Super El Niño Suppresses 2024 Atlantic Hurricanes

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season looks unusually calm, leaving many to wonder why the usual June‑November storm surge has barely materialised.

So far this season the Atlantic has produced only six named storms, and most lasted just a couple of days.

Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University, said, “Normally we have to blame like four or five different things, but this year, I think we really can pretty much put all the blame on El Niño.” He added that the event is “very, very strong.”

The Pacific is experiencing a “super” El Niño. Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, warned that sea‑surface‑temperature anomalies could reach 2.6‑2.7 °C, surpassing the previous record of 2.4 °C set in the early 1980s. She said there is a 75 % chance it will be historic and a 90 % chance it will be very strong.

Long explained that the unusually warm eastern Pacific waters generate strong vertical wind shear over the Atlantic. This means fast winds high in the atmosphere and slower winds near the surface, a pattern that “destroys the hurricane structure” she said, because hurricanes rely on a vertically stacked system.

The same NOAA models project the El Niño to peak in November‑December and to linger into 2027, meaning the suppressing wind shear could continue well beyond the current season.

Because of the shear, forecasters expect only a few more storms, perhaps one or two forming in the Gulf of Mexico where shear is weaker. Overall, the season is expected to remain below average.

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Super El Niño Suppresses 2024 Atlantic Hurricanes

Super El Niño Suppresses 2024 Atlantic Hurricanes

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