Orange wave in WA Labor area shocks nation

By-Elections

Almost no matter the result in the Labor heartland of Secret Harbour, in Perth's south, One Nation was going to be able to claim the result of yesterday's by-election as a win.

So much so the party began at their election-night event within 15 minutes of polls closing, before a single vote had been reported.

By the time early results started trickling through, the room was electric. The DJ was straight to his victory playlist.

One Nation supporters were celebrating.

Queen's We Are The Champions, followed by Tina Turner's The Best, had an already amped-up crowd turned up to 11.

It's a bit early for this, one attendee said.

At that stage, it was far too early to call the seat. But for the party to have received more than a third of the primary vote would have been victory enough regardless of the final outcome.

Within a few hours though, it was clear Labor heartland had turned orange, with One Nation's Luke Herdegen prevailing.

Orange tsunami hits

The win will be seen as a big boost to the minor party, making the point it can threaten not just Liberal seats but Labor ones too.

Next Saturday's Secret Harbour by-election will be the first clear test of whether One Nation's popularity on the east coast extends across the Nullarbor.

Working-class families frustrated with cost-of-living and housing pressures, and feeling ignored by governments, would no longer automatically switch from Labor to Liberal.

The people of Secret Harbour have sent a message, a message that will send shock waves across the entire country, One Nation's first lower house MP in WA, Luke Herdegen, told his supporters.

None of these MPs are safe from the orange tsunami.

The party's WA leader, Rod Caddies, said it proved One Nation offered a genuine alternative to Labor and the Liberals and that the two-party system was dead.

By-election may not translate

Secret Harbour fast facts:

Tempering the win is the fact by-elections — especially ones that don't change who is in government — can produce strange results that don't necessarily translate to general elections.

Voters can, for example, be much more concerned about specific local issues (how often red bins are collected, in this case) than they otherwise might.

Labor had also committed to following through on all of its campaign promises regardless of who won the seat, which may have also made people more comfortable trying something new with their vote.

It means the result won't necessarily translate directly to upcoming elections in Victoria and New South Wales, where One Nation is expected to play a big part.

Western Australians are doing it tough

One clear lesson for Labor though is that resources alone cannot overcome genuine community frustration.

A senior party figure said the Secret Harbour campaign had cost somewhere around $400,000 to run.

WA Premier Roger Cook said on Saturday his party had knocked on 19,000 doors, had 8,000 conversations with voters, sent 210,000 pieces of mail and put out about 1,000 signs.

Roger Cook has acknowledged that Western Australians are doing it tough. (ABC News: Courtney Withers)

Even combined with a massive social media campaign designed to dissuade voters from trying their chances with One Nation, it wasn't enough for them to win.

This campaign has been a reminder that Western Australians are doing it tough, Cook told Labor supporters.

My team will continue to get out and talk to our communities, listen to their issues and concerns and do everything within our power to make their lives better.

We will double down.

Labor campaign dogged by missteps

The party also made some uncharacteristic missteps after honing its campaign skills over the last three state elections in particular.

Ms Tree was blocked from speaking at two press conferences. (ABC News: Courtney Withers)

Labor candidate Georgia Tree was blocked from speaking at two press conferences in a row. Each was justified with innocent explanations, but it created an opportunity for her opponents to cast her as the stereotype of a Labor MP: a silent cog in a much bigger machine.

Here's everything you need to know about the Secret Harbour by-election, which is shaping up as one of the most closely-watched political contests in WA for some time.

Not living in the electorate also became a bigger issue than Labor would have liked, despite being an entirely predictable issue.

Herdegen only moved to WA three years ago and compared to Tree, who grew up in the area, could have been argued to have less connection to the electorate. Yet that point was hardly made.

In an election that was always going to be close, they were miscalculations the party could have done without.

One potential blessing is that the party has now had experience fighting directly against One Nation and can apply those lessons to future campaigns.

Liberals an also-ran

As for the third horse in this race, the Liberals will no doubt argue for some time about what the lesson is from this campaign.

One Nation's breakthrough poses questions for the Liberals and their leader Basil Zempilas. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)

They were always unlikely to win the seat, which makes it harder to decide what a good result is meant to look like.

What is certain is that it will have done little to improve the chances of the federal Liberal MP whose seat takes in Secret Harbour, Andrew Hastie.

Here's everything you need to know about the Secret Harbour by-election, which is shaping up as one of the most closely-watched political contests in WA for some time.

This by-election has given One Nation its strongest localised foothold in WA in a key part of his electorate.

Although One Nation leader Pauline Hanson appeared to play down the idea she was targeting Hastie specifically, there's no secret it is a seat they would like and is now easier to get.

And while Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas has argued any anti-Labor sentiment is a win for his party, that's only true if the Liberals can seize it as an opportunity to lure voters into their camp.

Crucial tests loom for One Nation

As One Nation continues to embed itself as a major part of the political landscape, each encounter will shed more light on how voters feel about the party and what responses from the legacy parties are effective.

Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals will no doubt dissect this contest to learn their own lessons about how to convince frustrated voters they really have the answers this time around.

Ms Tree's campaign had come under criticism. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)

Cook has also already framed the result as a rally cry for future contests.

Soak up the atmosphere of a team that is potentially facing disappointment, he told his party faithful.

Paul Papalia's resignation for family reasons sparks a by-election in the WA minister and Labor stalwart's southern Perth seat at a time when disgruntled voters are increasingly turning to One Nation.

Seize those emotions and build on them. Let [it] galvanise us for the fight of the future.

One Nation will be urging its supporters to do the same: hold on to that winning feeling for future contests.

Its test will be whether it can hold onto that momentum and apply the lessons from this campaign in other seats around WA, and the rest of the country.

That won't be helped by controversies about former candidates or its own policies.

But it will decide whether the party's celebrations about its orange tsunami are too early, or really are the start of something much bigger.

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