treasury will lead work to strengthen the product safety framework, including by improving mandatory injury reporting, strengthening penalties, and ensuring online marketplaces are subject to mandatory obligations.

Here's ACCC Commissioner Luke Woodward:

“Australian consumers should be able to trust that products they purchase are safe, including when they buy goods online. We currently face challenges where sellers are based overseas or the online marketplace is not the direct supplier, making it difficult to prevent unsafe products sold through online marketplaces from reaching consumers".

“We believe that many of the issues raised in the designated complaint are best addressed through regulatory reforms, including through clear obligations on online marketplaces.”

“We also support exploring options for new general safety protections relating to the safety of all consumer goods to further strengthen the product safety framework”.

In July 2026, Consumer Affairs ministers identified holistic review of the product safety framework and laws, including general safety protections, as a priority area for reform. These reforms can support earlier intervention and give regulators effective tools to hold relevant market participants accountable.

“While we agree there are gaps in current product safety laws, we will continue to use our full suite of compliance and enforcement tools to act against suppliers of unsafe goods, including Federal Court enforcement action where appropriate.”

By Daniel Ziffer

Isn't a softening of house prices exactly what most of us wanted so that FHB could finally get into the market? People shouldn't take having a house as a 'given' to it increasing in value by 100's of thousands in 2 years - that's just not normal. All investments have risk, so those investing in houses (opposed to OO) should understand that. 'Buyer activity particularly low' - we also can't expect all these poor FHB to all of a sudden just have ready their deposit - lets face it house prices are still quite high so the deposit needed is still decent. Some people who weren't saving for a deposit because they thought they would never get a house might now see a glimmer of hope and so potentially are only starting to save now.

- Kristi

First-home buyers (FHB) are a key part of the housing market, because buying a property is a mega-outlay that many people do once or never in their lifetimes.

Reader Kristi thinks the current house price slump could be in part because tax changes have meant more people are thinking of getting into the housing market, but need time to get the cash together.

By Daniel Ziffer

The market kicks off in 20 minutes, at 10am on the east coast.

But there's three companies you won't be able to trade in, they've requested a 'trading halt'.

Lindian Resources wants it because it is "pending strategic partnership and offtake agreement announcement".

Cosmo Metals makes the request for a proposed capital raising announcement

Synertec Corporation has a material customer contract to announce.

Let's assume that's 'material' meaning big/important, rather than just who they go with for office paper supplies.

By Daniel Ziffer

Controversial logistics software provider WiseTech Global has appointed Jeff Howard as its chief financial officer, effective September 28.

Before joining WiseTech, Jeff Howard has been CFO and subsequently managing director and CEO of Seven West Media, before leading the combined group following its merger with Southern Cross Media Group.

Caroline Pham, who has been interim CFO since October 2024, will remain with the company to help support the transition, WiseTech said in its statement.

Mr Howard, said, unsurprisingly, that it was a good time to join the company:

"The global scale of CargoWise, the e2open acquisition, the benefits from WiseTech's rapid adoption of AI, and the growth opportunities set out in the FY26 results presentation together make this an exciting time to join WiseTech"

WiseTech's billionaire co-founder Richard White has been in the news for complex reasons. This article has some of the detail. Since it was published the co-founder is now listed as executive director and chief innovation officer for the company.

By Daniel Ziffer

AUSTRAC has launched an investigation into Western Union Financial Services Australia Pty Ltd and The Western Union Company due to concerns about the company's management of high-risk payment channels, customers and affiliates.

It is not an investigation into affiliates.

AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas said Western Union operated one of the world's largest international payment service providers.

"Western Union provides important services to customers in Australia and around the world who need to move money across borders, including via cash payments.

"Payment service providers are internationally recognised as high-risk for criminal exploitation. We have launched this investigation because we have serious concerns that Western Union has failed to adequately manage those risks."

AML/CTF stands for anti-money laundering/counter-terrorism financing. The laws aim to stop both of those things.

The AML/CTFAct requires businesses that provide international payment services to implement effective programs to identify, manage and mitigate money laundering and terrorism financing risks, and to report suspicious activity to AUSTRAC.

AUSTRAC began the enforcement investigation having considered a range of factors, including data and intelligence holdings, prior regulatory engagements and an external audit of Western Union ordered by AUSTRAC in 2025.

The investigation will focus on Western Union's:

AUSTRAC will ultimately determine what action to take, if any, only once it has completed its investigation.

A 2025 campaign looking at payment providers identified significant weaknesses in how some businesses detected and managed transactions linked to child sexual exploitation.

"The risks facing this sector include terrorism financing, human trafficking, fraud and child sexual exploitation.

"Strong compliance systems and timely suspicious matter reporting are critical to detecting and disrupting criminal activity. That's what AUSTRAC expects from every business operating in this sector."

In a statement, AUSTRAC said it acknowledged that Western Union had committed to addressing issues raised in the audit report.

By Daniel Ziffer

Earlier this year, the industrial umpire killed off the idea that 18, 19 and 20 year olds should be paid less than full adult rates.

The staged changes, which the Fair Work Commission described as "up there with the introduction of equal pay for women in the 1970s", mean young adults working in retail, fast food and pharmacies are set to receive a pay rise.

So expect the murmurings on superannuation to only get louder.

