Who Will Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Rounds?

The article is written by Simon Smale.

The topic is the FIFA World Cup.

The article was published on Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:42am.

The Socceroos have a good chance of qualifying for the next round.

The World Cup group phase is ending, and teams are looking to the knockout phase.

To move on, teams must be ranked and progress to the next round.

Only 16 of the 48 teams will go home after the group phase, and 32 teams will move on to the first knockout round.

A bad performance in the group round is not as risky because 32 teams move on.

Group stage performances are still important because they determine the next round.

Here is a guide to how teams are ranked after the group stage.

The top two teams in each group move on to the next round.

Mexico will move on after topping Group A.

The top two teams in each of the 12 groups will move on.

Topping the group can mean an easier opponent in the next round.

Each team plays three games, and wins are worth three points.

Teams can end the group stage with the same number of points.

When teams are tied, tie breakers are used.

New rules are in effect for the group phase.

Traditionally, goal difference was the main tie breaker.

Now, head-to-head results are used as the first tie breaker.

If two teams are tied, the team that won their match against each other will finish higher.

The Socceroos need to qualify for the next round.

The Socceroos need to do well to move on.

Let's look at the Socceroos's Group D.

The USA is top of the group with six points.

The USA cannot be overtaken in the group even if it loses to Türkiye.

Türkiye cannot qualify because it has been beaten by Paraguay and Australia.

If goal difference were the tie breaker, Türkiye would still have a chance.

The USA vs Türkiye match is not important because the USA has already won the group.

The rule that all final group games kick off at the same time is not as important now.

Two games are played at the same time to prevent teams from knowing how to manipulate the results.

This rule was made after the 1982 World Cup when West Germany and Austria worked together to eliminate Algeria.

The local newspaper printed the match report in the crime section.

Other teams have also worked together to manipulate the results.

Peru lost 6-0 to Argentina in 1978, allowing Argentina to move on.

What are the other tie breakers?

After head-to-head results, goal difference is used.

If the Socceroos and Paraguay draw, the Socceroos will finish second because of their better goal difference.

The Socceroos have a goal difference of 0.

Paraguay has a goal difference of -2.

After goal difference, the team with more goals scored will finish higher.

The Team Conduct Score is used if teams are still tied.

The Team Conduct Score is based on the number of cards a team receives.

If teams are still tied, the team's FIFA ranking is used.

Cabo Verde has a chance to qualify after drawing with Uruguay.

In 1994, four teams finished with the same number of points in Group E.

The teams were split by their goal difference, but it was the same for all four.

The teams were then split by the number of goals they scored.

Ireland finished second because it scored more goals than Italy.

What about the best third-place teams?

The Socceroos could qualify as one of the best third-place teams.

The remaining eight teams are taken from the 12 teams that finish third in their groups.

The third-place teams are ranked by the same formula as the group stage.

The head-to-head factor is not used for the third-place teams.

The group phase tables are used to determine the next round.

The group winners play the group runners-up or the third-place teams.

The Socceroos could play the runner-up of Group G if they finish second.

The other eight group winners play the advancing third-placed teams.

There are many possible pairings for the last-32 fixtures involving third-placed teams.

If the Socceroos finish third and qualify, they could play the winner of Group E, I, or K.

The ABC of SPORT is a daily sports conversation.

The article was published on Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 7:42am and 7:49am.

The topic is the FIFA World Cup and other sports news.

The article is part of the Topic:Explainer series.

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