When the opposition finally unveiled its migration plan, analysts warned it could dig a political sinkhole that benefits One Nation.

The Coalition’s plan, announced by opposition leader Angus Taylor, would cut net overseas migration (NOM) from just under 300,000 to 100,000 in each of the first two years, then raise it to 160,000 by the fourth year.

By contrast, One Nation proposes a negative NOM in the first years, moving to a net intake of 130,000 later, a more aggressive reduction than the Coalition’s target.

Simon Welsh of the Redbridge Group warned, “The Liberals talking about migration doesn’t create more Liberal voters, it creates more One Nation voters.” He added that immigration offers voters a simple explanation for their concerns, prompting them to ask who is the strongest voice on the issue.

Welsh also said the opposition may not have realised how a migration policy can open a political sinkhole – easy to fall into, hard to climb out of – especially when major parties validate voters’ anxieties.

The 2023 Parkinson review, commissioned by the government, highlighted the trade‑offs and competing concerns involved in migration reform, noting that implementing policy requires difficult decisions about balancing equally valid interests.

If the Coalition’s stance simply validates anti‑immigration sentiment, it risks handing One Nation a clear platform to attract disaffected voters, turning migration from a political advantage into a liability.