The upcoming durian season is facing a perfect storm of climate challenges. Understanding these risks helps explain why the price and supply of this beloved fruit may change soon.

Durian consultant Andrew Yeon says the shift from monsoon conditions toward a possible El Niño has created unpredictable weather, with hot, sunny mornings suddenly giving way to afternoon thunderstorms. This rapid change makes it hard for trees to stay stable during the crucial flowering stage.

Flowering is a critical period for durian, and sudden rainfall can interfere with pollination and reduce fruit setting, according to the source. The same unpredictable weather has also been reported in Johor, another key producing state.

Nor Sam Alwi, director‑general of the Department of Agriculture, warns that prolonged hot and dry weather linked to El Niño could cause water deficit, harming tree health, fruit retention and overall yield. Johor and Pahang together account for 60.3% of Malaysia’s durian output, so any stress in these states matters a lot.

A farmer known only as Chen told Sin Chew Daily that severe drought, haze and high pollution have stalled flowering at his orchard. He expects the harvest, originally planned for the end of January, to be pushed back to late February or early March.

Malaysia’s durian shipments to China have jumped from $5 million in 2024 to $37 million in 2025 and $30.26 million in the first half of 2026, while total production topped 600,000 tonnes in 2025. These figures show how climate‑related setbacks could soon affect both growers’ incomes and fruit prices.