Wildcard worries: Why the Crows are on a tightrope

analysis

By Aaron Bryans

Topic:AFL

Will Crows make it through the wildcard round? (AAP: Matt Turner)

The weight of expectation can be a relentless burden.

For a success starved fanbase it can fuel volatility and in a two-team town it's a pressure cooker.

On the eve of finals, the Adelaide Crows find themselves walking a wildcard tightrope.

If the Lions, Hawks, Demons or Cats fail to lose their final round match-ups, which they are heavily favoured to win, the Crows would have to face Carlton or the Western Bulldogs in a sudden death showdown that 12 months ago didn't even exist.

Since the AFL expanded to 18 sides, a 15-win season guaranteed you a Top 6 finish in 11 of the 13 full length seasons and only twice locked in an away elimination final.

Now even if Adelaide beats GWS on Saturday night, it could still face the precarious possibility of being both the first minor premier in the AFL to exit in straight sets and the first ever side to lose a wildcard final.

It's a situation that will only amplify an emotional fanbase that is losing faith in its game plan and direction; often questioning selection and coaching online after results.

Adelaide's success starved fanbase make their opinions known. (ABC News: Lincoln Rothall)

Adelaide Head of Football Adam Kelly addressed their behaviour a month ago on SA Grandstand stating their performances were being exaggerated.

"Our game certainly stacks up. We've had some terrific wins and some disappointing losses but there are very few teams who don't have that," he said.

Some pundits, including 4x Showdown Medallist Josh Francou, feel anything less than a preliminary final appearance would be a failed season.

"Based on last year and the list they've got, if I'm an Adelaide supporter and I'm not playing in a preliminary final that's a fail to me. You can't win a premiership from a wildcard," he said.

"I still have a lot of question marks over Adelaide. I can't work out what's happening off field with selection and they're the number one pressure team but when sides apply pressure to them they can't handle it."

With a cohesive and suffocating defence, the Adelaide Crows have the tools to put the ghosts of 2017 behind them and reach the top of the AFL mountain.

Meanwhile, others believe a strong season doesn't always lead into another. Premiership winning Crow Rod Jameson foreshadowed this after Adelaide's qualifying final loss to Collingwood last year.

"It doesn't guarantee you'll play finals again next year. If they get a couple of key injuries and drop the odd game, they'll be under enormous pressure," he predicted.

The reality is winning a minor premiership guarantees nothing but a coin flip. Only 54 per cent of winners in the AFL era have gone on to secure a premiership within three years.

Is Nicks the man?

Unfortunately Crows fans are conditioned to a ruthless pursuit of success with Matthew Nicks the first coach in their history to survive three seasons without finals.

In the past, the club has been swift in its desire to bring a fresh voice in when momentum dwindled. Now it's headstrong in its pursuit of culture and firm in its belief Nicks is their man, extending him until the end of 2027 in December.

Matthew Nicks (left) has been Adelaide's coach since 2019. (AAP: Joel Carrett)

Crows president John Olsen told ABC Sport ahead of their Round 13 clash with Geelong that the club was close to breaking its near 30-year drought.

"We are united in the view that we are nearly there," he said.

"We accept we have to take it up another gear with consistency but we're not far off the pace."

"Over my six years at the club I've seen impatient fans … sustained success is what every club wants to achieve. That means you have to be deliberate, focused and disciplined in how you go about attracting talent to the club."

Selection on the ground

Adelaide's underwhelming campaign can be attributed to numerous factors.

Availability of star players was a huge problem in the first half of the season.

Izak Rankine's pre-season hamstring issue and suspension meant the man who is currently the highest ranked player in the league over the last five rounds took eight weeks to be unleashed into the midfield.

Their three-time winning best and fairest winner and skipper Jordan Dawson had to take personal leave after the tragic passing of his brother.

Crows captain Jordan Dawson had to miss several matches this year. (AAP: Joel Carrett)

All-Australian forward Riley Thilthorpe's output has dropped after tweaking his back travelling to Perth whilst Darcy Fogarty's own back issue saw him miss several weeks and key defender Mark Keane's broken ankle left the side without their defensive talisman until Round 15.

Despite the adversities, honourable losses to league heavyweights created optimism that once the troops were back the Crows would rise again.

To a degree they have, winning 8 of 11 games after their bye; but questions remain over their game plan and its ability to take the club to the top of the mountain.

The introduction and reshaping of numerous rules in the off season were designed to encourage free-flowing brands of footy.

Taylor Walker arrived at the Adelaide Football Club as a 75-kilogram prospect who had only ever wanted to be a footballer. More than 300 AFL games and 700 goals later, he will retire as a club great.

Most have adopted that mantra with the ladder leading Fremantle Dockers giving Adelaide a harsh lesson last Friday on ball movement ending with +248 handball metres gained and 64 per cent ball use rating to the Crows 40 per cent.

It's a common theme for Adelaide who are last in the league for handball metres gained and third last for D50 to F50 transition.

It's a style that can open you up to immense pressure leading to high turnover rates in dangerous areas with the Crows 18th for defensive half turnovers.

The positive is they've improved on last year's midfield weakness, rising from 18th in clearance differential in the final month of 2025 to 7th in 2026 and are 4th across the season for score from centre bounce differential.

The other issue facing the Crows is selection. Their use of the new fifth bench rotation is puzzling with Matthew Nicks often prioritising pinch hit ruckman Toby Murray with limited impact.

Murray is second last for time on ground percentage (54 per cent) for players who've featured over 10 times. This decision came to a head last round when Murray had just two touches in 66 minutes.

Fans will farewell Taylor Walker at the Crows v GWS match on Saturday. (AAP: Matt Turner)

Meanwhile the management of retiring veteran Taylor Walker is in the spotlight after being flown to Perth but not selected for the finals shaping clash as a result of the clubs third game in 12 days; when the team faced cellar dwellers Richmond the week prior and could've rested their 36-year-old then.

It was an issue back in May when he played against Brisbane at the Gabba and then tore his hamstring in the Showdown five days later.

The AFL has openly said wildcard wins will be treated as a finals victory; news that was music to the ears of Essendon supporters who haven't won a final in over 8,000 days.

If Adelaide wins a match-up against a 10th placed side next weekend it might be a relief inside the four walls at West Lakes but will it satisfy a rabid fanbase?

We'll find out in a week's time.

You can hear ABC Sport's call of Adelaide v GWS from 7pm CST on ABC Listen and 891 ABC Adelaide.

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