Currently, under-18s are excluded from guaranteed super unless they work more than 30 hours a week for one employer.

A push to reform the law is being led federally by the Greens, which introduced an amendment bill into parliament earlier this month.

The party also secured a Senate inquiry on the issue, which will report to parliament in November.

You can read more about it here.

By Daniel Ziffer

Australia will produce 29.9 million metric tons of wheat this year, the government projects, lifting its forecast by a little over 3 million tons following better-than-expected rainfall in many cropping areas.

We are the world's third-biggest wheat exporter, and the extra heft will add supply to a global market that has tightened in recent months, driving prices to their highest level since early 2023.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), part of the agriculture ministry, also in a quarterly crop report raised its forecast for Australia's barley harvest by more than 2 million tons to 16.4 million tons and for canola production by just over 1 million tons to 7.3 million tons.

Australia will still reap around 6 million tons less wheat than last year — in part due to an 11% decrease in the amount of land sown — putting the harvest roughly in line with the average of the last 10 seasons, ABARES said.

Production of barley and canola — which growers preferred to wheat because they promised better margins — will be only slightly lower than last year and around one-third above their 10-year averages.

ABARES said growing conditions were excellent in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales but average in Western Australia and poor in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

The year began much drier and with the threat of fertiliser shortages and a powerful El Niño weather event — something that often limits rainfall.

"Seasonal conditions throughout winter have been much better than expected, boosting production prospects across most major southern cropping regions," ABARES said.

High fertiliser prices had also had a smaller impact than expected, it added.

Four analysts said last week they expected Australia to produce between 30 and 32 million tons of wheat this year, slightly above ABARES' forecast.

Harvesting will begin in October.

But it's not all good news.

ABARES said production of summer crops sorghum, cotton and rice — which are grown in New South Wales and Queensland — would fall by between 22% and 34% in the coming season due to a lack of soil moisture and irrigation water.

- With Reuters

By Daniel Ziffer

"Complex and messy" is how administrators are describing Bathla Group's financial arrangements, as they try to stave off the collapse of the New South Wales major developer with debts totalling more than $3 billion.

While they've warned that the business does not have enough money to survive until the end of this week unless it secures an urgent injection of funding to pay staff, the administrator Teneo is extending a glimmer of hope to home buyers that they will eventually receive their keys.

Teneo's senior managing director Stephen Longley says the strategy involves a two-step funding process. The first round of funding will secure what is needed to complete Bathla's projects. The second round will fund the projects themselves.

The administrator says most of the 45 projects under construction should be completed by February or March next year and add about 2,500 new homes to supply.

However, he says the challenge with completing the projects will be paying the tradies, staff, suppliers and subcontractors, who haven't been paid for up to eight weeks.

"So whilst we might be 90 per cent through a project, it's not going to cost us 10 per cent to complete it, because some of those subcontractors, understandably, won't come back on the site until they're paid on that project. They might not even come back on that site until they've paid all the arrears from all the projects they're working on for Bathla," he said.

As for what the collapse and possible rescue deal could mean for Western Sydney's property market, Mr Longley says Teneo is in discussions with lenders about the need for a coordinated approach to bring properties to market.

"If all of the stock came to the market at the one time, I think that would have a pretty significant impact on property values, not just for Bathla's properties, but properties more broadly," he said.

By Daniel Ziffer

What's happening with oil prices? Plenty. Here are the top lines from overnight:

Oil prices settled more than 2.5% higher after a resumption of military action between the US and Iran rekindled market concerns about global supply disruption, as the conflict extended into its sixth month.

Brent crude futures settled up $2.39, or 2.71%, to $90.49 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $2.36, or 2.83%, to $85.76. Brent rose as high as $91.52 during the session, its highest since August 25.

US President Donald Trump was quoted as promising to "hit them hard" after Iran launched missiles overnight at two US air bases in Jordan in response to an attack on Iran's Larak Island.

"We're going to hit them hard," a Fox News reporter quoted Trump as telling the channel.

There will be a response.

Last week, crude stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by around 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels.

On Sunday, Trump said in a social media post that Iran's energy hub of Kharg Island was being "blown to smithereens," but there was no evidence the island was under attack. The post, which included an AI-generated video, provided no further details. Iran denied the island was being attacked and said oil operations continued there.

On Monday, Vice President JD Vance said Trump was sending a message to Iran with the post.

Mediators are seeking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies passed before the war began in late February. Progress has stalled.

Shipping data showed the number of visible commodity vessels transiting the strait over the weekend fell to five a day.

From there? Gelber & Associates analysts wrote in a note:

"Some Gulf barrels continue moving through the strait, tempering the rally, but the first direct military exchange in a month has forced traders to rebuild a meaningful near-term supply premium."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an interview on Monday that the goal of US sanctions on Iran is "to create the conditions that they will want to come to the table" for negotiations.

Potentially easing supply concerns, Trump said on Sunday that oil secured under a deal with Venezuela would be used to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has fallen to near its lowest level in 44 years.

US companies Chevron and GE Vernova, India's, Italy's Eni and Colombia's GeoPark are on track to sign final agreements in Venezuela after months of negotiations to firm up energy projects in the OPEC country, four sources close to the preparations said.

- with Reuters

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