Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has published the 2025 Climate Change Scenarios. For the first time the document gives extreme‑event information for warming thresholds of 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C above pre‑industrial levels.

Typhoon Yagi struck the northern coast in September 2024, killing 318 people and causing about US$3.3 billion in damage. The scenarios say that if global temperatures rise by 2 °C, a super‑typhoon like Yagi could hit Vietnam on average once every 13 years; at 3 °C the interval drops to nine years, and at 4 °C to seven years.

The same scenarios project a 30‑40 % increase in maximum one‑day and five‑day rainfall across the country, with a sharp rise in days of heavy rain, especially in the south. More intense rain means higher flood risk, which can threaten homes, farms and public health.

Because of these trends, the scenarios highlight the need to strengthen disaster prevention, response capacity and climate‑change adaptation. Investing now can reduce future losses.

The rising chance of Yagi‑strength storms means more danger to lives, health and the economy. Strengthening early warning systems, building codes and community preparedness will be essential for Vietnam’s future safety.