How War Abroad Affects Australia's Prices

Is this affecting your daily budget? What could happen next? ABC News is looking into it.

When the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, many people thought prices would rise fast.

Some people were worried about a big oil shock like in the 1970s, with high inflation and fewer jobs.

In Australia, milk prices were among the first to rise due to the oil shock.

In April, the two biggest supermarkets raised the price of their milk by up to 12 percent.

They said this was because of many problems caused by the oil shock that started affecting supply chains in March.

One obvious problem is higher fuel prices.

Higher fuel prices made it more expensive to transport milk and also affected farmers with higher diesel costs.

Dairy farmers also faced higher fertilizer costs, which is another product affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Then there's plastic, which comes from oil and is used in milk bottles.

The rise in milk prices is the kind of broader impact economists are watching closely.

An economist said the oil price shock can affect the price of many things, including food, travel, and production.

Four months later, despite lower fuel prices, supermarkets haven't lowered milk prices.

A supermarket said fuel, freight, and other costs in the dairy supply chain remain high.

The latest inflation data clearly shows this impact.

Milk prices have risen by 6.17 percent since February, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

An analyst said this is directly related to higher prices paid to farmers.

What other products could become more expensive due to the oil shock?

Bread is usually wrapped in plastic.

So are other breakfast items like bacon and cheese.

However, the inflation data shows smaller price increases for these products, with 1 percent for bread and 2.2 percent for cheese.

Other items like eggs and breakfast cereal have actually fallen in price.

Analysts say the shock to your shopping budget might still be coming.

Milk and fresh produce prices usually respond quickly to market changes because farmers often negotiate prices with supermarkets.

Manufacturers of packaged goods typically have longer-term pricing agreements with grocery stores.

During tough economic times, brands and retailers might absorb higher costs themselves.

An analyst said companies are slowly passing on higher costs to consumers.

We're just seeing the early stages of this.

It's not just food prices that have been in the spotlight during the global oil shock.

There have been headlines about potential price shocks for items like lipstick and condoms, which are often packaged in plastic.

Toothpaste, shampoo, and moisturizer are also affected.

Currently, inflation data doesn't show price spikes for personal care products, with prices actually down by 0.7 percent since February.

A local company that makes containers for grooming brands has been passing higher costs to its customers.

The amount passed on has changed during the oil shock as resin pricing fluctuates on global markets.

The company's owner said the future is uncertain.

Manufacturers also say the global oil shock affects what's inside some everyday bathroom items.

What do moisturizers, hair masks, lip balms, and eyelash serum have in common that's linked to the oil shock?

Petroleum jelly.

A manufacturer said the cost of this oil-derived ingredient rose almost 18 percent in four months.

The manufacturer is still experiencing price shocks.

Disposable nappies are made from a lot of plastic and manufacturers are feeling the pressure.

However, supermarkets say their home brand prices haven't gone up recently, and one store even lowered its price.

An economist believes businesses might be absorbing higher costs for now.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a shock to energy prices.

These shocks take a long time to affect the economy and impact different parts differently.

What about the clothes you wear every day?

Many things in your daily life are connected to oil markets.

Polyester is a common fabric in garment manufacturing and is derived from crude oil.

There's a commodity benchmark for polyester prices on Chinese markets.

However, polyester prices haven't surged like oil prices.

An expert said you can see this in the numbers this year.

Brent oil prices rose from about $62 a barrel in December to a peak near $104 in May before falling back.

Polyester staple futures moved much less than oil prices.

As a result, your fashion fix is 4.2 percent less expensive since February, according to inflation data.

The head of Australia's central bank said the current economy is different from the 1970s.

This explains why the recent oil price shock has had a limited impact on activity.

However, inflation is still a problem in 2026.

Global factors like the war in Russia/Ukraine and climate change are affecting supply chains.

These factors could add to price shocks from the oil crisis, making your daily coffee more expensive.

The central bank talks to companies about their pricing strategies.

More firms are looking to pass on these costs.

Headline inflation remained above target at 4 percent in May.

Inflation is now at 3.8 percent for the year to June, after a drop in fuel prices.

An economist said the June data reduces concerns about a broader inflationary shock from the oil crisis.

It's better than expected given the oil price shock.

However, this data looks back, and a different trend is happening now.

You might have noticed that fuel prices are higher than they've been in months.

The price of fuel hasn't been this high since April, after the government halved the fuel tax.

The government restored half of the tax cut in July and will remove the concession entirely on August 2.

The government won't extend relief at the fuel pump further.

The fuel excise relief will end soon.

It has helped reduce the sting of cost-of-living pressures.

With the fuel excise ending, an economist said higher fuel prices might feed into higher prices across many supply chains.

This has happened across 2026.

It's not just about driving your own car.

Ridesharing companies Uber and Didi increased fares at the start of the oil shock.

Like with milk, both companies have confirmed prices haven't dropped back down.

A spokesperson said fuel prices have eased but driving remains more expensive than a few years ago.

That's why they've extended a fuel surcharge to support rideshare drivers.

Once prices go up, it's uncommon for companies to lower them again.

Economists note that you can get slowing inflation, but prices rarely go back down.

Credits: Reporting by Emilia Terzon and Ahmed Yussuf.

Editing by Emily Stewart.

Commissioning editor: Danielle Cronin.

Illustrations: Sharon Gordon.