A very strong El Nino is expected to last until early 2027, and the meteorological agency says it will bring unusually high winter temperatures to Vietnam. Understanding these changes is important for anyone who worries about the coming cold season.

September and early October saw temperatures 1‑2 °C above the long‑term average. Forecasts show November 2026 also 1‑2 °C warmer, and December 2026‑January 2027 about 0.5‑1.5 °C above normal.

Ta Thi Hong An, a forecaster at the Climate Forecasting Division of Vietnam's National Center for Hydro‑Meteorological Forecasting, explains that the extra warmth will weaken cold‑air masses. As a result, severe cold spells should arrive later and the north and north‑central regions will have fewer days of intense cold.

The agency also warns that rainfall in central Vietnam is likely to stay below the long‑term average, and the rainy season in the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam may finish earlier than usual. This will reduce river flows across the central and southern parts of the country.

Lower river levels could allow saltwater to move further inland in the Mekong Delta, starting earlier and becoming more severe than usual, which threatens communities and farms that depend on fresh water. Authorities therefore advise close monitoring of short‑term forecasts so that production schedules can be adjusted, response measures prepared, and lives and property protected.