When the project was announced in 2023, PowerCo said the plant would eventually produce enough battery cells for roughly one million electric vehicles a year, a capacity that now looks uncertain.

The federal and provincial governments have pledged a total of $13.2 billion in production subsidies for EV and battery projects across Canada. Of that, Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada confirmed the federal contribution to the St. Thomas plant is $700 million, while Ontario covers about one‑third of the overall subsidy package.

Grieg Mordue – a former Toyota executive and retired McMaster University professor who studies the auto industry – argues the plant’s scale and location are inefficient. He notes that Volkswagen’s major assembly operations are in the southern United States and Mexico, meaning batteries would have to travel long distances to reach the vehicles they power.

Mordue also points out that the delay could lower the eventual subsidy bill. Most of the financial support is tied to the plant’s output, and the incentives are scheduled to start declining in 2030 and end in 2032, so the government is likely to pay “a whole lot less” than originally projected.