One Nation challenges the establishment

Topic: One Nation

Pauline Hanson says she can beat Labor and many people seem to agree with her message.

If you have ever played with dominoes, you know that once the first piece falls, the rest tumble quickly and powerfully.

The so‑called “orange tsunami” – One Nation’s rapid rise across the country – feels like that domino effect.

Once seen as a threat only to the Coalition, this weekend One Nation showed it can also take seats from Labor.

The damage will not just move votes on the right‑hand side; it also threatens the traditional blue and red parties.

The Albanese government has noted the loss at Secret Harbour – if this energy continues into the next federal election, the political wave is real and must be faced.

Taking the fight to Albo

One Nation won the Secret Harbour state by‑election in Perth’s south, giving gym owner Luke Herdegen the party’s first seat in Western Australia’s lower house – a big event.

Labor’s hold in the west is weakening. Even after the prime minister’s visit to WA – called “WA’s daddy” for supporting a large GST rebate – the backlash still hurt Labor.

Even after One Nation’s confusing message on overseas migration, the party still won Secret Harbour.

Voters ignored the noise, chose One Nation, and their many contradictions mattered little. They wanted to challenge the establishment.

Pauline Hanson spent Saturday night in the small western Victorian town of Marnoo with Barnaby Joyce and Farmers Fightback chair Ben Duxson.

Pauline Hanson is at the peak of her political rise and shows she will not follow the usual rules.

Most leaders spend by‑election evenings at a local RSL, bowls or footy club, giving two speeches – one celebrating the win as proof of their view.

The second speech is softer, thanks voters and reminds them their wishes must be respected.

A speech often adds lessons learned from losses, thanks the candidate and leaves the venue quickly.

When One Nation finally attacked Labor, Hanson was not thanking volunteers; she was hammering a nail into a coffin marked “net zero”.

She later posted that Labor losing Secret Harbour proved there is “no safe seat in Australia”.

She claimed One Nation took a seat the Liberals have never been able to challenge from Labor.

“We are the only party that can take the fight to Anthony Albanese where the Liberal Party never could,” she said.

“We’re not splitting the conservative vote. We’re taking on the political establishment.”

Hanson now says she can smash Labor and, because people are angry, her message may be working.

When One Nation lifts its primary vote by more than 30 points in a Liberal area, saying this is only Labor’s problem is too hopeful.

Liberal MP Ben Small called the result “kicking Labor in the teeth”.

He said voters used the by‑election to judge the Cook government, but when asked about Andrew Hastie he shifted to talk about Resources Minister Madeleine King, whose area also covers Secret Harbour.

He repeated that Labor’s primary vote fell about three times more than the Liberal vote.

Labor’s primary vote fell almost three times as far, but the Liberals still dropped to third place.

A primary vote of 17.3% will not help Angus Taylor campaign in WA next federal election.

The result should also shock Victorian Labor.

Victorian Labor in trouble

Secret Harbour is the exact seat Labor should worry about – it has many young families, mortgage owners and people with trade qualifications rather than university degrees.

The population has grown, but local services and infrastructure have struggled to keep up.

Redbridge’s Kos Samaras says the result should worry Labor in Perth’s outer suburbs.

He says it should worry Victorian Labor more because similar Melbourne seats could follow the same pattern.

Samaras says the profile matters: Secret Harbour is outer urban but not very diverse, ranking fourth in WA for residents of British or Australian ancestry.

Just under 30% of residents were born overseas, below the state average, mainly from England, New Zealand and South Africa; English ancestry is 49.5% versus 37.6% statewide, while Chinese and Indian ancestry are each under 1%.

Secret Harbour is a “mortgage‑belt” seat of young working families, more trade qualifications than degrees, and average incomes despite high work participation, he says.

“That is the seat One Nation just took from a popular third‑term government … given the current mood towards Labor in Victoria, we can almost safely call them lost.”

The ABC’s politics podcast, Politics Now, explores big stories and gives a balanced look at the strategies behind the headlines.

The implications for Hastie are also big and complex. Secret Harbour lies largely inside his federal seat of Canning, which One Nation is openly targeting.

Money and organisers are already being moved into what will become an ideological battle over more than just shade cloth.

Hastie is a strong local campaigner and kept Canning with a 6.6% margin last year.

But when One Nation lifts its primary vote by more than 30 points in his backyard, saying this is only Labor’s problem is too optimistic.

Patricia Karvelas hosts ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4 pm weekdays, co‑hosts the Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and hosts the politics and news podcast Politics Now.

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