US diesel export ban could lift Australian prices above $4/L and trigger fuel rationing

President Donald Trump has said he supports a ban on diesel exports from the United States. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the government is studying whether a full or partial ban is feasible.

Australia does not buy diesel directly from the United States, but it is the world’s biggest absolute diesel importer. The country takes about 10% of all seaborne diesel and represents roughly 1% of global fuel demand.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, warned that a U.S. ban could raise Australian diesel prices by about 50%, pushing the retail price to more than $4 a litre. He said rationing could be needed within weeks if the ban goes ahead.

Australia’s National Fuel Security Plan already outlines how to respond to a severe supply shock. Stage 3 calls for practical measures to cut fuel demand, while Stage 4 directs fuel supplies to be allocated fairly – essentially a rationing system.

The risk of a price spike is amplified by tight global diesel supplies. Conflict in the Middle East and the Ukraine‑Russia war have forced many refineries offline, and both Russia and China have cut their refined‑fuel exports, leaving the market strained.

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