Victoria Election Sends Important Signals to Canberra

By Michelle Grattan

The Conversation

Topic: State and Territory Elections

The article was published on Fri 7 Aug 2026 at 5:18am

It was updated on Fri 7 Aug 2026 at 9:01am

Ben Carroll's cabinet had its first meeting on Tuesday afternoon.

The Victoria election on November 28 has become very important and dramatic.

A change in premier and the strong polling of One Nation have changed the election.

The national implications of the election have grown.

If the state opposition leader wins, the Liberal Party will gain confidence.

But if One Nation does well, its momentum will continue and the Liberals' crisis will worsen.

The Liberal Party will gain confidence if Jess Wilson wins.

The outcome of the battle between the right-of-centre parties is crucial.

If the Coalition wins but in a minority, it may depend on One Nation for support.

If Labor hangs on, it could claim a miracle.

The election is hard to predict because the government has a big buffer.

The Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission's report was released on Wednesday.

The report painted an ugly picture of the government's conduct.

The eight-year inquiry did not find corruption, but identified serious conduct.

Premier Ben Carroll condemned the behaviour exposed by the report.

Mr Andrews and the head of the United Firefighters Union seized on the fact there was no finding of corruption.

Labor installed Mr Carroll to try to save the party's losses.

Mr Carroll said he is not Daniel Andrews and will bring integrity.

He announced a royal commission into alleged corruption in the construction sector.

Mr Carroll is open to amendments on work-from-home legislation.

Mr Carroll's problem is that he served in the previous governments.

Mr Carroll is performing well compared to his predecessor.

The question is why Labor did not put him in charge earlier.

The answer is factional numbers, with Mr Carroll from the right.

The new state One Nation leader warned of a debunked globalist plot.

Mr Carroll is Labor's third leader since the 2022 election.

Ms Wilson is also her party's third leader this term.

She took over an opposition with dysfunction.

The Liberals finally put to rest the saga over Moira Deeming.

She then quit the party.

The fractured Liberals are holding together, but the glue is thin.

Ms Wilson will have to carry a big load, being shadow treasurer.

She completed a tour of every seat in the state.

Warren Pickering could be a key challenger.

Pauline Hanson announced her Victorian leader and upper house candidates.

But the signs are One Nation's support may be decreasing.

One Nation has dozens of candidates to announce and will face more heat.

A Redbridge poll had the Coalition on 30 per cent, Labor 23 per cent, One Nation 22 per cent.

This gave a two-party preferred vote of Coalition 57 per cent to Labor 43 per cent.

In a previous poll, One Nation had been on 27 per cent, leading Labor and Coalition.

On leadership, Mr Carroll had a net rating of minus 15, Ms Hanson minus 17.

Redbridge's Kos Samaras says the scandals are part of state Labor's problem.

He says voters are still dealing with Victoria's record COVID lockdowns.

The lockdowns didn't take their toll at the 2022 election, but now they are playing into the election.

Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra.

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