Heavy Rain, Not Heat, Poses Biggest Threat to Chocolate’s Cocoa Crop

Anna Lea Albright, an environmental fellow at Harvard University, led a peer‑reviewed study that found heavy rainfall to be the most serious weather risk for cocoa, outweighing the effects of heat and drought.

Albright explained that extreme rain during the flowering stage can slash yields. Too much water damages delicate flowers and young pods, and it also spreads fungal diseases such as black pod disease.

The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, compared district‑level Ghana cocoa production data with rainfall and temperature records. It shows that the heaviest rain events are becoming more intense because warmer air holds more moisture.

Cocoa prices reflected the danger. In 2024 the price per tonne jumped to over $12,000, a spike linked in part to severe flooding in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa‑growing region.

Farmers and experts are already proposing solutions. Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa, and environmental governance expert Sophia Carodenuto (associate professor at the University of Victoria) suggest using fungicide, improving field drainage, and investing in infrastructure to lessen rain‑related damage.

If extreme rainfall continues to rise, chocolate lovers may face higher prices and fewer supply options. Mitigating the rain threat is now a priority for growers who want to keep cocoa farms viable.

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