Vietnam is now in the upper-middle-income group.

But it's getting harder for Vietnam to grow its economy fast.

To reach its goal, Vietnam needs to grow its economy by over 10% each year.

Vietnam's old ways of growing its economy won't work anymore.

The country needs a new way to make its economy stronger.

A study by Professor Tran Tho Dat looked at how AI can help Vietnam.

The study asked how much AI can help Vietnam's economy grow.

The team didn't try to come up with a big, attention-grabbing number.

Many other studies estimate big economic gains from AI, but don't explain how.

This study used models to see how AI can help Vietnam's economy.

There are three possible futures for Vietnam's economy.

Economists are not sure how AI will affect productivity.

Some say AI will help the economy a lot, while others say it won't.

The study looked at three different scenarios for Vietnam's economy.

The first scenario is if AI is used naturally, without big changes.

The second scenario is if Vietnam focuses on industries that can use AI well.

The third scenario is if Vietnam makes AI a central part of its plan.

The difference between these scenarios is how well Vietnam prepares for AI.

This is the big question for Vietnam's next stage of growth.

Policy is as important as technology.

At first, the three scenarios won't be very different.

But after 2027, the scenarios will start to look very different.

The breakthrough scenario will start to grow faster than the others.

By 2045, the difference between the scenarios could be about 2% of GDP.

This could mean a big difference in Vietnam's economy, about $340 billion.

If Vietnam delays its AI plans, it could cost the country a lot.

The researchers say the next few years are a 'golden window of opportunity'.

Every year of delay will reduce growth and hurt the country's potential.

The study looks at how policy affects the economy, not just AI.

The same technology can have different effects depending on policy.

The researchers prioritize sectors that will have the most impact.

They looked at 21 industries and found four that are most important.

These four sectors will generate about half of AI's economic impact.

Investing in these sectors will create strong effects across the economy.

This approach aligns with Vietnam's goals for its next phase of growth.

But there is still a gap between ambition and actual outcomes.

To bridge this gap, Vietnam needs concrete policies on AI and more.

The study is about more than just AI.

It says that the same technology can have different effects with different policies.

If Vietnam wants AI to drive its economy, it needs to reform institutions and more.

The cost of delay will be measured in Vietnam's long-term economic growth.

Lan Anh