A strong El Niño is expected to shorten southern Vietnam’s 2026 rainy season and reduce rainfall, while temperatures in Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding areas may exceed 38 °C during the peak dry season in 2027. Understanding these changes is important for anyone who works, studies or lives in the region.

Forecasters predict that the rainy season could end 10‑15 days earlier than usual, most likely in the first half of November 2026. In November the area is expected to have about 7‑15 rainy days, dropping to 4‑10 days in December and only 2‑7 days in January 2027.

Total rainfall over the three‑month period is expected to be 5‑20 % below the long‑term average. The Southern Regional Hydrometeorological Station also notes that average monthly temperatures from November 2026 to January 2027 could be 0.5‑1 °C above the long‑term average, and that March‑April 2027 may see temperatures commonly reaching 35‑38 °C, potentially exceeding 38 °C.

The decline in precipitation increases the risk of water shortages during the dry season. Early planning is essential to limit adverse impacts on daily life.

Because the rains will stop sooner and the heat will be stronger, water availability may become tighter and daily routines could be disrupted. Conserving water and adjusting work or study schedules are practical ways to reduce the impact of the upcoming dry season.