Alberta has traditionally been seen as Canada’s richest province by GDP per capita. It sits on abundant natural resources and, unlike other provinces, it does not charge a provincial sales tax.

Since 2014, unstable oil prices and cancelled pipeline projects have created a “lost decade”. The province fell into a recession in 2015‑2016 and Albertans’ purchasing power is now about 10% lower than it was in 2014.

Labour market signs have not improved much. Statistics Canada shows that Alberta’s unemployment rate has stayed above the national average since 2016, while average weekly earnings have struggled to keep up with inflation.

These economic setbacks have added momentum to the separatist debate. Charles St‑Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union, said the province’s under‑performance over the past ten years has given the independence movement new support, and a vote on Oct. 19 will decide whether to start a binding referendum.

Retired petroleum engineer Morad Rizkalla, who spent nearly four decades in Alberta’s energy sector, says he will vote for the option that launches the independence referendum, hoping to pressure Ottawa on issues such as equalization and market access.

Experts warn that breaking away would be costly. Estimates of the price tag vary from “tens of billions” to as much as $170 billion over five years, with one report projecting a $5 billion one‑time transition cost and another forecasting provincial debt could rise to $324‑$442 billion.

Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager at Trivest Wealth, notes that while Alberta may have the economic ability to stand alone, “the uncertainty around Alberta being landlocked is a significant issue,” reflecting his personal view on the logistical challenges.

In short, a long period of economic disappointment is driving many Albertans toward a vote on independence, even as the financial risks of secession remain huge.