Canadians now pay almost 30% more for groceries than they did five years ago, and prices have risen faster than overall inflation for more than a year.

Economist Jim Stanford and agriculture professor Mike von Massow explain that the surge is not random – climate shifts, immigration rules, tariffs and the way retailers set prices are all playing a part.

Dry weather across the western Prairies has left grass and hay scarce, forcing ranchers to cut their herds to record‑low levels. With fewer cattle, beef prices have climbed sharply, adding to the overall grocery bill.

At the same time, U.S. tariffs on Mexican tomatoes and a drop in U.S. farm labour – partly linked to recent immigration policies – have reduced the supply of tomatoes coming into Canada, making them noticeably more expensive.

The Retail Council of Canada says major grocers earn only two to four cents on every dollar of food sales, and any profit growth comes from non‑food items. This pricing approach, combined with limited competition, means food costs stay high for shoppers.

Understanding these forces shows how climate events, trade decisions and retailer strategies directly affect what Canadians pay at the checkout, and why simple price cuts are hard to achieve.