Senior Hurricane Center specialist Phillippe Pappin said the westernmost tip of mainland Mexico near Cabo Corrientes was the most likely place for a direct hit, noting that the eye was moving very close to, or parallel with, the coast.

Forecasters expect life‑threatening storm surge and large, destructive waves along the west‑central coast of Mexico. The powerful winds push seawater toward shore, raising water levels far above normal tides and creating massive waves that can breach coastal defenses.

The storm could bring 25‑50 cm of rain across much of the region, with some locations in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco receiving up to 76 cm. The National Hurricane Center warned that such rainfall will produce life‑threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.

When the surge pushes water inland and the heavy rain adds more water to already saturated soils, the combination can overwhelm rivers and drainage, leading to rapid flooding. On steep slopes, the saturated ground loses cohesion, triggering mudslides that can sweep away homes and roads.

In response, Jalisco state suspended classes in 22 coastal municipalities and began evacuating residents from at‑risk areas. Authorities also urged tourism workers and visitors to move to shelters or safe zones.