Why the Fraser River sockeye salmon run is so low this year

The Fraser River sockeye salmon run this season has collapsed to just over three million fish, far below the forecast of 7.7 million.

"The forecast for this year was 7.7 million but we're now sitting at a run size of just over three million," said Fiona Martens, director of the Pacific Salmon Commission, describing what she called the lowest dominant cycle in recent memory.

Because of the shortfall, Fisheries and Oceans Canada has shut down the commercial Fraser River sockeye fishery, while still permitting limited fishing for First Nations food, social and ceremonial purposes.

"We live in a rainforest and we're dealing with drought," said Mike Baird, fisheries coordinator for the Tsawwassen First Nation, adding that unseasonably hot weather and forest fires have also harmed the salmon. He also warned that an overpopulation of seals and sea lions may be eating more fish than usual.

Scientists say the weak return is linked to several environmental pressures: unusually high river water temperatures, a low snowpack that reduces cool runoff, and broader ocean conditions that affect salmon survival at sea. Some experts also point to the growing numbers of marine predators such as seals and sea lions.

The reduced run hurts local fishers and communities that rely on the salmon for income and cultural practices, highlighting how climate and ecosystem changes can quickly impact a region’s livelihood.

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