Senator Jonno Duniam, the Shadow Home Affairs Minister, told ABC’s Insiders that the party has not modelled the exact impact of the 80 per cent cut on smoking rates, but it has looked at similar overseas examples.

Canada provides a recent overseas example. After a surge in organised‑crime activity, federal and provincial governments in Canada slashed tobacco taxes in 1994. The cuts caused a sharp rise in smoking, especially among young people.

Despite the initial spike, Canada’s smoking prevalence eventually fell to about 11 per cent. Senator Duniam said the decline happened as the illicit tobacco trade receded and policy settings continued to tighten over time.

Critics note that Canada later restored its pre‑1994 tax levels, arguing the temporary cut did not offer a permanent solution. They point to a resurgence of the black market, higher youth smoking rates during the interim, and lost tax revenue.

In Australia today, about half of all tobacco sales are estimated to come from the black market. This illegal trade fuels organised crime, contributes to violence in cities such as Sydney and Melbourne, and cuts into federal revenue.

An 80 per cent excise cut would shave roughly $25 off the price of a 20‑cigarette pack. If retailers pass the full reduction on to consumers, a pack could cost between $16 and $26, far cheaper than current legal prices.

The Canadian experience shows that large tax cuts can trigger a short‑term surge in smoking and illicit trade before rates eventually fall. Australia’s proposed cut may therefore bring similar risks, even as officials argue it could undercut the black market.