Vietnam is moving away from the growth model that lifted it from poverty, aiming for high‑income status by 2045. Understanding this shift helps explain what policies are needed for the country’s next leap.

According to World Bank data, Vietnam’s GDP per capita has risen sixfold to more than US $5,000. The increase was driven by trade liberalisation, foreign investment, a shift of workers from agriculture to manufacturing and rapid capital accumulation.

World Bank Country Director Mariam J. Sherman warned that the three main growth drivers—a large workforce, rapid capital accumulation and deeper trade integration—are now approaching their limits. She also noted that Vietnam’s working‑age population peaked in 2014 and that the share of people over 65 is projected to double to 14 % by 2035, making productivity gains increasingly important.

A manufacturing worker in Vietnam adds about $6.70 of value per hour, less than half the level recorded in China, highlighting the urgency of boosting productivity. This gap underscores why higher productivity is essential for Vietnam’s high‑income ambitions.

The World Bank outlined four priorities for Vietnam’s next growth phase. First, improve job quality and close the skills gap, especially in digital and technical fields. Second, upgrade market connections and invest roughly $400 billion in transport and energy infrastructure. Third, turn climate risks into economic opportunities, which could raise GDP by nearly 3 % by 2040. Fourth, enact institutional reform to shift the government’s role from direct planning to enabling and regulating a more complex, innovation‑driven economy.

Vietnam’s experience shows that relying on a large labor force and cheap capital is no longer enough. Focusing on productivity, skills, infrastructure and institutional change will be key to reaching high‑income status.