New Indigenous Population Estimates Reveal Scale of Colonial Loss and Its Role in Truth‑telling

The research team, drawing on computer modelling, ethnographic records, archaeological finds and genetic reconstructions, calculated a median pre‑colonial Indigenous population of 2.22 million, a figure that dwarfs earlier estimates of 250,000 to 1 million.

The same analysis estimates that about 2.06 million Indigenous Australians died from disease, massacres and the hardships of displacement after 1788. Only roughly seven per cent of the original population survived the first seven decades of colonisation.

University of Technology Sydney professor and Eualayai/Gamillaroi woman Larissa Behrendt said, “These research findings challenge us to rethink the scale of what happened after 1788.” Flinders University global ecology professor Corey Bradshaw added, “Removing 93 per cent of the (Indigenous) population in 70 years, it can’t be interpreted in any other way but disastrous.”

The new numbers matter because they give a more accurate baseline for truth‑telling and reconciliation. Understanding the true magnitude of loss helps Australians acknowledge the depth of historical injustice and supports efforts to address its lasting impacts.

Today, Indigenous Australians make up about 37 percent of the estimated pre‑colonial population. If current growth trends continue, researchers say parity with the pre‑colonial population will not be reached until 2047.

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