A typical commercial truck burns hundreds of litres of diesel each week, making fuel one of the biggest line items in a trucking company's budget; margins have already been squeezed since the price surge that followed the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine conflict.

Tej Dulat, director of government and public affairs for the Canadian Truck Operators Association, warned that "companies will have to pass that cost to the consumers" and that shoppers should expect an impact on grocery prices.

Compounding the problem, the Irving Refinery in New Brunswick – the country’s largest – remains offline for maintenance until November, further tightening the diesel supply chain.

The federal government has extended the temporary suspension of the diesel excise tax, a four‑cent‑per‑litre rebate, through January 2027, but analysts say the relief is insufficient to neutralise the full price increase.

Higher diesel raises the cost of moving food from farms to stores, and because transport expenses are a key component of food pricing, the usual lag between fuel spikes and supermarket shelves may shrink this time around.

In short, as diesel prices stay elevated, Canadian consumers are likely to see grocery bills climb in the coming months.