Opinion polls from the research firm Infratest‑Dimap show the AfD leading with about 42 % of the vote, based on a survey of 1,511 eligible voters carried out on August 24‑25.

A state government led by the AfD would gain political leverage over areas that the state controls, especially education. The party’s manifesto calls for separate classrooms for refugee children and for a revision of the state’s history curriculum to focus more on what it describes as the positive aspects of Germany’s past.

Germany’s so‑called “firewall” strategy means that the major parties normally refuse to cooperate with extremist parties. Experts warn that if the AfD secures enough seats, the other parties may find it harder to block the AfD from entering the state cabinet.

Winning the state election would also give the AfD a seat in the Bundesrat, the federal council that represents the 16 German states. From that chamber the party could try to influence national legislation.

University of Cambridge historian Marcus Böick, who is from Saxony‑Anhalt, said a successful AfD government could have ripple effects across Germany and the European Union, and that once a party is in power it is very hard to remove it.